Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 20, 2012

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

3. Project Timeline • 22 March 2012 • In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a 15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects will be in different stages, but should have a good idea of the scope and where you are going. This will be a time get some input and refine and focus. • This need not be polished, but should represent vision, structure, and some essential elements of knowledge. • 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation

4. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? • OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

5. Today • An interim synthesis of lectures, readings, discussions

6. Subjects that need covering • Stabilization • Military • Interface to adaptation • Geo-engineering • Sea Level • Elements of Argument

7. Climate Science-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

8. Framework Convention on ClimateChange

9. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

10. Economics • What about economics  does the cost of climate change motivate the development of policy, motivate action? • Stern Report • What are things that link society together?

11. Stern Report • Considered a radical revision of climate change economics. • If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20% of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of economy.) • Stands in contrast to many studies that usually come to numbers of closer to 1% • The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth rate will have little impact on the economy or environment in the beginning, but will ultimately become important when the nature of expenditures is more clear.

12. Global economic analysis • Stern Review: Primary Web Page • Stern Report: Executive Summary • Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report • Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report

13. Stern Review: Criticisms • Document is fundamentally political: An advocacy document. • Not up to the standards of academic economic analysis • Not based on empirical observations of the economy • Observed discount rates • Observed behavior

14. Economics • We see here a wide range of projected economic impacts • 1 % Gross Domestic Product • 20 % Gross Domestic Product • Large difference strongly related to discount rate: how fast does the cost of an investment depreciate? • Empirical • Belief based evaluation of environment and impact on most vulnerable people

15. Economics-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS POLICY UNCERTAINTY Economic analysis is not the compelling catalyst to converge the development of policy – at least on the global scale. Different story on the local scale. PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

16. Energy Security-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE ENERGY SECURITY POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

17. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

18. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

19. Policy? • As all of these pieces are brought to bear on policy, the fragmentation of those interests begins to show up in policy.

20. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

21. Fragmented Policy • Represents the real, rational interests of different elements. • short-term, long-term; local, global; poor, rich • As a whole, however, does not work together, and • may collectively work against, for instance, mitigation of climate change. • Fragmented policy becomes, perhaps, an accelerator or more integrated, more federal or global policy.

22. Impacts • The knowledge that comes from climate science suggests a set of impacts • Agriculture • Forestry • Fisheries • Public health • Water resources • ....

23. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

24. Consideration of Impacts (1) • Existing problem with existing system to address the problem • Weaknesses in the system often associated with population stress, by vulnerable population, highly (anti) correlated with wealth and education • Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the average • Hence want to know how extreme events will change • Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions • Motivator for “Kyoto like” policy?

25. Consideration of Impacts (2) • Strongest levers for addressing the problem are • Societal capability (social integration, structure, communications) • Environmental warnings and alerts • Education (first responders, general public, ....) • Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces, ...)

26. Imagine your job was to reduce deaths from heat waves POPULATION CONSUMPTION ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE It’s going to get hotter! MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE or USE MORE ENERGY or ...

27. Integrated or systematic impacts • Water resources, public health, agriculture, taken in isolation rich countries can imagine that they have technological and engineering solutions to these problems, but • what about their combined impacts

28. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY INTEGRATED IIMPACTS Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE ? OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

29. What important elements are still missing? • Law • Business • Religion • Geopolitical • Migration – what people do • Education

30. There are important elements still missing • Law • Law offers a possible entry into the “system.” • Links policy and de facto laws • Links economic windfalls and losses • Links impacts • Links ethical considerations • .... • Promotes, perhaps, policy

31. From Farber: Legal Status • Climate models establish a lower end estimate for global temperature impacts, but the distribution is less clearly bounded on the high side – or in simpler terms, the high-end risk may be considerable. The models are better at predicting temperature patterns than precipitation patterns, and global predictions are considerably firmer than more localized ones. • Economic models are much less advanced, and their conclusions should be used with caution. Unfortunately, economists are not always careful about incorporating uncertainty into their policy recommendations.

32. From Farber: Legal Status • Climate scientists have created a unique institutional system for assessing and improving models, going well beyond the usual system of peer review. Consequently, their conclusions should be entitled to considerable credence by courts and agencies. • Model predictions cannot be taken as gospel. There is considerable residual uncertainty about climate change impacts that cannot be fully quantified. The uncertainties on the whole make climate change a more serious problem rather than providing a source of comfort. The policy process should be designed with this uncertainty in mind. For instance, rather than focusing on a single cost-benefit analysis for proposed regulatory actions, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which oversees federal regulatory policy, might do better to require the development of standardized scenarios for agencies to use.

33. The Polar Bear Problem • The picture of polar bears in the sea motivated a lot of discussion about the Endangered Species Act ... • but, legal approaches have a difficult path,cause and effect, who are the damaged and damaging parties, what laws are relevant ... Polar Bear as Endangered Species

34. So what are the legal pathways? • Public nuisance • Clean Air Act • National Environmental Policy Act • Federal policy of pre-emption • Less stringent federal regulations rather than more stringent state regulations • Like tobacco liability litigation • Like gun liability litigation • Endangered Species Act

35. National Environmental Quality Act (1969) • Purpose • Sec. 2 [42 USC § 4321]. • The purposes of this Act are: To declare a national policy which will encourage productive and enjoyable harmony between man and his environment; to promote efforts which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; to enrich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural resources important to the Nation; and to establish a Council on Environmental Quality.

36. What are the obstacles? • Political Question / Judicial Competence • Court being asked, essentially, to make policy • Standing • The ability to show particular, or personal harm. • Causation • Demonstration that a particular, say, power plant or manufacturer has caused the harm

37. Law Readings on Local Servers • Supreme Court: Massachusetts versus EPA • Sigman: Liability and Climate Policy • Massachusetts Petition to the U.S. Supreme Court • US Govt Response to Massachusetts Petition • University of Pennsylvania Law Review (2007)

38. A case that has formed a path into climate change • Massachusetts versus US Environmental Protection Agency • Clean Air Act

39. Clean Air Act • Relevant text of Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act” "The Administrator [of EPA] shall by regulation prescribe . . . standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which in his judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare." • Section 302(g) of the Clean Air Act defines "air pollutant" as "any air pollution agent or combination of such agents, including any physical . . . substance or matter which is emitted into or otherwise enters the ambient air."  302(h) states that "effects on welfare" include "effects on soils, water, crops, . . . wildlife, weather . . . and climate . . .”

40. California and Clean Air Act • When the Clean Air Act was written California was given the ability to make more stringent standards. • States can choose either the California standard or the less stringent national standard (A motivator for federal policy is often the existence of many state and local policies.)

41. Supreme Court Decision • Supreme Court found in favor of Massachusetts • Had argued that they were threatened by sea level rise. • There was standing. • Had argued that carbon dioxide was a pollutant. • Supreme Court said carbon dioxide is a pollutant based on the definition in the Clean Air Act. • EPA did have the regulatory authority to regulate CO2.

42. Bush EPA Arguments • That to control carbon dioxide from cars was an issue of efficiency, which was the sole domain of the Department of Transportation. • That for the EPA to act would be a piecemeal approach to the problem, against the President’s wishes. • That taking action on cars would have no real effect because of other sources of CO2, including China. • That there was a political history that precluded EPA from acting.

43. Since then • California Attorney General Petition to EPA • “Global warming threatens California's Sierra mountain snow pack, which provides the state with one-third of its drinking water. California also has approximately 1,000 miles of coastline and levees that are threatened by rising sea levels.”

44. Since then • 2008: EPA has not, formally, taken action, and even their own lawyers have been quoted in the press as saying that EPA is not on solid legal grounds for doing nothing. • A political decision. • 2009: EPA Pressing using Clean Air Act to regulate CO2

45. More News • 2009: 2 Days before Copenhagen • EPA Decides to Enforce • How does U.S. Stake in Auto Industry impact this?

46. Even newer news • 2010: Bipartisan Move to Block EPA Regulating CO2 • Text of Joint Resolution • 2011: • Forbes: EPA and Climate in Budget and Government Shutdown • NY Times: State Greenhouse Gas Initiatives Lose Fed Support

47. Law vs Policy • Law, at least with U.S. EPA, leads to the idea of regulation. • In general, “people” prefer policy to regulation business risk? • Pushes towards regulation are deferred based on recession, recovery, political positioning

48. Where does litigation sit in the climate problem? • Motivator for the development of policy. • Law works on short-term and local scales. • Does not, often, extend to long-term and global scales. • Deliberative, case-by-case

49. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY LAW CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY INTEGRATED IIMPACTS Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE ? OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

50. Subjects that need covering • Stabilization • Military • Interface to adaptation • Geo-engineering