Presentation Transcript

1. Renewables – Power to the People

   Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner former MP (1995-2010) Switzerland
2. Contents Whyrenewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – canwetrustthem? Whatneeds to bedone? Profoundchanges of the power system and infrastructure
3. An IEA View on energy (2003)William Ramsay, deputydirector IEA Presentation in the Swiss Parliament Energy Commitee
4. Tenfoldgrowthover 10 years
5. Wind power exceeds all forecasts
6. Neu-Installationen von Kraftwerken in Europa: 71% der Leistung = erneuerbare Energie (2011)
7. Solar Power: costsreduced – betterproductivityeachyear Gestehungskosten seit 1976 (BNEF) Solarzellen- Wirkungsgrade (NREL) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/PVeff(rev100414).png Endkundenpreis Dachanlagen BRD 2006-11 (BSW) Weltmarkt Solarzellenproduktion 2000-11 (Jäger-Waldau: PV Status Report 2012)
8. Whatare the good News? Solar is profitable in the retailmarket of many European countries. Wind power hasmade a hugestepforward: General reduction of costs Technical progressfor low wind sites, Meanswehave a hugeincrease in profitable resource High petrolprices and scarcegovernmentmoney subsidiesfor fossil fuelsreducedsomewhat
9. The Implications of cheaperpricesfor wind and solar Lowerbarriers in economicterms Fastergrowthpossible, ifmarketframeisthere Itiscomparativelylessinteresting to go to Africafor solar Grids are not there Grids aremorecostlythan the additional power producedbysiting in the South regional approachesaremoreappropriate in terms of production, trade and storage But: itmakes a lot of sense to connect different weatherzones!
10. Wahtneeds to bedone?
11. Windzonen und Windressourcen Offshore-Nutzungszonen (weiss) Europa: Potentiale 20mal grösser als Verbrauch Auslastung der Anlagen (loadFactor) Ausgeprägte Winterspitze Quelle: Forwind / EWEA 2011
12. Contents Whyrenewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – canwetrustthem? Whatneeds to bedone?
13. The IEA forecastsfor oil pricesworkedwellin the 1990es IEA World Energy Outlook 2000
14. IEA Oil Price Forecast methodin 2002 "Crude oil prices are assumed to remain flat until 2010 at around $21 per barrel (in year 2000 dollars) – their average level for the past 15 years. They will then rise steadily to $29 in 2030. ” International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook 2002, p. 37
15. The IEA method of supplyprediction: predictdemand! „The oil supplyprojectionsof this Outlook arederived from aggregatedprojections of oil demand…. Opec conventional oil productionisassumedtofillthegap.“ World Energy Outlook 2002 p. 95
16. IEA Forecasts neverhitreality Source: LBST – Werner Zittel
17. Decline rates of oil fields4.9-9.7 percent per year IEA 2008 global productionforecast IEA 2008 oil fields inproductiondecline rate forecast Post-peak oil fieldsshow a decline rate of 5,5% per year (Höök, 2009) Source: Höök, M. et al: Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production .Energy Policy (2009),
18. World Oil Price (real) and spare capacity (IMF 2012) The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet, OndraKamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody
19. Negative learningcurveofnuclear power Costover time of French and US newnuclearreactors Source Grubler, Energy Policy, Sept 2010
20. Natural gas price will rise due to Asien Europa USA
21. Decline rates of shale gas Haynesvilleshale gas wells Source: J. David Hughes: Drill, baby Drill, Postcarbon Institute 2013
22. Contents Whyrenewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – canwetrustthem? Whatneeds to bedone?
23. Golden End of renewable power plantsreducesoveralcostforsociety Kraftwerk Rheinfelden 1898-2011 (gebaut 1894-1898)
24. Germany 1990-2012: from 3% to 25% clean power (50% bis 2020?) Hydro power 2020: 39-47% oder mehr (Schätzung) 2012/7 25% 1990 3%
25. Merit-Order-Impactrenewable power pushesmarketprice to zero
26. Production and consumptionover timeon householdlevel – low cincidence! (~20%) Low selfconsumption in one-familyhouses Bettercoincidence in large appartmenthouses. Im grossen Mehrfamilienhaus ist der zeitgleiche Eigenverbrauch viel grösser.* Das Arealprinzip bei der Kostenverrechnung kann die Rendite einer Anlage entscheidend verbessern. *grösserer und zeitlich stärker gestreuter Verbrauch, weniger Dachfläche pro Einwohner Grafik: Markus Hlusiak, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Christian Breyer: Übergang zu einer regionalen Elektrizitätsversorgung aus 100 % Erneuerbarer Energie am Beispiel des Allgäus, Das Solarzeitalter 3/2012
27. Solar roof power cheaperthanresidential power tariffs
28. German Power Spotmarket16 Juli 2011 Source: EEX/Photon
29. Power prices on record low (Strompreis Futures CAL 13) ELIX 8.3.20133,7 €-Cent/kWh Baseload 2013
30. European power market: Lower power pricesdue to wind and solar
31. EEX electricityspotmarket 7. März 2012:Spot priceatdaycheaperthanatnight
32. Whyhas peak load power become so cheap? – the German example PV Power covers the demandatday – no peak power stationsneededwithsunnydays
33. Market Clearing Price GermanySunday August 8, 2012
34. Wind and solar reducemarketprices due tozero marginal cost
35. Solarstrom füllt das Netz - Bandenergie wird wertlos
36. Compensationrulesfor power arekeyfor investment certainty Weneed fair compensationfordecentrallyproduced power Selfconsumptionstarts to beinteresting, but itis not sufficient Storage makesno sense aslongasyoucansellitwithless cost to localdemand Market pricesat marginal cost is not a fair solution Every time the sunshines, the priceisgoing to zero But the cost is not zero Overall cost islessthanfor fossil fuels Fair rulescouldbe A Feed-in tariffforavoidedcosts (whatwould power cost ifproducedelsewherewith fossil fuel Net metering: let the power meter turn back
37. Countries withoutfeed in tariffsnet metering as a solution(=let the power meter turn back) Net metering Situation today Youpay 20-25 Cents/kWh Youget 0-7 cents Cents/kWh Solar power is peak power. Itisalwayswelcomewithmarketpenetrationbelow 20-30%. Itcovers the demandduring high load periods. Withmarketpenetrationbeyond 30% youneedstoragefacilities and a smater grid.
38. Contents Whyrenewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – canwetrustthem? Whatneeds to bedone? Profoundchanges of the power system and infrastructure
39. Case studySwitzerland: Integration von Wind- und Sonnenstrom ist ohne Mehrkosten möglich dank bestehenden grossen Leistungsreserven in der Schweiz und in Europa (CH 12 GW, Europa 96GW Wasserspeicher) Dank Ausbau der Netze Dank Ausbau der Pumpspeicher (Spanien, Schweiz, Deutschland, Norwegen usw.) Dank neuen Speichern (E-Gas) und fossilem Backup (Erdgas) Speicherentnahmen Zu jeder Tages- und Jahreszeit schont Wind- und Solarstrom die Entnahme von Reserven aus den Speicherseen (hellblau) verbessert die Versorgungssicherheit ersetzt Kohle-, Gas- oder Atomstrom Grafik: CH Elektrizitätsstatistik
40. Leistungsprofil im Sommer, mit 18 TWh Solarstrom jährlich Umkehrung der Speicherzyklen! Speicherkraftwerke produzieren am Abend und in der Nacht Pumpspeicher pumpen am Tag (Sommerzyklus, PV-Maximum)
41. Swiss power Generation in 2030
42. The benefits of grids: Balancing power over several markets Access to new resources Access to existing storages (e.g. pump storage) Access to excess power in other areas Vernetzung mit Gleichstromleitungen: grössere Reichweite, kleinere Verluste Unterwasserkabel: Stand de Technik Gleichstromleitungen Nord-Süd im Bundesnetzplan 2012
43. Challengesaheadforrenewables A fair price for non-polluting power Coverage of investment costs and risks over a facility’s life time Integration of sites with high, medium and lower productivity, avoiding windfall profits Long term stability of regulatory frameworks for cost reduction Access to the grids in a non-discriminating manner Preferential access to grids for renewables Interconnection of different weather zones and technologies Transparent grid codes Security of supply and backup management Forecasting of demandandsupply combining storages such as biomass, hydro, batteries in a low cost way Creation of intra-day and intra-hour markets for power exchange Fair compensation of idle backup capacities storing fossil fuels as “lenders of last resort” Environmental care minimizing environmental impacts while mobilizing natural resources by incentives and regional planning obligations Fair and sensitive planning of renewable energies and grids with a 100% approach in mind Protection for rare species, natural rivers, exceptional landscapes
44. Whyrenewablesshouldsucceed:the benefits Reliable, inexhaustibleandvirtuallyfree (but weatherdependent) primary energy (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal) Resilientdue to decentralized, interconnectedgeneration Affordable power, on the way to become a least cost-solution, chancefor a Golden End needing a favorable marketstructure balancing high up-front costwithlaterbenefits Diversity of sourcesandinterconnection