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Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis

This study analyzes the effects of climate change on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching, using Daisy model simulations for selected European regions. Data from MARS/STAT database (1976-2004) and ENSEMBLES forecasts are considered. The study focuses on Denmark and South Germany, evaluating scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes.

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Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis

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  1. Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leachingPreliminary analysis Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. Olesen Department of Agroecology U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

  2. Methods • Daisy model • Simulations for selected regions in Europe • Baseline climate data from MARS/STAT database at JRC (1976-2004) • Future climate data from ENSEMBLES • Two crops: winter wheat and spring barley

  3. MARS/STAT grid

  4. Thresholds • 20 % decrease in yield • 10 % decrease in yield • Nitrogen leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  5. Example - preliminary work • Future climate data from perturbed physics experiment (2050-70) • Two locations: Denmark and South Germany • Crop: winter wheat • Fertilisation: optimum N rate • Soil type: same soil type at both sites (14 % clay in top soil)

  6. Cumulative probability plot of temperature change and precipitation change

  7. Changes in climate • South Germany: • Precipitation: -15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15 % • Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC • Denmark • Precipitation: -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15, +20, +25 % • Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC

  8. Changes in climate • Two different situations • Precipitation evenly distributed on all months • Seasonal variation in precipitation included

  9. Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

  10. Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution South Germany • Decrease: • Decrease in precipitation during May – Nov. (larger decrease during Jul. – Aug.) • Unchanged precipitation during Dec. – Feb. • Increase • Unchanged precipitation during Jun. – Aug. • Increase in precipitation during the rest of the period (larger increase during Dec. – Feb.)

  11. South Germany, 20% yield decrease

  12. South Germany, 10 % yield decrease

  13. South Germany, Leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  14. Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

  15. Including seasonal variation in precipitation distributionDenmark • Increase: • Increase in precipitation during Sep. – May • Decrease in precipitation during Jun. – Aug. • Decrease: • All the decrease in Jun. – Aug. • The rest of the months unchanged

  16. Denmark, 20 % yield decrease

  17. Denmark, 10 % yield decrease

  18. Denmark, leaching > 25 kg N/ha

  19. Response surfaces in combination with probabilistic information on future climate

  20. Remarks • Baseline climate from 1976-2004, should be 1960-90 • CO2 concentration not included in simulations

  21. Preliminary conclusion • Calculations of nitrogen leaching is more sensitive to seasonal variation in climate data than the calculations of crop yields.

  22. Future work • Seasonal relationships between meteorological variables in future climate data will be investigated • Include CO2-concentrations, fixed for each time period • Include the seasonal variation in climate in the calculations • Simulations with two crops: winter wheat and spring barley • Simulations for more locations and local soil types

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