The Future of GIS

1. The Future of GIS …if I really knew, would I still be here?

2. Popular Mechanics, 1954???

3. Lessons: • There are perils in predicting the future! • Never believe what you find on the Internet! Picture submitted to an image modification competition in 2004, taken from an original photo found on U.S. Navy web site of a submarine maneuvering room console mock-up at the Smithsonian Institute in 2000 http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/computer.asp

4. Uses of GIS: no change The primary three: • manage data • analyze data • communicate information* BUT • relative importance shifting • implementation technology changing *information=data which serves a purpose

5. Changing Emphases:From Data to Analysis Spatial Analysis Spatial 5% Analysis 10-15% Attribute Tagging Attribute Tagging 75% Data Conversion: Data Conversion Present/Future Past

6. Changing Emphases From Description to Simulation & Modeling Visual simulation & virtual reality: real time display of how is, and how might be -forest fire -freeway traffic flow Web portals serve continuous sensor-derived data Picture worth a thousand words: maps & diagrams of how is, or how was Web portals serve static data sets Past Future Symbolic models: based on logical relationships in mathematical or statistical form Iconic models: scaled down representations of the real thing

7. 9:15 am 4:30 pm 10:15 pm Population density (green is high) at different times during the day tracked by cell phone data. Rome, Italy, July 10, 2006. (note: cell phone location is constantly tracked by the network to enable calls to be received.) Applications: real time traffic information, transportation planning, taxi-cab location, retail store location, etc., etc.. Source: The Economist, March 10-16, 2007 p. 20.

8. Past 2-D flat map displays User as observer Future Effective 3-D visualization Via the merger of CAD and GIS? What is the data model? 4-D incorporation of time: “The time has come for time.” Via agent-based modeling / cellular automata? Or how? agents (e.g. vehicles, fires or people) interacting over time in a raster (cell)-based environment according to established rules 5, 6 and 7-D incorporation of touch (pressure, texture, temperature), sound and smell into modeling/simulation environment Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World “feelies” become reality? User as participant Users (researchers, professionals, the public) interact with the model Participatory GIS: the public as the planner Changing Emphasesfrom 2-D description to 4-D interaction

9. Changing Emphases:Out of this world Past • GIS applied to Planet Earth Future • GIS as a methodology for the analysis of spheres • Other planets—Mars, Jupiter, • The human brain • One earth but many brains • & visa-a-versa: does the brain use “maps” for organization?

10. Defense Conversion (and other) spin-offs Location via GPS millimeter accuracy available in every cellphone for E-911 super high capacity mass storage pettabyte and more systems high resolution (<1m) satellite remote sensing High resolution: 60 cms now, 10cms soon? Real time Google Earth? the communication revolution super high capacity networks (Internet X), even to the home NSF’s 100x100 project: 100 Megabits to 100 million homes wireless (cellular) communication with anything that moves anywhere on earth Information Technology Evolution Interoperability: easier sharing of data between users, and among vendor products Metadata Spatial Data Transfer Standards OpenGIS Mash-ups commercially enhanced data public data made dramatically more usable/useful Navtech maps replace TIGER spatial data tools in commercial DBMS* and software dev. environments (e.g. VB**) ESRI SDE (spatial database engine) ESRI Map Objects & ArcObjects 3-tier computing, separating: user interface (client workstation) analysis (applications server) data (multiple distributed data servers) Technological Trends Underlying the Transition *DBMS: data base management systems **Visual Basic

11. Consequences GIS gone by 2010? (I used to say by year 2000) Hopefully not! …it will become mainstream

12. fundamental component of IS/IT value explode, name gone foundation for all data management? at best: geography becomes the basis for data management at least: spatial data base management tools come with all commercial DBMSs so geography can enhance the enterprise data base gis components embedded in everyday objects cell phones, pagers, cars, truck cabs, aircraft cockpits gis capabilities available as modules within standard software application development environments VB, C++, Java, Peoplesoft, Delphi gis/am/fm functionality purchased as undifferentiated component of a business application information system outage management for utilities city business package package tracking system (pizza or spare parts) general public as GIS analyst Web-based community information systems neighborhood crime control : police or citizen? poets that don’t know it Google Earth Sketch-up Bloggers as GIS analysts: they know the local scene And Google is bringing free, simplified mapping tools Wither GIS?some scenarios

13. Consequences: forGI Services • Services now the 4th “S” in GIS • location based services for organization . for individual • Map facilities where I am • Geocode customers where I want to go • Route deliveries how I get there • Analyze the market what is there • Content tailored for current location, not the desktop • Mobile • Handheld • Interactive • Evolution involves Past Future • Few applications -> many and varied • Few users -> many • Standalone -> web • Fixed -> mobile

14. Consequences: for GI Specialists(the fifth “S” for GIS?) geospatial information scientists, specialists (or students) • appreciative of the broad ranging, integrative role geospatial data can play • location is the most common common denominator for all data • highly knowledgeable with respect to the unique challenges of geospatial data • The challenges posed by a spherical earth (datums, projections,etc.) • The complexity of spatial data representation in 2-D and 3-D • The challenges of spatial statistics and modeling • fully conversant with mainstream information technology • and how to store and program spatial objects • sufficient expertise in an application area (geology, local government, marketing, etc.) to make a contribution.

15. Consequences for GISData is still at the heart • Dominant IT (Information technology) issues: • Hardware in the 1970s and 1980s • Software in the 1980s and 1990s • Data in the 2000s • Not an issues of acquiring data, but of managing it • Will we be short of it, or drowning in it? • Will its availability be • Plentiful and cheap • in infinite detail, if you can afford it • Severely curtailed by legal controls to ensure personal privacy

16. Consequences for GIS:is a Tragedy of the Commons in the making? • Invasions of privacy through detailed data collection and its pervasive distribution produces a backlash of demand for privacy • No call, no spam, no appraisal photos, no red light cameras (now reversed): are they the beginning? • Could geotagging with RFID devices become reality • From pets to people • for sex offenders, service personnel, employees, evacuees, everybody? • The expense of data production, but the ease of re-production and distribution, reduces the value of data to zero and chokes off its availability • Is public domain data the information age equivalent of the agricultural commons? What are the appropriate public policy responses?

17. Or is this the future?A Self Generating System Better data More investment in Data/GIS More GIS use Better decisions

18. Or this? Microdrone $21,367 Base Station $19,424 Video Transmitter $1,545 Video Receiver $1,000 Daylight Video $1,545 Lowlight Video $3,100 GPS Hold $1,934 Complete Package $59,681 August 2007 Source: http://www.microdrones.com/

19. Conclusion • Our only model for the future is the past • think back as many years as you are looking forward • change has been both revolutionary.. and glacial • don’t forget that the pace of change is accelerating • maybe just gearing-up for the information age, not reaching its climax • but remember,we have to get there from here • can you envision a path? • if we knew the future, we wouldn’t be here!

20. GIS FuturesSome Detail on earlier concepts • What GIS Technology Could Deliver • Efficiency and Effectiveness • Targeted Communication • data as an institutional asset • Operating Environments in which Delivered • business and governments • computing technology • information architectures • interoperability

21. What GIS Technology Could Deliver:Efficiency and Effectiveness • Cost efficient, quality service to customers: the key to future business success • mapping to manage potentially transforms organizations • geography is the key to cost efficiency for pizza delivery or cellular radio towers • communications with citizens: the key to future public sector success • map based information is the key to intuitive information delivery • travel directions (www.mapquest.com) • natural or social environmental degradation (http://www.epa.gov/tri/) • land ownership (www.dallascad.org) • General public data (www.accu-source.com, www.publicdata.com, www.openrecords.org)

22. What GIS Technology Could Deliver:Targeted Communication Displaying data differently for today’s target constituency: • governor • recalcitrant group of legislators • activist (pissed-off) citizen posse • CC, DRT, DAR, VFW, CCNA Tuesday luncheon* • general public • 6th grade class Do-It-Yourself extraction from Societal Databases • large, networked databases accessible to public at low/no cost • free browser software (e.g ArcExplorer) Content tailored for current location • The mobile, handheld, interactive GI services revolution *CC: Chamber of Commerce DRT: Daughters of the Republic of Texas DAR: Daughters of the American Revolution VFW: Veterans of Foreign Wars CCNA: Canyon Creek Neighborhood Association

23. What GIS Technology Could Deliver: Data as an Institutional Asset Data holdings, managed by GIS, as an asset on private and public corporation balance sheets. • no company does this today, yet • billions spent on data acquisition and development In the information age, information is an asset no different from buildings, unsold inventory, and machinery. In 2000s, companies delivering information content become dominant over hardware (1980s) and software (1990s) companies.

24. Operating Environments:Business & Governments • customers and citizens take charge • requirements for service defined by customer/citizen not the provider • demand more in shorter time at lower cost than you ever intended to deliver • lower taxes/prices and more service • Henry’s “any color you want as long as its black” no longer cuts it • competition is relentless • more people wanting to do what you do • private sector assumes (or re-assumes) many gov. tasks. • change is constant • Government evolves from driver to consumer of technology • Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software rather than custom designed • decentralization to the individual • Much new technology is not new: its been around for a while, so what’s new? • Computers, video recorders, fax, wireless • Dramatic price drops make it as available to individuals as to organizations

25. Operating Environments:Computing Technology: Predictions from Spring 96 • 2,000AD desktop machine • 1,000 MIPS/MHertz • 8 Gigabyte RAM (permits data in memory) • 100+ mb/sec comm. line (to the home?) • Windows95/NT merge challenges UNIX • Java /Netscape challenges Microsoft (prediction as of Spring 96)

26. Operating Environments:Computing Technology: Predictions from Fall 99 • Desktop loses its dominance • Variety of computing appliances: palmtops on up • Computers act rather than just process • Old model: human enters data, computer processes it, human receives and acts • New model: data from sensors & transducers, computer processes, computer acts to get job done • Data and computation become real time • Old model: processing archived data to guide future action • New Model: processing current data to control current action • Information and its processing at any and every place • Mobile and wireless dominate over fixed and wired • Info access no matter where I am, where data resides, what its format is Concepts derived from Tennenhouse, Director, DARPA, May 1998

27. Operating Environments: Information Architecture(more 1999 predictions which have come to pass) • server and client clearly separated • GIS vendors specialize in client and/or applications server • mainstream database vendors provide data server(s)(traditionally, GIS vendors used proprietary, not mainstream, databases) • client systems primarily comprise browsers which receive data combined with software as “applets” or objects from the applications server • e.g. receive data and zoom/view software • potentially simplifies software management • big software systems are decomposed into components (“objects”), which are then re-assembled by user (or developer) as desired. • mainstream data base vendors meet GIS/AM/FM needs for: • long transaction processing • current DBMS systems assume immediate transaction processing, but • a drawing or map takes time to be modified • replication of data files • considered a no-no in current DBMS, but • two people need to work on the same map area

28. Spatial Data Interchange Formats VPF (Vector Product Format): US Military for map products; directly useable by applications DXF (Data Exchange Format): originated by AutoCAD SDTS (Spatial Data Transfer Standard): currently required for Federal Agencies Except for VPF, involve translation (from internal private to external public format), therefore inefficient. Between Standard Data Base Systems SQL (Structured Query Language) standardized (supposedly) user-oriented (supposedly) data request ODBC (Open Database Connectivity) standardized (by Microsoft) programming (‘call’) level interface to databases Between GIS Systems and other applications COM/OLE (Common Object Model/Object Linking and Embedding): originated by Microsoft CORBA (Common Object Request Broker Architecture) Two competing standards for object-based technology. Between GIS Systems Themselves (for data) SQL3 --SQL extended to support spatial (and other multimedia) data queries ISO TC211--International Standards Organization Tech. Committee on spatial data ANSI X3L1 (American National Standards Institute, GIS Committee)--US view for ISO OGC (Open GIS Consortium)--Open Geodata Interoperability Specification (OGIS) Metadata--data describing data datum and projection, accuracy and lineage, etc. FGDC (Federal Geographic Data Committee) Metadata standard Operating Environments: Interoperability

29. Next Generation Satellites • NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) signed NextView contracts for development of next generation of commercial satellites, with DOD being given priority access in times of need • Digitalglobe contract in fall 2003, focused on • Higher resolution • Delivery time to customer • 3 hours now (Iraq war) • Future: 90 minutes standard, 20 minutes “rush jobs” • WorldView-1 launched September 2007 • .5 m panchromatic • 1.7 days revisit • WorldView-2 launch 2008 • .5 panchromatic and 1.8 multispectral (4) • 1 day revisit • Supplier for Google Earth • Orbimage contract in fall 2004 • OrbView 5 satellite to launch early 2007 (now early 2008) • 0.41 m panchromatic, 1.64 m multispectral (4 bands) • 3 m. position accuracy • 3 day revisit • Downlink imagery real time to ground station Note: the award of this contract to Orbimage resulted in their acquisition of Space Imaging (which failed to get the contract) in January 2006 and renaming of the combined entities as GeoEye. OrbView 5 now called GeoEye-1 http://www.geoeye.com/corporate/constellation.htm