Decision support systems for ocean ecosystem-climate interactions

1. Decision support systems for ocean ecosystem-climate interactions Francisco Chavez Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute and mostly others

2. Conclusions • Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the framework today to develop ecological forecasts useful for society • Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global change) and our theory will need to constantly evolve • NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond chlorophyll • Better working relationships between resource managers and NASA should be fostered

3. Roadmap • How did we get here • Approach • Case Studies • The way forward

4. The CUEA proposal funded by NSF in the 70s said: “The goal of the Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems Analysis Program is to understand the coastal upwelling ecosystem well enough to predict its response far enough in advance to be useful to mankind.” [in the management of living marine resources]. During the 1970s Bob Smith, Dick Dugdale and Dick Barber believed that, in coastal upwelling research, physics and biology together would be more thanthe sum of the parts and together could deliver an applied science product regarding management of living marine resources. CUEA was successful as an interdisciplinary basic research project; but CUEA failed to deliver an applied science product it had promised regarding management of living marine resources. What didn’t CUEA deliver? Why not? Is progress being made?

5. According to Barber Conclusions regarding “useful to mankind” forecasting: 1. Goal was inherently unattainable in 1972 to 1980. 2. Limitations (deficiencies) in both in theory and technology. 3. The deficiencies in theory (food web structure, Fe, remote forcing, decadal variability) were serious, but a lot (~75%?) of the 1972/1980 physical and biological theory was correct. 4. Technological limitations in computation, observing systems and information handling infrastructure were fatal due to the constraints they imposed (undersampling, inadequate space and time resolution and inadequate model complexity.) 5. These technical limitations were unconceivable at the time and had to change many orders of magnitude before “useful”forecasting could be done. But the goal is now within reach

6. Science at the leading and/or bleeding edge First ever long term forecast of chlorophyll?

7. Basin-scale model run for 10 years forced by NOAA blended winds then forced by NCEP 9 month forecast Comparison of forecast anomalies with SeaWIFS anomalies We know forecast “drifts” after 5 months Barber, Chai, Chao, Chavez

8. Approach • Retrospective analysis (of in situ and remote sensing data) • Identify changes in ecosystem and environment • Develop conceptual and numerical models • Look at model solutions (physics, biogeochemistry, fish) for drivers • Forecast and hindcast

9. It is a familiar story Once ever 3-8 years Child El Niño La Niña El Viejo La Vieja Parent El Viejo La Vieja Once ever 25-40 years 1900 to 2000

10. Change Two Primary States Varia- bility Low oxygen

11. Computing power allows for model simulations at the right scale Yi Chao, JPL Realistic model of the Pacific at 12.5 km resolution - SST

13. Yamanaka et al. (2005)

15. EGGS DURATION: 24 HR MORTALITY RATE>99% YOLK-SAC LARVE LEN: 2-4MM DURATION: 24-28 HR MORTALITY RATE 80%-98% AGE-2+ LIFE SPAN ~3 YR PREDATOR: SEA BIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS FIRST-FEEDER FEED BY PHYTOPL. LEN: 4.25CM, WT: ~2 gm DURATION: 80 DAYS AGE-2 LEN: ~20CM WT: ~55 gm OPT TEMP: 18.6°C SPAWN ~20 TIMES/YR AGE-1(JUVENILE) BECOME SEXUAL MATRUE LEN: 8-10CM WT: ~10 gm ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton Life Cycle of Peruvian Anchovy Individual Based Model with ROMS-CoSINE ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton

16. Need to gain better access to US ocean ecosystem scientists and their data and if data not available then determine how to collect

17. Case Studies • The “Right” Whale • The Sablefish in Gulf of Alaska • Leatherback turtles • Productivity in the Arabian Sea

18. Right Whale, Wrong Time? • Only 350-400 right whales in N. Atlantic • Recovery is limited by hight mortality • Ship strikes • Fishing gear • All management options depend on knowing where whales are Andy Pershing et al. 18

19. Courtesy PCCS Saving the Whales • During spring, summer, and fall, whales follow food • How can we find whale food on operational time scales? • Use remote sensing of SST and Chl coupled with model circulation to predict Calanus Andy Pershing et al. 19

20. Whale Arrival Date Predicted Calanus Abundance Predicting Whales from Calanus Whale Arrival Date Whales arrive early when food is abundant Andy Pershing et al. 20

21. Alaskan Sablefish ProjectAuthors: S. Kalei Shotwell & Dana H. Hanselman • Sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) • Fast growing, wide distribution, highly valuable commercial species • Adults generally at 200+ meters in continental slope, gullies, fjords • Early life history (ELH) largely unknown • Spawning at depth (400+m), larvae swim to surface, collect at shelf break • Juveniles move nearshore to overwinter, then offshore in summer • Reach adult habitat and recruit to fishery or survey in 4 to 5 years • Recruitment calculated in age-structured model • Recruitments are estimated as two year-olds • Estimates for most recent years are highly variable with large uncertainty and excluded from model projections • Objective • Evaluate ELH data and explore integrating satellite derived environmental time series into the sablefish stock assessment to reduce recruitment uncertainty

22. Distribution, Movements, and Behaviors of Critically Endangered Eastern Pacific Leatherback Turtles: Conservation Implications for an Imperiled Population Shillinger, Palacios, Bailey, Bograd Block Lab, Stanford University NOAA-SWFSC-ERD

23. Chlorophyll (mg m-3) 10 year Sea-WiFS Mean Kinetic Energy (cm2 s-2) Surface velocities cm s-1 (CHL vs. Speed linear regression:  = 0.964 ± 0.057, F1,9577 = 281, P < 0.001, r2 = 0.029) CRD (~10cm s-1) NECC(~30cm s-1) SEC (n) (~30cm s-1) EUC (~5cm s-1) SEC (s) (~15cm s-1) Turtles move into zones of low phytoplankton density Turtles must negotiate gauntlet of zonal currents

24. Joaquim I. Goes and Helga Gomes Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, Maine, USA Prasad Thoppil Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Centre, Mississippi, USA Prabhu Matondkar National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India Adnan Al AzriSultan Qaboos University Oman INTERANNUAL TRENDS IN PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN THE ARABIAN SEA LINKED TO EURASIAN WARMING R. M. Dwivedi Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organization, India

25. SW Eurasian-Land Warming Warming of SW Eurasia mirrors the global-land signal, but recent warming anomalies are >50% larger than global temperature trends.

26. Interannual changes in chlorophyll along coast of Somalia since 1997 (Goes et al., Science, 2005 )

27. High chlorophyll concentrations during the NEM are being caused by blooms of dinoflagellate Noctiluca miliaris (not all chlorophyll is the same!!!!) A similar phenomena in Monterey Bay where (as in the Arabian Sea) the nutricline is shallow and dinos vertically migrate to depth at night for nutrients and surface during day to take up carbon dioxide

28. Monterey Bay Time Series • - El Niños during 92-93 and 97-98 • Transition from El Viejo to La Vieja • The age of dinoflagellates? Dinoflagellate regime associated with failures in fish and seabirds

29. Longer Centennial changes (in oxygen) Export production Oxygen at 150 m Gutierrez et al. - Paleopeces

30. Summary, during LIA ocean off Peru high oxygen/few fish, low oxygen/high fish after

31. The low oxygen expanded southward in to Chile, what about the recent record (~50 years) • California • Peru Stramma, L., G.C. Johnson, J. Sprintall, and V. Mohrholz (2008), Expanding oxygen minimum zones in the tropical oceans, Science, in press. May 2

32. Long-Term Trends in Dissolved Oxygen off California -2.1 mol/kg/y DZmean = -41 m DZmax = -92 m Expansion of Low-Oxygen Habitat (Bograd et al. in press)

33. In situ oceanographic data from Peru 10:00 (Abstract ID:2647) MondayMessié, M; Calienes, R; Ledesma, J; Barber, R T; Pennington, J T; Chavez, F P; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY AND LONG TERM TRENDS IN EASTERN PACIFIC UPWELLING ECOSYSTEMS

34. It appears as if the eastern Pacific low oxygen regions reformed after the Little Ice Age and continue to expand today Are there biological indicators of this expansion?

35. 1966-1977 1978-1987 1988-1995 1996-2001 The Hake off Peru has retreated and gotten more concentrated Hake habitat restricted by oxygen Merluza durante La Niña (1996) Hake inEcuador Index of hake concentración

37. Post 1997/98 expansion of Dosidicus gigas range 2004 2001 July 2005 Tracy Arm (Sitka), AK 1984 2004 Outer Coast, BC La Jolla Cove, CA. July, 2002 British Columbia Sept. 2005 Long Beach, WA Oct 2004

38. Including variability and change in management • Has not been the norm for management of exploited populations; typically managed using population models that do not parameterize the environment. • Needs to be built in early on in our “new” ecosystem based management approach

39. Conclusions • Sophisticated observing systems, increased computing power for modeling and improved ecosystem theory provide the framework today to develop ecological forecasts useful for society • Nature will continue to surprise (at a faster rate due to global change) and our theory will need to constantly evolve • NASA will need to develop new direct or indirect estimates (and models) of ecologically relevant properties beyond chlorophyll • Better working relationships between resource managers and NASA should be fostered

40. Where climate meets the global economy

41. Global economy Global Climate Small Pelagic Fish 6Mt Fishmeal + 1.2 Mt Fish oil (from 30 Mt fish or 25 % Global catch) Poultry Aquaculture Hogs