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“Cost” of Time Spent during Tornado Warnings 2000 - 2004

“Cost” of Time Spent during Tornado Warnings 2000 - 2004. Somer Erickson Meteorology/Economics NSSL/OU Boulder Summer WAS*IS July 2006. Why Tornado Warnings?. Highly visible product Want as few warnings as possible to protect lives and property

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“Cost” of Time Spent during Tornado Warnings 2000 - 2004

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  1. “Cost” of Time Spent during Tornado Warnings 2000 - 2004 Somer Erickson Meteorology/Economics NSSL/OU Boulder Summer WAS*IS July 2006

  2. Why Tornado Warnings? • Highly visible product • Want as few warnings as possible to protect lives and property • Different way of looking at false alarm problem →50% of tornadoes warned for from 1986 -2004, but 66% warned for during 2000 – 2004.

  3. Value vs. Cost • Value • Fatality/injury reduction (perhaps 400 lives saved per year for the warning system) • Cost • Cost of warning system • Cost to the public of time taking precautions • $15 per hour (typical value)

  4. What I have done • Looked at every tornado event reported and tornado warning issued by National Weather Service (1986 – 2004) • Population in the warned county • Area of the warned county • Length of time of the warning

  5. Mean Warning Time 2000 – .65 hours 2001 – .65 hours 2002 – .65 hours 2003 – .69 hours 2004 – .69 hours 5 year average: ~ .67 hours

  6. Number of Warnings 2000 → 2906 2001 → 2903 2002 → 2812 2003 → 4023 2004 → 4691 TOTAL = 17,335 (5 years) AVERAGE = 3,467

  7. Total Warn Time • 2000: 1902.2 hours • 2001: 1876.7 • 2002: 1822.9 • 2003: 2763.3 • 2004: 3237.8 Average: 2320.6 hours

  8. Person Hours(time x population) 2000: 195.2 million (67,166/warning) 2001: 187.9 (64,727) 2002: 185.5 (65,976) 2003: 292.7 (72,570) 2004: 360.2 (76,783) MEAN = 244.3 (70,464)

  9. COST ($15/person hour)

  10. Other Results...

  11. Most Warnings(2000 – 2004) • Texas – Harris County (63 warnings) • Colorado – Washington County (48) • Colorado – Lincoln County (43) • Texas – Liberty County (41) • Lousiana – St. Tammany Parish (39) 1138. Oklahoma – Cleveland County (6) →Colorado – Boulder County (0)

  12. Most Warned Counties (2000-2004) 1. Texas – Harris County (8.3 hours/year) 2. Colorado – Washington County (6.5) 3. Colorado – Lincoln County (5.9) 4. Texas – Liberty County (5.7) 5. Missouri – Wayne County (5.6) 1129. Oklahoma – Cleveland (0.8)

  13. Population Time(2000 – 2004) • Texas – Harris County • Florida – Miami-Dade County • Illinois – Cook County • Florida – Palm Beach County • Florida – Broward County 216. Oklahoma – Cleveland County

  14. Harris County • 3rd most populous county in United States • $450 million a year ( ~ 13% of national total) • 68 warnings • 14 per year • 22 verified • 68% were false alarms • 30 Tornadoes • 6 per year • 1 F3 • 2 F2

  15. Polygon Warnings Potentially: Decrease warning area size ↓ Decrease costs

  16. Future • Would like to continue this work for my PhD but…. …..there is no ECONOMICS (aka funding) to do so! Any help would be greatly appreciated!?!

  17. Questions? tornadosomer@ou.edu

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