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Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning

Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning. Eugene S. Takle Certified Consulting Meteorologist Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy

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Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning

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  1. Climate Change and Impact on Water Resource Planning Eugene S. Takle Certified Consulting Meteorologist Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu ASCE Environmental & Water Resources Conference Ames, Iowa 25 March 2010

  2. Outline • Iowa precipitation trends of the 20th Century • Scientific basis for future climate change • Projected future global and regional changes in climate • Impacts of climate change on water resources management

  3. Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation

  4. State-Wide Average Data

  5. State-Wide Average Data 37.5” 31.5” 19% increase

  6. State-Wide Average Data Totals above 40” 8 years 2 years

  7. State-Wide Average Data

  8. Cedar Rapids Data 28.0” 32% increase 37.0”

  9. Cedar Rapids Data 51% increase 11.8” 7.8”

  10. Cedar Rapids Data 34% increase 20.2” 26.8”

  11. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  12. Cedar Rapids Data 57% increase 6.6 days 4.2 days

  13. Cedar Rapids Data Years having more than 8 days 11 2 57% increase 6.6 days 4.2 days

  14. State-Wide Average Data

  15. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

  16. Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change • Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later • Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows • More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields • Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces • Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions, more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.

  17. Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest: A New “Great Lake” Historical Data indicate this should happen about once every 500 years Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001: Analysis of the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci & Remote Sens., 39, 1736-1743.

  18. Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation

  19. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra

  20. NASA http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

  21. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

  22. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

  23. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

  24. Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 Consider A1B FI =fossil intensive IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  25. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  26. IPCC 2007

  27. December-January-February Temperature Change 7.2oF 6.3oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999

  28. IPCC 2007

  29. June-July-August Temperature Change 4.5oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999 5.4oF

  30. June-July-August Temperature Change 4.5oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999 5.4oF Not the direction of current trends

  31. IPCC 2007

  32. Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation IPCC 2007

  33. IPCC 2007

  34. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  35. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  36. Low confidence Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  37. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  38. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  39. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  40. Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates

  41. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More freeze-thaw cycles (high) • Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

  42. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation • More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) • Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) • More water-logging of soils (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • More winter soil moisture recharge (medium) • Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

  43. Use of Regional Climate Modeling for Design and Decision-Making:North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

  44. Global models lack regional detail North America coastlines and terrain at typical global climate model resolution used for the IPCC 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports. Hadley Centre AOGCM (HadCM3), 2.5˚ (lat) x 3.75˚ (lon), ~ 280 km North America at 50 km grid spacing

  45. NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario HADAM3 link to EU programs GFDL CCSM CGCM3 Provide boundary conditions 2040-2070 future 1960-1990 current RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre WRF NCAR/ PNNL MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RSM Scripps Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000

  46. NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario HADAM3 link to EU programs GFDL CCSM CGCM3 Provide boundary conditions 2040-2070 future 1960-1990 current RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre WRF NCAR/ PNNL MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RSM Scripps ISU Climate Science Initiative is now running four models Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000

  47. Iowa State University Climate Science Initiative • ISU/CSI is the only organization in the world running four different regional climate models for science, impacts and adaptation • Climate change impacts and adaptation • Streamflow in the UMRB • Subsurface tile drainage flow • Pavement performance • Building design standards • Soil carbon • Crop growth http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/or Google ISU CSI

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