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Ensemble sensitivity analysis

Ensemble sensitivity analysis. Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009). Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast. Ensemble mean. Variance. Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst).

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Ensemble sensitivity analysis

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  1. Ensemble sensitivity analysis Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009)

  2. Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast

  3. Ensemble mean Variance Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst)

  4. Sensitivity of EOF 1 (weak/strong cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag Here, J is the principal component of EOF1 EOF1 positive phase: weaker cyclone

  5. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-60hr (24 12Z)

  6. Sensitivity of EOF 2 (SW/NE shift of cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag EOF2 positive phase: southwest shift of cyclone

  7. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-48hr (25 00Z)

  8. T-48 hr (25 00Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  9. T-60 hr (24 12Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  10. SBU CSTAR future work: • Examine sensitivity for different forecast metric J • Examine sensitivity computed using multi-model ensembles • Relate to ETKF sensitivity

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