1 / 36

The Balancing Act: Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets

The Balancing Act: Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets. Frederick J. Lawrence Vice President - Economics and International Affairs. Alien Vs. Predator. Demand appears to be driving Fundamentals in a Tight Market – is it Sustainable?

morela
Download Presentation

The Balancing Act: Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Balancing Act:Perspectives of the Global and Domestic Oil Markets Frederick J. Lawrence Vice President - Economics and International Affairs

  2. Alien Vs. Predator • Demand appears to be driving Fundamentals in a Tight Market – is it Sustainable? • Global Economy, Asia Growth Components & More? • World demand up an estimated 2.7 Mmb/d (3.4%) • US demand up 460,000 b/d (2.4%) & China demand up an estimated 860,000 b/d (16.5%) in 2004. + • Supply Reacts to Demand and Price but hitting Capacity limitations • OPEC & Non-OPEC Potential – Market Share vs. Reserves • Spare Capacity & Just in Time Behavior – narrow the gap • Energy Security, Interdependence & Diversification – growing connectivity between foreign and domestic policy = INCREASED VOLATILITY & FEAR FACTOR

  3. Where is the incremental demand coming from by region?

  4. Demand is breaking out and we’re en route to 90 Mmb/d QUARTERLY AVERAGE YEARLY AVERAGE

  5. China – Growth Spurt

  6. China will continue to be a big part of the demand story.

  7. Don’t discount growth in the rest of Asia – especially India

  8. UN Perspectives on Sustainability

  9. Global Population Surge

  10. Demand Bites

  11. Projected Global Petroleum Demand

  12. Proved Oil Reserves – Not Created Equal

  13. Supply is also adapting to a new threshold but can it be maintained?

  14. Comparative Oil Production

  15. OPEC is building capacity and trying to manage production based on demand.

  16. Non-OPEC has captured market share but sustainability in question.

  17. Former Soviet Union Dominates Non-OPEC Supply Gain

  18. Pragmatic Oil Diplomacy

  19. Projected Source of Global Conventional Oil Supply

  20. The Wrong Cow is Getting Fat

  21. U.S. Energy Shares (2003)

  22. U.S. Petroleum Balance

  23. U.S. Petroleum Consumption

  24. U.S. Import Sensitivity by Region (2003)

  25. Domestic Crude Production

  26. Where Does Our Energy Come From?2003 Wells Drilled = Gas = Oil = CBM = Horizontal = Dry

  27. Where is Our Energy Used?

  28. Vermont Energy – where a woodchuck could chop wood

  29. Producing 18 Quads of Energy Per Year Biomass

  30. Percentage of US Congressmen from Selected States Voting for Energy Issues

  31. Volatility at Work (1986-2004)

  32. U.S. Oil Deficit

  33. Refinery Situation

  34. Conclusion Demand calls shots until proven differently Market volatility looks sustainable Integrative solutions needed There will be a sequel Demand calls shots until proven differently Market volatility looks sustainable Integrative solutions needed There will be a sequel

More Related