MPAT TE-5 Mongolia 31 July – 8 August 2003

1. MPAT TE-5 Mongolia 31 July – 8 August 2003 SCENARIO 18 Jun 03

2. NOVOSIBIRSK RUSSIA AYLAND CHOYBALSAN ULAANBAATAR MONGOLIA BARUUN URT BUFFER ZONE BELAND BEIJING PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA Mongolia, Ayland, Beland

3. RUSSIA AYLAND MONGOLIA BELAND CHINA

4. Road to Crisis • 1946. Ayland and Beland established. Border cuts through traditional herding area (largely in Beland) but Beland claims “disputed” area (includes city of Tamsagbulog). • 1983-1985. Oil and Uranium discovered in disputed area. Beland claims oil resources Ayland stations significant forces in area to protect resources. • 1997-Cross-border violence vicinity of Tamsagbulag (disputed area), southeast of Choybalson 100 dead. • 1999-Ayland and Beland air and ground units clash in oil reserve area • 2000-Oil reserves confirmed. Beland forces mass on border. • 2001-Beland invades Ayland, claiming “extermination” of ethnic brethren in Ayland. • 2001-UN General Assembly denounces Beland aggression. • 2003-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) confirmed cases in several DC camps, Choybalsan, Barun-Urt, and Tamsagbulag

5. Road to Crisis (continued) • 2003-UN Secretary General sends fact finding team to Ayland; team confirms atrocities on both sides. • 2003-Beland forces withdraw, but remain massed on border. • 2003-Parties agree to cease fire and establishment of buffer zone, but Beland claims oil reserves. Despite agreement by Ayland and Beland governments (“Ulaanbaatar Agreement, 15 Aug 03), many in the disputed area do not support the agreement. • 2003-Ayland appeals to UN for assistance, including MNF to maintain borders, help with internal security and humanitarian assistance. Ayland requests Mongolia as lead nation. UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1527, 22 Aug 03)

6. UN Assessment Team 15 Jun 03 • Confirms presence of rogue elements and terrorist activities , status of Dislocated Civilians, infrastructure damage. • Notes overcrowding and epidemics in several Dislocated Civilians camps • Confirms humanitarian assistance efforts threatened by insufficient security in DC camps

7. Situation 1 Aug 03 • Terrorist activities continue in disputed area. Terrorist cells operating out of Dislocated Civilian camps. • Thousands remain homeless and unprepared for harsh winter. • Ayland and Beland governments renounce terrorism. • Beland blames “rogue” elements for the continued terrorist activities. • Ayland and Beland ground forces continue to exchange fire, citing “provocations” by the other side. • Air and ground forces from both sides aggressively patrol oil reserve area-numerous clashes. • Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “zud” starting in November

8. “Ulaanbaatar Agreement” Cessation of Hostilities between Ayland and Beland 15 Aug 03 • Parties agree to withdraw behind current international borders (including a buffer zone) in disputed area. • Border dispute will be referred to International Court of Justice for resolution. • Dispute concerning resources will be referred to UN Dept of Political Affairs. • Both parties agree to Mongolia-led multinational task force to conduct peacekeeping operations and support HA/DR efforts. • Both parties agree to observe various international conventions concerning refugees and internally displaced persons, and agree to independent movement of NGOs etc.

9. 30 km 10 km 2.5 km 2.5 km 10 km 30 km BUFFER ZONE Border Specific conditions established in the Ulaanbaatar Agreement

10. BUFFER ZONE Border Ayland-Beland Military Exclusion Zone CTF “Khokh Chono” control No military No weapons No police No Observation No Technical monitoring 30 km 10 km 2.5 km 2.5 km 10 km 30 km

11. BUFFER ZONE Border Ayland/Beland Military Restricted Zone CTF “Khokh Chono” Control Military in barracks Weapons disarmed Local police Local Administration Admin re-supply No forward move 30 km 10 km 2.5 km 2.5 km 10 km 30 km

12. BUFFER ZONE Border CTF “Khokh Chono”Monitored Ayland/Beland Weapons Exclusion Zone No heavy weapons No air defense Military permitted No air defense radars 30 km 10 km 2.5 km 2.5 km 10 km 30 km

13. UNSC Resolution 152722 Aug 03 • Acknowledges Ulaanbaatar Agreement • Welcomes Mongolia as lead nation for MNF peace keeping force (peacekeeping and HA/DR facilitation) • Acknowledges Mr. Baatar Dorj from Mongolia as Special Representative of the Secretary General to be overall responsible for Human Rights, Humanitarian Assistance, CIV POL • Provides mandate for CTF • Separation of Ayland and Beland forces • Enforce buffer zone protocol • Support humanitarian assistance/disaster relief operations • Support Combating Terrorism efforts

14. Dislocated Civilians (DC) Camps 31 Aug 03 + + + + + + + Total 100,000 Total 25,000

15. Infrastructure Damageas of31 Aug 03 Tamsagbulag • Current population: 25K • Power plant destroyed • Oil/gas pipeline has been damaged for much of its length. Reconstruction will take at least 18 months • Water supply system damaged Hushuu Sume • Current population: 10K • Power plant destroyed • Local hospital destroyed by terrorists (no medical personnel) • Water supply system damaged • Power plants are coal-fired, and coal mines have been severely damaged and output is approximately 30% of normal production • Rail system is damaged. Rail provides transportation for coal and much of the vital supply. Zuunbulag • Current population: 15K • Power transmission lines from Baruun-Urt (capital city) destroyed • Water system severely damaged

16. Relief and Related Organizations in Ayland(Partial List)31 Aug 03 • UNHCR • UNOCHA • WFP • WHO • IOM • ICRC • Donors • USAID • AUSAID • JICA • CARE • MDM • MSF • OXFAM Australia • National Red Cross Society-Mongolia • People for North Asia Relief • Pan-Steppe Network • Ayland National Red Cross • Beland National Red Cross • Human Rights Watch