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California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast SCE

This report provides revised electricity and natural gas forecasts for California, including average annual growth rates, comparison with previous forecasts, and the impact of TV standards, electric vehicles, and self-generation on peak demand.

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California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast SCE

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  1. California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast SCE February 7, 2012 Chris KavalecDemand Analysis OfficeElectricity Supply Analysis Division Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184

  2. SCE Electricity Sales • Average annual growth of 1.41%, 0.97%, and 0.67% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.27% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) • Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 • Lower in all three scenarios vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (3.4% lower in 2022 in mid case) • Econometric sales forecast 2.8% higher in mid case in 2022, 1.1% higher in high case

  3. SCE Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

  4. SCE Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

  5. SCE Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

  6. SCE Peak Demand • Average annual growth of 1.98%, 1.56%, and 1.01% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.40% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) • Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 and preliminary • Lower in all three cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast because of lower starting point, faster growth 2011-2022 in mid and high cases • Econometric forecast higher in all three cases (1.75% higher in mid case in 2022)

  7. SCE Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

  8. SCE Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

  9. SCE Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

  10. SCE TV Standards Savings

  11. SCE Electric Vehicles

  12. SCE Self-Generation Peak Impacts

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