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Influence of Orography on R ainfall Distribution and Water Resources in Guadeloupe

Canal des Saintes – Ouragan David - 28/08/1979 - M. Morell. Influence of Orography on R ainfall Distribution and Water Resources in Guadeloupe. Marc Morell - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement Philippe Palany – Météo-France Dominique Rossignol, ORSTOM ✚

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Influence of Orography on R ainfall Distribution and Water Resources in Guadeloupe

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  1. Canal des Saintes – Ouragan David - 28/08/1979 - M. Morell • Influence of Orography on • Rainfall Distribution and Water Resources • in Guadeloupe Marc Morell - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement Philippe Palany – Météo-France Dominique Rossignol, ORSTOM ✚ • CARIBSAT Project • WWW.CARIBSAT.COM Berlin, EMS 2011

  2. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Monthly and Yearly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  3. Introduction – Location Guadeloupe Caribbeansea Berlin, EMS 2011

  4. Introduction - Geography La Soufrière Landsat Satellite Image of Guadeloupe islands Berlin, EMS 2011

  5. Introduction – Climate Monthlyaverages of temperatures and rainfalls in Le Raizet (source Meteo-France) Maxi. Temperatures Rainfalls Mini. Temperatures Berlin, EMS 2011

  6. Cliamte changes effects Guadeloupe Hurricane Ivan – 7 September 2004 Berlin, EMS 2011

  7. Introduction – Main studies • 1978 – ORSTOM - Monographie des ressources en eau de surface de la Guadeloupe, Chaperon P. & al. • 1990 – ORSTOM – Travaux de Dominique Rossignol, Physicien de l’Atmosphère & al. • 1994 – ORSTOM – La Guadeloupe au fil de l’eau, Marc Morell & al. • 1996 – METEO-France – Le régime pluviométrique de la Guadeloupe, N. Bleuse & C. Mandar • 2010 – METEO-France – Analyse des sécheresses en Martinique, Philippe Palany, Projet CARIBSAT Berlin, EMS 2011

  8. Introduction – Networks and Data • ORSTOM, started to implement a rainfallrecording network in Basse-Terre mountains in 1960’ • ORSTOM has completedits network withelectronic stations equipedwith ARGOS transmitters in 1984 • In 1990, 35 stations weremanaged by ORSTOM, 2/3 of themat an elevationhigherthan 300 m • In 1990, around 4500 years/stations of rainfalldaily data wereavailable on Guadeloupe archipelago La Soufrière, Dent de l’Est – R. Calvez Berlin, EMS 2011

  9. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Monthly and Yearly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources Assessment • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  10. Thermic and OrographicPhenomena Thermic Orographic Landsat Satellite Image of Guadeloupe islands Berlin, EMS 2011

  11. Thermic and OrographicPhenomena Rainfall Gradient for 1 km : from 150 mm Upwind to 600 mm Downwind 11 m 2.5 m 1 m West East Transect fromCapesterre to Vieux-Habitants Berlin, EMS 2011

  12. Short time stepsIntensities • Nb Hours per year = 1,58 Altitude + 152 R2 .95 • Yearly rainfall = 6,45 Altitude + 1234 R2 .92 Altitude Berlin, EMS 2011

  13. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Yearly and Monthly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources Assessment • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  14. Yearly and MonthlyVariability Soufrière 20 km Annualprecipitation distribution Berlin, EMS 2011

  15. Yearly and MonthlyVariability • 7 homogeneous climatic areas were defined by ORSTOM in 1984 • Regulation of Rainfall regimes by orographic effect • on interannual variability • on seasonal distribution • Homogeneous areas Berlin, EMS 2011

  16. Yearly and MonthlyVariability Ratio Humid /Dry Year - Frequency 1/10 • 7 homogeneous climatic areas were defined by ORSTOM in 1984 • Regulation of Rainfall regimes by orographic effect • on interannual variability • on seasonal distribution 1.6-1.7 1.8 1.6-1.7 1.4-1.5 1.3 • Interannual Variability 1.6-1.7 Berlin, EMS 2011

  17. Yearly and MonthlyVariability • 7 homogeneous climatic areas were defined by ORSTOM in 1984 • Regulation of Rainfall regimes by orographic effect • on interannual variability • on seasonal distribution • Seasonal distribution Berlin, EMS 2011

  18. Yearly and MonthlyVariability Ratio Maximum/Minimum MonthlyRainfall • 7 homogeneous climatic areas were defined by ORSTOM in 1984 • Regulation of Rainfall regimes by orographic effect • on interannual variability • on seasonal distribution • Seasonal distribution Berlin, EMS 2011

  19. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Monthly and Yearly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources Assessment • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  20. Daily and HourlyAnalysis • Maximum thermic effect on the North of Basse-Terre with pick in the early afternoon Berlin, EMS 2011

  21. Daily and HourlyAnalysis • Maximum thermic effect on the North of Basse-Terre with pick in the early afternoon • Maximum orographic effect on the top of the mountains in Basse-Terre with occurrence of rainfall during the night explained by the decrease of the temperature of the top of the clouds Berlin, EMS 2011

  22. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Yearly and Monthly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources Assessment • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  23. Short time stepsIntensities • Statistical Analysis of Intensities in one minute • Important contribution of low intensities (< 10 mm/h) in the total amount of rainfall in mountains • Increasing contribution of higher intensities on the slopes • No orographic effect on the heaviest intensities clearly linked with convective thermic phenomena • The strongest rainfall intensities for duration from 5 mn to 3 hours are not related to hurricanes Berlin, EMS 2011

  24. Short time stepsIntensities Influence of the wind on the measurement of rainfall A Incidographe – Marc Morell 1985 Hurricane David – 28/08/1979 – M. Morell Berlin, EMS 2011

  25. Short time stepsIntensities Statisticalanalysis - METEO-France Rainfall in mm in Le Raizet for various time periods Berlin, EMS 2011

  26. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Monthly and Yearly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  27. Water Resources • ORSTOM Hydrometric network • in Basse-Terre Basse-Terre = 95% of the WR of the Guadeloupe island Chutes du Carbet - M. Morell Berlin, EMS 2011

  28. Water Cycle Balance Yearlyrainfall basis : 5000 mm Berlin, EMS 2011

  29. Summary • Introduction • Thermic and Orographic Phenomena • Yearly and Monthly Variability • Daily and hourly analysis • Short time steps intensities • Water Cycle and Water Resources Assessment • Climate Changes Effects • Comments Berlin, EMS 2011

  30. Climate Changes effects • Climate changes will increase the vulnerability of the ecosystems and human population of the tropical islands : • Anthropogenic activities (pollution, sedimentation), increasing temperatures and acidification of ocean are impacting the marin ecosystems (mangrove destruction, coral bleaching, etc.) • Rising sea levels and disappearance of the coral reefs will lead coastal erosion processes, salt water intrusion, etc. • More frequent and longer dry periods and more frequent and intense meteo-marin events are expected during the next decades • Decreased water resources and higher atmosphere temperatures (2 to 3° in 2050) will induce serious consequences on agriculture, biodiversity and sanitary issues (vector diseases), etc. Berlin, EMS 2011

  31. Climate Changes effects IncreasingNumber of Tropical Storms on North Atlantic Ocean 1966-2007 Source NHC Miami, Wind speed > 63 km/h Average : 10,4/year mini 1983 : 4 max 2005 : 27 Berlin, EMS 2011

  32. Climate Changes effects • In 1989, Dominique Rossignol studied the relationships between El nino and QBO occurrences and the yearly rainfall variability and its seasonal distribution. • Among the main results : • 90% of El Nino events are followed by severe droughts during the “Carême”, like in 1983 and 1987, and a predictive method must be implemented • Orography and elevation are significant local modifiers of sub-regional climate change Berlin, EMS 2011

  33. Comments • Guadeloupe appears as an ideal laboratory for studying the rainfall distribution in tropical islands • Specific thermic and orographic effects can be analysed • Long data series are available • In this presentation, we have reported on the main achievements obtained 20 years ago when the concept of climate changes was very new • In the present context of climate changes, water resources scarcity and biodiversity conservation, it is urgent to implement some monitoring networks at Caribbean scale which will provide the scientists with all necessary data • to improve the knowledge on the dynamic of the phenomena generating rainfall and water resources, and • to give a better accuracy to the downscaling of the regional climatic change models Berlin, EMS 2011

  34. Grand-cul-de-sac-marin – 1979 - M. Morell www.CARIBSAT.com Berlin, EMS 2011

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