Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood / Kevin Reed Winter 2014 April 10, 2014

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • Something I am playing with • http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ • Project Presentations • April 22 nd … • Final Slide Package and Narrative • April 28, 2014 11:59 pm Politics of Dismissal Entry Uncertainty Description Model

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global

4. Today: Planning and Uncertainty • Planning Scenario • Uncertainty • Extremes Again • What Are Extreme Events? • Are They Changing? • Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate Change’? • Communication

5. Uncertainty Discussion • How uncertain do you think climate science is? • What seems most uncertain to you? • Is this uncertainty small enough to motivate action, or is it so large that action is risky? • Is better communication of uncertainty what stands between us and doing something? • Is reducing uncertainty critical?

6. Take this scenario • You are asked to be the climate person of a project to • Forest management in a Great Lakes National Park • Flood management in a city in New England • How would you start frame this problem? • What would you say about uncertainty?

7. Brainstorm / Skills / Knowledge • Motivation • Convincing • Data • Past, future • Impacts • Uncertainty

8. Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S.

10. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial. This represents the uncertainties in the observations

11. Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty • Uncertainty always exists • New uncertainties will be revealed • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging

12. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy • Uncertainty always exists • New uncertainties will be revealed • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

13. The Uncertainty Fallacy • That the systematic reduction of scientific uncertainty will lead to development of policy is a fallacy. • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging. • That is – this is a political issue • Practitioners more often want uncertainty descriptions and context-based descriptions rather than quantification.

14. Attribution • How do we know climate change, the warming planet, is due carbon dioxide?

15. Scientists and Uncertainty for Decision Makers • Scenario Uncertainty: How much CO2 we will emit. • Model Uncertainty: Weaknesses of model to represent physical, chemical and biological processes. • Internal Variability: Variability of the climate, not related to human-made changes.

16. NRC Modeling Report: Uncertainty UNCERTAINTY Uncertainty is fundamental to all scientific investigations, and many scientific experiments are designed solely to quantify the uncertainty (e.g., in order to place bounds on observational requirements). Many enterprises have embraced the fact that uncertainty exists and have developed methods for operating and decision making under uncertainty. Uncertainty, in its most general definition, refers to lack of knowledge, or imperfect knowledge about specific quantities (e.g., speed of light), or the behavior of a system (e.g., the climate system). Because there is often a random component to uncertainty, it is usually broken down into two basic types: aleatory(randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge about something that is in principle knowable). With respect to climate modeling, both types of uncertainty are highly relevant. Uncertainty in climate modeling has been discussed in many contexts (e.g., Hawkins and Sutton, 2009; IPCC, 2007c; Palmer et al., 2005). The main uncertainties discussed are value uncertainty (e.g., uncertainty in data such as observations needed for model development and evaluation), structural uncertainty (e.g., incomplete understanding of processes or how to model them), and unpredictability (chaotic components of the complex system).

17. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Lack of knowledge or imperfect knowledge • Two categories? • Aleatory: Dependent upon chance / randomness • Epistimic : Knowledge based / could be knowable

18. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • “Climate Scientists” • Value uncertainty • Structural uncertainty • Predictability

19. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • “Climate Scientists” through eyes of a model practitioner • Scientific goal to get answer for the right reason rather than get the right number • Sources of Uncertainty • Boundary conditions • Initial conditions • Structural formulation of physics • Parametric uncertainty • Numerical formulation • Downscaling and scaling noise

20. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Rood in a DoE Strategy Document • Quantifying primary variable uncertainty (e.g., temperature) and integrated responses (e.g., sea-level rise) and presenting this information in a way suitable for risk analysis. • Addressing uncertainty related to biases and misrepresentation of the variability of multi-scale, coupled processes and phenomena in climate models (e.g., mean state tropical biases and sea ice).

21. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty • Rood in a DoE Strategy Document • Addressing uncertainty related to mechanisms and processes known to be missing from climate models (e.g., ice sheet models and groundwater flow). • Exploring uncertainty related to specification of emission scenarios and, more generally, human enterprise.

22. Some Uncertainty References • Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Uncertainty Best Practices Communicating, 2009 • Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Transportation Gulf Coast, 2008 • Moss and Schneider, Uncertainty Reporting, 2000 • Pidgeon and Fischhoff, Communicating Uncertainty, 2011 • Lemos and Rood, Uncertainty Fallacy, 2010 • NRC Advancing Climate Modeling: Chapter 6 • Briley et al., Process Uncertainty, 2014 (in revision) • Tang and Dessai, Usable Science, 2012

23. Today: Planning and Uncertainty • Planning Scenario • Uncertainty • Extremes Again • What Are Extreme Events? • Are They Changing? • Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate Change’? • Communication

24. Extreme Weather Events

25. What is an Extreme? • Categorizing an event as “extreme” is a somewhat arbitrary procedure. • What is extreme at one space and time may be typical at another. • Extremes are at the tails of the distribution. How is “tail” defined? • Does extreme mean “rare” or simply high impact? • Generalized Extreme Value Theory US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

26. What is an Extreme? • Extremes are a natural component of a stable climate. • However, there are costs! US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

27. Trends Temperature Precipitation NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

28. Trends – Tornadoes? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

29. Trends – Snow? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

30. Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

31. Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

32. Trends - Issues • Data reliability • Technology, Coverage • Natural Variability • Regional Distributions • Is there an anthropogenic signature?

33. Trends • 2011 was a record-breaking year for Climate Extremes

34. 2011 Extremes • 14 Events of >$1 Billion in Damage • Effective Communication? NOAA News

35. 2011 Extremes NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

36. 2011 Extremes - Ranks NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

37. U.S. Climate Extreme Index CEI NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

38. Communication • This is one agency’s (NOAA) at communicating extreme events and trends to the public? • Is one of the figures particularly effective? • As a whole? • Other sources: • NOAA – Extreme Weather 2011 • Natural Resources Defense Council • Wunderground – Expert Blogs

39. How Might Extremes Change? US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

40. How Might Extremes Change? • Changes may be more complex IPCC SREX

41. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

42. Projected Precipitation Changes US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

43. Possible Changes in Hurricanes Can be basin specific! Emanuel (2007) Holland and Webster (2007)

44. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate • In general, similar to IPCC AR4 and IPCC SREX results. • Specific to North America. US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

45. Importance? • For U.S. • Cost are increasing for many reasons: • Population growth • Where people live • Changes in extremes (as shown) • Vulnerability (building codes) US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

46. IPCC Special Report on Extremes

47. Are These Reports Effective? • There are differences in the presentation of information. • Is one more effective than another? • What are the strengths? • Room for improvement? • How is it different when compared to IPCC AR4?

48. Example: Hurricanes • Strong storms, but less globally. Fractional Change Zhao et al. (2009)

49. Example: Hurricanes • This is important because: Meyer et al. (1997)

50. Example: Hurricanes • Also… adaptation… US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008