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Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Cyclone Movement in ECMWF Forecasts

Research by Minghua Zheng, a graduate student at SBU, focused on analyzing the sensitivity of cyclone movements in 84-hour ECMWF ensemble forecasts. The study examined the impact of 500 hPa height on the cyclone's intensity and position, exploring principal components EOF1 and EOF2. Future work includes investigating sensitivity for various forecast metrics and utilizing multi-model ensembles for analysis.

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Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Cyclone Movement in ECMWF Forecasts

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  1. Ensemble sensitivity analysis Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009)

  2. Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast

  3. Ensemble mean Variance Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst)

  4. Sensitivity of EOF 1 (weak/strong cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag Here, J is the principal component of EOF1 EOF1 positive phase: weaker cyclone

  5. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-60hr (24 12Z)

  6. Sensitivity of EOF 2 (SW/NE shift of cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag EOF2 positive phase: southwest shift of cyclone

  7. T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-48hr (25 00Z)

  8. T-48 hr (25 00Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  9. T-60 hr (24 12Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2

  10. SBU CSTAR future work: • Examine sensitivity for different forecast metric J • Examine sensitivity computed using multi-model ensembles • Relate to ETKF sensitivity

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