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Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Modeling

Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Modeling. Peter J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. 8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615. Summary. JPM Approach Statistics of land falling hurricanes

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Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Modeling

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  1. Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Modeling Peter J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. 8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615

  2. Summary • JPM Approach • Statistics of land falling hurricanes • Develop probability density functions for central pressure, heading, translation speed, land fall location • Model “typical tracks” • Assign weights to sample tracks with assigned values of pressure. • This study • Limited sample size of historical hurricanes • Use synthetic hurricanes from peer reviewed model in lieu of historical hurricanes • Run 100,000 years of synthetic hurricanes with coarse ADCIRC grid and retain all hurricanes producing storm surge with height greater than x to define the historical storm set • Use resylts in JPM approach as described above

  3. Simulation Methodology

  4. Coastal Segments

  5. Landfall Pressures

  6. Mile Posts

  7. Storm Statistics: MP 2200

  8. Storm Statistics: MP 2250

  9. Storm Statistics: MP 2300

  10. Storm Statistics: MP 2350

  11. Storm Statistics: MP 2400

  12. Summary • JPM Approach • Statistics of land falling hurricanes • Develop probability density functions for central pressure, heading, translation speed, land fall location • Model “typical tracks” • Assign weights to sample tracks with assigned values of pressure. • This study • Limited sample size of historical hurricanes • Use synthetic hurricanes from peer reviewed model in lieu of historical hurricanes • Run 100,000 years of synthetic hurricanes with coarse ADCIRC grid and retain all hurricanes producing storm surge with height greater than x to define the historical storm set • Use resylts in JPM approach as described above

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