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Potential Climate Change Projections for Arctic ACCASP Large Basin Assessments

Potential Climate Change Projections for Arctic ACCASP Large Basin Assessments. GCM and RCM Fields. Risk Assessments for Four “Large Aquatic Basins”. The Ocean basin assessments include freshwater ecosystems and their connections to marine ecosystems. Arctic. Pacific.

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Potential Climate Change Projections for Arctic ACCASP Large Basin Assessments

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  1. Potential Climate Change Projections for Arctic ACCASP Large Basin Assessments GCM and RCM Fields

  2. Risk Assessments for Four “Large Aquatic Basins” The Ocean basin assessments include freshwater ecosystems and their connections to marine ecosystems. Arctic Pacific • The Freshwater assessment includes two drainages (i) the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River, and (ii) the Prairies. Atlantic Freshwater • Need for “Coordinated” Large-scale Projections information • Same large-scale climate system • Overlaps and interconnections of the aquatic basins

  3. Area Covered by Total (All) Sea Ice in Subareas of Arctic – Widespread Decline Decrease per decade 14% 6% 4% 11%

  4. Potential Sources of Climate Model Projections for Arctic LAB RAs Global Climate Models (GCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) IPCC AR4 (CMIP3): - Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network http://www.cccsn.ca/?page=main - Possible availability of some fields from BIO/CCCMA or IOS IPCC AR5 (CMIP5): - CanESM2 monthly fields available from BIO - Possible availability of fields from some other models from IOS/CCCMA or BIO Regional Climate Models (RCMs): IPCC AR4 - North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ : Multiple models but incomplete coverage of Arctic - OURANOS on AMNO grid: CRCM4+CGCM3 ensemble with expanded coverage of Arctic - Perrie et al (BIO): CRCM3+CGCM3 on Arctic (1 run) and Large Atlantic (2 runs) - CORDEX Arctic domain: Multiple models but availability uncertain IPCC AR5 - Simulations on NARCCAP and CORDEX domains, but will not available in time

  5. Domains for RCM Downscaling of AR4 AOGCM Atmospheric Simulationsin NARCCAP, CORDEX and OURANOS North American Grids CORDEX Arctic Grid NARCCAP (NCRP): - 3-hr fields for multiple GCM+RCM combos, but limited coverage of Arctic AMNO (OURANOS): - time-averaged (e.g. monthly) fields for representative periods, with expanded coverage of Arctic Availability of fields for input to Arctic RAs is uncertain

  6. Domains for CRCM3 Downscaling of AR4 CGCM3 Atmospheric Simulationsby Perrie et al (BIO) Arctic Domain @ 45 km Large Atlantic Domain @ 45 km 2 members of A1B ensemble Atmospheric Fields available at 6 hrs for 1970-2069 1 member of A1B ensemble

  7. IPCC: Observed & Projected Surface Warming IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Sea Surface Temperature IPCC AR4, Ch. 10, Fig. 4.2: Multi-model means of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th-century simulation. Only small differences before 2040

  8. IPCC AR4 Multi-Model Ensemble: Projected Changes over 100 Yrs Temperature Annual Winter Summer Precipitation Projected multi-model ensemble temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes over North America from the 1980-1999 average to the average over 2080-2099. The mid-range A1B emissions scenario was used. Christensen et al. (2007).

  9. Projected Increases in Seasonal-Mean Air Temperature from 1971-2000 to 2041-2070 NARCCAP: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program CGCM3 Winter CRCM + CGCM3 Winter CRCM + CGCM3 Summer CRCM + CCSM Winter oC -2 0 7

  10. Projected Changes in Seasonal-Mean Precipitation from 1971-2000 to 2041-2070 NARCCAP: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program CGCM3 Winter CRCM + CGCM3 Winter CRCM + CGCM3 Summer CRCM + CCSM Winter % -50 0 50

  11. SIC: Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) & Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in March: Observed vs Two IPCC AR4 Models(1950-2000) Observed CCCMA CGCM3.1 Hadley CM3 SST: Courtesy of van der Baaren & Yashayaev Models have too much (little) ice in Labrador Sea (Gulf St Lawrence), and Gulf Stream too far north off Scotia-Maine. CGCM3 has too much cold water in Lab Sea.

  12. Temperature (T) and Salinity (S) at 100m in August: Observed vs Two IPCC AR4 Models(1950-2000) T: Observed CCCMA CGCM3.1 Hadley CM3 S: Courtesy of van der Baaren & Yashayaev Models are too fresh in subpolar gyre, and too saline over shelf/slope west of the Grand Bank

  13. Projected February Temperature Changes at 25m from 1990s to 2040s in 8 IPCC AR4 Models for A1B Red-yellow-green: T Increase Dark/light blue: T Decrease Contours -1, 0, 1 2040s: Overall warming in NWA in all modelsbut different and complex spatial structures with large areas of cooling! Questionable whether patterns are realistic Model Fields courtesy of B. Merryfield (CCCMA)

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