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FlightPlan Research Phase 2 Summary Results. Jim McGee Global Mapping International IAMA Conference May 2006. Background. Global Mapping International Part of and committed to the mission community Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community Focus and commitment to research
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FlightPlan ResearchPhase 2 Summary Results Jim McGee Global Mapping International IAMA Conference May 2006
Background • Global Mapping International • Part of and committed to the mission community • Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community • Focus and commitment to research GMI’s Mission: Produce and present world-class research that fuels emerging mission movements and leaders.
Key Elements of the Project • Collaboration and involvement sought from all stakeholders • A visible, open process • Compilation of valuable information for distribution throughout the mission aviation community • Funding provided from several sources • Third-party analysis and reporting
Phases • Phase 1: Document the status, dynamics and trends • Phase 2: Explore perceptions, needs, challenges, opportunities • Phase 3: Envision and analyze possible & preferable futures
Phase 1 CD Contents • Research Report: Status of Mission Aviation • History • Global Trends • Missiology • Finance • Training • Technology • Strategy/Practice
Phase 1 CD Contents • Directory of mission aviation service providers • Web directory of mission aviation web sites • Library of 300 mission aviation documents • Key documents • Dave Bochman • Ed Robinson • Scott Zibell • Key measures
Sample of Phase 1 Info • National and global trends • Number of student pilots has dropped 41% in past 20 years
Sample of Phase 1 Info • Technical m.a. staff is up by 44% since 1988 • Flight hours are roughly unchanged • (Chart does not show all known orgs)
More Phase 1 Learning (plus) • Roadless population growing: 1 billion by 2030 • Among poorest peoples, mobility not expected to increase substantially • Building roads often doesn’t give poorest access to services they need • Economic-valuation models say the value of time saved is multiplied by a factor of (significant given rapid population increase)
More Phase 1 Learning (plus) • Fuel savings from diesel/autofuel aircraft expected to recoup cost in 4 years of service • Staff attrition at MAF (6.5% annually) is similar to that of all U.S.-based missions (6.0%) • Projected supply of pilot trainees runs fairly close to expressed agency need (but do they reach the field?) • Projected supply of maintenance specialists runs somewhat short
Methodology • Objectives: Gather internal (stakeholder) and external perspectives • Internal: Interview leaders/representatives within stakeholder groups to explore key issues, questions • Depth interviews • Online focus groups • External: Survey current and potential users of mission aviation to explore needs, perceptions
Depth Interviews • 40 depth interviews (phone, email) • 15 service providers (10 agencies; senior leaders, field leaders, pilots, recruiters) • 8 trainers/equippers (5 schools, 3 bridge programs) • 6 support specialists (4 agencies) • 5 donors • 4 service users (representing Guatemala, Ecuador, Cameroon, South Africa, China and PNG) • 2 current/former students
Online Discussions • Discussion Boards • 75 mission-aviation stakeholders • Topical: focusing on questions outlined in Phase 1 • Situational: getting reactions to ideas that could have application for mission aviation, e.g…. • …corporate-NGO partnership for global logistics • …federal giving initiative to give $200 million to faith-based organizations working in AIDS-ravaged countries • ...Islamic competition in community air service • …small-scale tribal tourism operations • …2-year field internship for prospective missionaries
Values • In relative frequency of mention • Cooperate with other agencies • Be a missionary first, a pilot second • Empower indigenous peoples by increasing their access to health/education services • Partner closely with national believers/churches • Leave when appropriate; establish exit parameters • Select appropriate technology for situation • Emphasize safety and safety standards • Seek sustainability, financially and otherwise
Values • Focus on learning/research/using information • Define and measure effectiveness • Speed the path to the field; show agility on the field • Consider God-honoring business applications • Smaller aircraft have a place • Internships must meet objectives (not just exposure) • Users pay portion of costs • Variety in the enterprise is good
Concerns • In relative frequency of mention • Cost of aviation for nationals (and expats) • Government resistance/regulation • Rising operational costs (and currency devaluation) • Students failing to get to field due to cost, debt and distractions • Supply of students • Insurance costs
Concerns • Service providers staying too long • Changing technology (training, certification) • Declining funding sources/trends • Avgas supply • Agencies less likely to place missionaries in isolated locations
Opportunities • In relative frequency of mention • Internship opportunities for trainees • Low-tech/simple tech (Steve Saint) • Mission-Business ventures and models • Partnership/consultation with governments on infrastructure • Cargo capacity – more stuff, fewer trips (Kodiak) • Second-career people/volunteers • Secular schools supplying students
Opportunities • Humanitarian opportunities in closed places • Airstrip construction in areas where governments are committed to providing services • Pilots returning from the field (training, promoting) • Tentmaking opportunities for trainees • Need of nationals to learn English • Use of commercial pilots for short-term needs • Navigation technology • Community air service
Opportunities • Group insurance • Microaviation – small-scale do-it-alls • FBOs lying dormant • Running national training institutions
Needs • Relative frequency of mention • Intentionally reduce dependence on expats • Speed the transition to new aircraft • Recruit more people • Help trainees get field ready (skill & finances) • Measure opportunity/effectiveness • Evaluate viability of new tech applications • Market the benefits to users, churches
Needs • Intentionally seek national administrators (not just technicians) • Adopt standards across organizations as appropriate (unity without uniformity) • Understand total cost/investment • Train pilots and trainees on diesel/turbine • Communicate better across agencies • Recruit people with business acumen
Internet Survey of Potential Users • Internet survey of field leaders whose agencies work among remote peoples • Offline version made available • Languages: English, Spanish, Portuguese • Recruiting sources emphasized global South • WEA Mission Commission Associates (global) • Ethne 2006 email list (primarily Asia) • Comibam email list (Latin America) • MANI network regional leaders
Internet Survey of Potential Users • Survey billed as “Remote Peoples and Mission Transportation Survey” to avoid potential response bias • 40+ data points, including attitude/behavior ratings, 2 open-ended questions, demographics • Respondents asked to identify themselves by name and mission organization • 119 valid responses from approximately 800 invitations (approx. 15% response)
Involvement with Remote Peoples • Respondents asked about relationship with remote peoples • Those not directly engaged with remote peoples were filtered out, as were aviation service providers • Reporting based on 82 responses
Demographics • 83% of responses from people living in the majority world • Half of respondents live in Latin America • For most measures, no bias based on region of residence
Demographics • Most respondents represent missions active in multiple regions
Demographics • Mix of national-oriented and expat-oriented missions • Relatively few missions have a balance of missionaries from both types of countries
Demographics • More than half of respondents from smaller missions; • Nearly 4 in 10 from missions with more than 100 field staff
Attitudes: Challenges in Ministry • Top challenges: • Access • Health/Security Concerns
Attitudes: Use of Big Grant • Aviation is complex, so no surprise to see it low on priority list • Other responses related to aviation: • Telecommunications • Transport Services
Attitudes: Transport Problems • Expense is top problem; a challenge for aviation • Cargo transport is an opportunity for aviation • Also, to a lesser degree, speed, safety & reliability
Behaviors: Travel Modes • Air travel used moderately, as is boat and foot travel • Boat use much higher in Latin America than Africa or Asia
Behaviors: Aviation Usage • Second half of survey specific to aviation • Mission aviation not seen as available in many areas • Unavailable? • Unaware? • 1 in 4 missions note use of aviation at some level
Attitudes: Barriers to Aviation Use • Confirms cost issue and perception of unavailability • Few have problem with use of planes generally
Anticipated Behavior: If Given Aircraft • 2 of 3 missions would keep a plane if given one • Only 1 in 8 would sell it outright rather than work to keep it in mission service
Attitudes: Mission Aviation • In general, strong support for use of aviation in mission
Analysis / Ideas • Marketing/Communications • Movement from reactive to proactive, especially among agencies that have few North Americans • Awareness: Potential users should be aware of the opportunities to use mission aviation service • Benefits of mission aviation should be more intentionally communicated to potential users (transportation consulting) • Grants for marketing could be tied to follow-up funding based on increases in requests for service
Analysis / Ideas • Failure to Get to the Field • With partner approach (schools/bridge/agency), no one accompanies student through the whole process • Students aren’t sure what they want to do; they need an advocate/counselor • Potential role for IAMA or others: membership-based career service for Christian aviation students • Could include internship clearinghouse • Should include commercial options, especially given expanding nature of “mission”
Analysis / Ideas • Failure to Remain on the Field • Missionaries less likely to stay for a full career;especially an issue for aviation due to initial cost • Lots of roles at home for former field staff, but… • …they can’t be publicized, because the staff are so needed on the field • Require a portion of support placed in a deferred fund, with substantial bonuses for extended service • Allow home assignments to be made public and given honor
Analysis / Ideas • The Struggle to Integrate Nationals • Agencies committed to development of national leaders, but training is a challenge & funding difficult • Meanwhile, agencies note that most people give to individual aviators, not agencies • Consider expat-national counterpart program • Expat raises support for self and for counterpart • Churches more likely to provide support w/link to national
Analysis / Ideas • What to Do With Second-Career Pilots? • Do something! • Research shows that pilots over 60 are no more of a risk than those under 35 (though they may not be able to fly into 15o-slope jungle strips) • Increasing opportunities for short-term or contract relief work, international flight training, mentoring • As likely to get a decade or more of service from them as from many younger pilots
Process • Identify and prioritize evaluation criteria • Identify and describe models/scenarios • Evaluate scenarios • Underlying assumptions • Anticipated/required conditions • Preferability based on criteria