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Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach

Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach. Paul Morris CIS144. Problem Analysis. Decision Analysis. Past. Potential Problem Analysis. What is the fault?. Present. How to correct the fault?. Future. How to prevent future faults?. Situation Analysis (Where are we?).

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Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach

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  1. Deciding the Course of ActionThe Kepner-Tregoe Approach Paul Morris CIS144

  2. Problem Analysis Decision Analysis Past Potential Problem Analysis What is the fault? Present How to correct the fault? Future How to prevent future faults? Situation Analysis(Where are we?)

  3. “You think you have problems” • Timing • How urgent is the problem? • Is a deadline involved? • What will happen if nothing is done for a while? • Bakery and malfunctioning oven

  4. “You think you have problems” • Trend • What is the problem potential for growth? • Bakery and malfunctioning oven

  5. “You think you have problems” • Impact • How serious is the problem • What are the effects on the people, the product, the organization, and its policies? • Bakery and malfunctioning oven

  6. “You think you have problems” • “You know it’s a really bad day when” problem

  7. Pareto Analysis and Diagram • This method shows the relative importance of each individual problem to the other problems in the situation. • This analysis draws its name from the Pareto Principle (80% of the trouble comes from 20% of the problems) • Vital few concerns vs. the trivial many

  8. Toasty O’s Product Problem A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred) • 10,000 B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight) • 30,000 C. Boxes damaged during shipping • 2,000 D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale) • 25,000 E. No prize in box • 50,000

  9. Toasty O’s Boxes Analysis

  10. Toasty O’s Product Problem A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred) • $100 B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight) • $6,000 C. Boxes damaged during shipping • $7,000 D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale) • $87,500 E. No prize in box • $17,500

  11. Boxes vs. Lost Revenue

  12. K.T. Problem Analysis and Troubleshooting The basic premise of KT PA is that there is always something that distinguishes what the problem IS from what it IS NOT. Fear of Flying Problem

  13. Decision Analysis • Prepare a decision statement with both an action and a result component • Establish strategic requirements (Musts), operational objectives (Wants), and restraints (Limits) • Rank objectives and assign relative weights • Generate alternatives

  14. Decision Analysis • Assign a relative score for each alternative on an objective-by-objective basis • Calculate weighted score for each alternative and identify top two or three • List adverse consequences for each top alternative and evaluate probability and severity • Make a final single choice

  15. Example of Decision Analysis • Our company is looking for a new site for construction of a branch office. • We have determined our MUSTs and several other factors to consider • Two sites have been brought to our attention.

  16. General Factors for Our Example

  17. Comparative Analysis

  18. Potential Problem Analysis • Potential Problems • Deadlines, Something New • Complexity, Unfamiliar • Assigning Responsibility, • Possible Causes • Preventative Action • Contingent Actions

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