H1A: Understand How Solar Disturbances Propagate to Earth

1. H1A: Understand How Solar Disturbances Propagate to Earth Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space Correspondence between near-Sun and near-Earth CME substructures CME –CME & CME-solar wind coupling Radial profiles of CME velocity from Sun to Earth True angular extent of CMEs and shocks Radial Evolution of 3D CME structure Coronal and IP Drag force Radial evolution of shock standoff distance & geometry Coronagraph/heliospheric imager, radio-burst measurements of shock speed & strength from Sun to Earth Density, temperature and magnetic field structure of solar wind & CMEs within the first 30 Rs Use all available density, temperature and magnetic field info from the Sun to the magnetopause to model Sun-to-Earth CME evolution In situ field & particle measurements of CME structure at several radial locations Simultaneous imaging & in situ CME observations Theory Program Develop theory of particle acceleration by CME-driven shocks LWS/TR&T MHD models of CME propagation & comparison with observations. Model fast CMEs STEREO imaging and in situ CME observations from Sun to Earth, 3D CME structure ACE, Cluster, SoHO, Wind-CME & shock parameters, near-Earth SW/IMF INNER HELIOSPHERIC SENTINELS CME radial evolution SIRA -- Image particle acceleration site in shocks Required Understanding Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015 Existing Assets Enabling LWS mission Enabling STP Program LWS Program Enabling Potential Explorer Contributing SDO Solar Source of CMEs Enabling Flagship mission Solar Probe near-Sun CME structure NASA or Other Agencies Contributing STP Program MMS Near-Earth SW/IMF L1 Monitor, coronagraph - solar wind conditions 1

2. H1B: Identify how space weather effects are produced in geospace Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space Heavy ion influence on magnetospheric processes Ionosphere-thermosphere cross scale coupling Magnetic coupling and energy release (reconnection) Hemispheric I-T asymmetries Radiation belts: local or diffusive source? Coupling between near-Earth particles and fields Influence from above and below on the upper atmosphere Relative importance of internal and external drivers Low and midlatitude electrodynamics Data assimilation in geospace modeling Coordinated/simultaneous ionosphere-thermosphere measurements Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Coupled global geospace modeling tools Inner magnetosphere in situ and remote sensing measurements Multipoint measurements in connected regions of geospace Multipoint measurements near a reconnection site Radial alignment of magnetotail measurements Substorm Onsets (nominally via Auroral imaging) ACE, Cluster, IMAGE, FAST, Polar, TIMED Theory Program: IT coupling, RB physics, reconnection GEC, MMS STEREO provides quantitative link between in situ and remote sensing of CMEs ITSP+ITImager, RBSP SDO L1 Monitor, ORBITALS, RAVENS AIM, CNOFS, THEMIS, TWINS ITM Waves, SECEP Contributing Partnerships Modeling Advancements: Geospace General Circulation Model Rocket Campaigns: IT coupling, MI coupling Targeted Understanding Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015 Existing Assets Enabling STP Program Enabling LWS Program Enabling Explorer Program Contributing STP Program 2

3. H1C: Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space SDO UV input into system ITSP + ITImaging, GEC Required Understanding Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation, modulation, and coupling Parameterizations of turbulence and wave effects in GCMs Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Radiative cooling in response to variable energy deposition Horizontal and vertical energy and constituent transport Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Effect of solar variability on Neutral & plasma dynamics, structure, & circulation Do impacts of solar variability affect all layers of the atmosphere? Distinguish and identify the coupling between anthropogenic and natural mechanisms Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over a solar cycle Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface - 650 km? over a solar cycle First principles data-assimilating models for predicting atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Global imaging of the ITM Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Long term calibrated observations of changes in different atmospheric layers Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015 Existing Assets Theory Program: Wave interactions and Coupling Climate change mechanisms IMAGE, TIMED - changes in mesospheric temperature / thermospheric density Enabling Explorer Program Enabling LWS Program AIM - Polar mesospheric clouds CNOFS - changes in thermsopheric densities Model Development: Whole Atmosphere GCM Enabling Partnerships Candidate Explorers Contributing LWS Program Enabling DMSP, L1 Monitor, NPOESS Rocket Campaigns: Energy inputs, Atm. coupling ITMWaves, SECEP 3

4. H1D: Discover How Space Plasmas and Planetary Environments Interact Phase 2005-2015, Understand our Home in Space L1 Monitor GEC To understand the energy exchange processes in the current layer at the top of the atmosphere ITSP+ITImager To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms, EUV radiation Required Understanding Roles of varying atmospheric chemistry on heat, momentum, and energy transfer between atmospheric regions. Energy flow between plasma and neutrals Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation,modulation, and coupling. Plasma & neutral dynamics, structure, circulation, & instabilities Effects of planetary magnetic field geometry on energy and momentum transfer Variability of energetic particle precipitation patterns Morphology of ionospheric current systems Solar Wind Interactions Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Constellations of satellites in complementary orbits to resolve space-time ambiguities and enable predictive models Tomographic and occultation studies to quantify large-scale motions of plasmas and neutrals Simultaneous 3D plasma and neutral drift measurements Measurements of 3D particle distribution functions from thermal to tens of MeV Empirical and first-principles models for cause and effect based prediction Measure composition, temperature and winds of planetary upper atmospheres Implementation Phase 1: 2005-2015 Existing Assets Theory Program To include cross-scale coupling processes, and effects at the upper and lower boundaries of the atmosphere of the Earth and Mars CNOFS, IMAGE, TIMED, AIM, SDO Enabling STP Program Potential Explorer Contributing ITM Waves To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms and gravity waves Rocket Campaigns To provide high resolution, coordinated sampling of key mesospheric and thermospheric regions Model Development To include assimilation for nowcasting and forecasting Contributing Partnerships Enabling LWS Program Mars Aeronomy, MSL, MTO Mars L1 Monitor Contributing Partnerships 4

5. H2A: Identify Precursors of Important Solar Disturbances Phase 2015-2025, Understand our Home in Space Targeted Understanding CME magnetic field orientation Buildup of energy & helicity in coronal magnetic fields Relationship between CME shocks, flare/ CME current sheets and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Relationship between eruptive filaments, active regions, CMEs, and SEPs Evolution of global solar magnetic field Relationship between global field and solar disturbances Enabling Capabilities & Measurements CME magnetic field evolution behind the disk Radio burst measurements of near-Sun CME shocks Coronal vector magnetic field evolution and subsurface field evolution UV Spectroscopic determination of Pre/Post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/electron velocity distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets On-Disk UV/EUV Spectrographic imaging for flow velocities, energy release signatures; Disk Magnetograph for magnetic field topology and evolution Whether disturbance is geoeffective Near-Sun in situ measurements of charged particle distribution, composition, waves & fields; neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma rays Visible light Coronagraph/ Polarimeter for electron density structure and evolution Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025 Existing Assets Contributing LWS SDO for global magnetic field and active region measurements, ITSP, RBSP Contributing SHIELDS for tracking disk features behind the limb Enabling LWS Enabling STP Program SIRA to characterize CME shocks DOPPLER to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, SEP initiation, SEPP/NE to characterize sources of CMEs Enabling Flagship Mission RAM to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, SEP initiation, GEC impacts Solar Probe for near-Sun in situ observations Contributing Partnership Solar Orbiter for near-Sun in situ observations 5

6. H2B: Quantify mechanisms & processes required for geospace forecasting Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our home in Space Ionospheric outflow causes and effects Role of gravity waves in I-T physics Hemispheric auroral asymmetries Global dynamic magnetospheric topology Solar wind drivers of radiation belt dynamics Near-Earth plasma loss mechanisms Equatorial ionosphere-atmosphere coupling Auroral acceleration physics High latitude electrodynamics Data assimilation throughout geospace Multi-angle remote sensing of ionosphere-thermosphere Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Validation and improvement of global geospace modeling tools Multi-angle remote sensing of inner magnetosphere Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Constellation of satellites across the magnetopause Constellation throughout the magnetotail Conjugate auroral imaging GEC, ITSP, MMS, RBSP, ITSP, SDO, Sentinels Theory advancements: Particle acceleration, chaotic processes MagCon AMS, Dayside Boundary Con. GEMINI ITMW, Conjugate auroral imagers, Tropical ITM Coupler, SECEP Modeling Advancements: Validation/verification of GGCM Rocket Campaigns: Conjugate/interhemispheric studies Targeted Understanding Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025 Exisiting Assets Enabling STP Program Contributing ?? Program Enabling ?? Program Explorer Candidates NASA or Other Agencies L1 Monitor, Coronagraph 6

7. H2C: Integrate Solar Variability Effects into Earth Climate Models (joint with Earth Science) –Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our Home in Space Required Understanding UV effects on ecosystems Interactions among reactive species in middle atmosphere in response to solar variability Downward propagation of circulation anomalies into troposphere Variations and secular changes in stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex Changes in reactive and GH gases Changes in surface energy budget Development, persistence, and decay of stratospheric circulation anomalies Upward propagation of climate variability into middle and upper atmosphere, with consequent effects on circulation and wave dynamics Variations in clouds, temperatures, the hydrologic cycle, and winds Long term Climate Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Highly-resolved budgets of surface emissions of radiatively-active gases Continuous observations of high-frequency responses of atmospheric composition to varying solar input Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in polar vortex? Continued observations of the high-frequency variability of surface and tropospheric climate Accurately-calibrated planetary albedo at high spatial and spectral resolution Vertical profiling of chemical variations in the middle atmosphere Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025 Rocket Campaigns: Polar Night, Calibration/Validation, Test flights Model Development: Whole Atmosphere GCM with coupled land, oceans, and chemistry Enabling SECEP, ITMWaves L1 and L2 for continuous global obs (includes SW/IMF irradiance monitor) Explorer Candidate Theory Programs: Radiation, Hydrology, and Life; EPP and clouds; Strat-trop coupling Profiling temperature and composition 7

8. H2D: Determine how magnetic fields, solar wind and irradiance affect the habitability of solar system bodies - Phase 2015-2025, Understand Our Home in Space Targeted Understanding Magnetosphere - atmosphere – surface coupling Quantitative drivers of the geospace environment Impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres and surfaces Photochemistry of planetary atmospheres Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Extremes of the variable radiation environments at solar system bodies Dust environments of planetary bodies How magnetospheres evolve Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs to planetary atmospheres Density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface through thermosphere for planetary bodies First principles data-assimilating models for planetary bodies which describe atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Ionosphere / Magnetosphere Imaging Observations of near sun environment Combined debris disk and 3-d MHD models Implementation Phase 2: 2015-2025 Solar Probe, RBSPPlasma physics of near-star environments Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Existing Assets Explorer Candidate Enabling Partnerships MSL, Spitzer, Geospace System Response Imager (GSRI), ITM Waves Mars Aeronomy Probe (MAP), Titan Explorer (TE), Lunar Solar Wind History Experiment Europa Mission Model Development: Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Combined disk/plasma models Contributing Strategic mission Venus Aeronomy Probe (VAP), Space Physics Package Rocket Campaigns: Coupling 8

9. H3A/B: Provide scientific basis for continuous forecasting of conditions throughout the solar system - Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Understand the system dynamics throughout geospace Understand the system coupling throughout geospace Understand the system nonlinearities throughout geospace Mature data assimilation techniques Complete coverage of I-T system Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Robust, mature, and fast global geospace modeling tools Complete coverage of inner magnetosphere Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Complete coverage of magnetotail Complete coverage of dayside boundaries Conjugate auroral imaging Existing Assets: MagCon, AMS, ITM-Waves, GEMINI, Dayside Boundary Con. Theory advancements: System nonliearities and feedbacks New Explorer Missions: Conjugate auroral imagers, ACE replacement New Strategic Missions: IMC, ITC Modeling Advancements: Operational transition of GGCMs Rocket Campaigns: Regular launches and long-duration balloons Targeted Understanding Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 3: 2025-2035 9

10. H3C: Forecast Climate Change (joint with Earth Science) Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Required Understanding Interactions among atmospheric radiation, composition, structure, hydrologic cycle, and clouds Interactions of solar photons and energetic particles with atmospheric composition Responses of surface energy partition and emissions of radiatively-active gases Changes in spectral (e.g., UV) and directional (direct vs diffuse) characteristics of solar radiation at surface Propagation of solar photons throughout atmosphere and interaction with clouds and aerosol Upward propagation of climate changes via waves and mean flows Quantitative attribution of climate variations to solar vs internal forcing Global electrodynamic circuit Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Continuing global observations of the sun, geospace, and Earth’s climate Systematic and continuing model evaluation using ongoing observations Prediction of future climate change with well-tested coupled models that include solar interactions Whole Earth system data assimilation including life, chemistry, oceans, land, the atmosphere to 650 km Solar subsurface and deep interior convective flows to understand relationship between dynamo, flows, solar cycle Implementation Phase 3: 2025-beyond Model Development: Prediction of external and internal forcing and response New Explorer Missions: Active atmospheric profiling for chemistry and structure Detailed characterization of changing hydrologic cycle? Enabling Solar Polar Imager TITMC, L1 Monitor (irradiance, particles) SECEP, SHIELDS New Partnership Missions: Global Alt. distribution Temperature / Composition monitor Contributing AAMP

11. H3D: Determine how stellar activity and plasmas affect planetary formation and evolution that govern habitability through time -Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Required Understanding Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence What determines the habitability of planets Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance What are the impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres? Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Evolution of Planetary systems from proto-planetary debris disks Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Magnetospheric – atmospheric – surface coupling Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Observational and predictive capability for spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over short and long time scales Operational first principles data-assimilating models for planetary atmospheres which predict atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface - thermosphere for planetary bodies Observations of solar cycles on other Sun-like stars to understand relationship of rotation rate & dynamo Combined debris disk and 3-d MHD models Observations of debris disks around other stars Observations of momentum transfer to planetary magnetospheres Implementation Phase 3: 2025-2035 JPO Transfer of momentum between rotating magnetized bodies and their surrounding plasmas Enabling Strategic missions Explorer Candidate Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Titan Explorer (TE) GSRI Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF), the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Stellar Imager Theory Program: Properties of dusty plasmas Existing Assets: ITM-Waves Model Development: Operational Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Rocket Campaigns: Model Development: Combined disk/plasma models 11