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The Impact of Emerging Societies on National Security Synthesis Outbrief. Members of the Synthesis Group. Dr. Dan Maxwell Dr. Carol Woody MAJ Ian McCulloh Dr. Donna Blake Dr. Tom Baldwin Dr. Michael Samsa Mr. Greg Keethler. Overall Observations.
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The Impact of Emerging Societies on National SecuritySynthesis Outbrief
Members of the Synthesis Group • Dr. Dan Maxwell • Dr. Carol Woody • MAJ Ian McCulloh • Dr. Donna Blake • Dr. Tom Baldwin • Dr. Michael Samsa • Mr. Greg Keethler
Overall Observations • There was an interesting and new mix of disciplines coming together at a MORS Workshop. • A consequence of this is a lot of energy was invested in learning to communicate – different perspectives & vocabularies • Beginning to make our way through this is in itself a contribution to the community • Most of the working group time was spent giving and listening to presentations. • There is need for a multidisciplinary effort for meeting the nation’s needs • Problem Owners (Operators and Policy Makers) • OR Analysts • Modelers & Simulators • Network Scientists • Social Scientists (Many disciplines) • Historians • …….. etc • Even some Engineers
Importance of Emerging Societies • Definition: The concept of an “emerging society” refers to a change from one social state to another of a society or social group – not just a change from an “old” society to a “modern” one, as is often portrayed in the popular press. • This becomes relevant when a threat or opportunity is perceived • Internal instability and conflict sometimes threaten US interests • Economic (e.g. access to natural resources) • Value Based (e.g. Genocide is bad) • Direct Threat to US (e.g. WMD or Attack on the US) • This implies a multi-dimensional set of analysis challenges. • Intelligence / Assessment – What is the situation and why to we care? • Intervention – What are we going to do about it? • At Multiple levels – Strategic, Tactical, Operational
Exemplar Analysis Questions • The role of the military is changing. • This is Bigger than the DoD.
The Importance of Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems • Societies are complex adaptive systems. This tells us • They can not be “controlled” • Interventions are one of many stimuli in the system • The “system” coevolves • A “Side X” action changes how “Side Y” behaves. • This is how macro behavior emerges • There is still a place for reductionism • Even though the whole is greater than the sum of the parts there are still parts • Analysis requires that we understand the parts • This is where macro models fall short • This is where correlation falls short • This is where there are disconnects between research disciplines
State of the Art (1) • There is almost universally a disconnect between micro and macro theories • Economics • Thermodynamics • Particle physics • ……. • A combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques are available and continually maturing independently Qualitative Quantitative Optimization Narrative Descriptions
State of the Art (2) • Network related sciences are mature and advancing; capitalizing on rapidly developing computer and supporting sciences • Empowered by Computational Capability • Very large networks • Longitudinal data • Multi-modal data • Network Metrics • Measures • Statistics • Information Communication • Visualization • Sonification • Immersion techniques • Network Simulation
State of the Art (2) • Other computational techniques are emerging and maturing that are also of potential value. E.g. • Multi-Agent Simulation • Ontologies • Databases • Text processing – Automated entity extraction
State of the Practice (in DoD) • Many of the maturing tools are making their way into application. • This can be a good thing -- Iff the underlying sciences are not abused • Current use of a tool is not evidence of validity • Levels of V&V and compatibility with the intended task varies greatly. • Translation of traditional V&V is unclear in these kinds of models • Heavy emphasis on comparison to historical developments • Subject Matter Expertise involved emphasizes practitioners versus theoreticians
State of the Practice (2) • Many of our mental models for framing decisions, analyses, and models are a bad fit for the social organizations and issues we face. • Actors are different (Tribes vs. Governments) • Variables are different (PK vs. Police present for duty) • Measures of effectiveness are well defined for military v. military – nation state activities • Goes to local optima at the expense of bigger goals • May foreclose other options • Congruence between long term goals and short term objectives
State of the Practice (3) • Current data is often very unreliable for the issues we face. • Sometimes due to the source • Sometimes due to classification • Sometimes due to weak meta data • Sometimes due to sketchiness
Major Findings • The discourse across disciplines is beginning, through MORS and other efforts, the gap is large. • There is mature science available that may be helpful. • There is sometimes a disconnect between the science and some of the operationally applied “tools”. • Well intentioned misapplication. • Because the data isn’t there.
Synthesis Level Recommendations to MORS and DoD • We need to find ways to bridge the schisms across disciplines if we are to make progress in gaining an understanding that is useful to our sponsors. • Real Multi-disciplinary teams • Need & Requirements Driven • Maturity of model & science needs to Guide Team composition • Develop a common sense of purpose & improved ability to communicate • Some of it is leadership • Some of it is finding ways to work across disciplines
Recommendations (2) • Basic and applied Research into multi-agent (Agent Based) simulations is necessary • Simulation Functionality (environment, agent behaviors) • Experimental Designs for analysis • Validation and verification (It’s a different world) • Expectation management is key • Basic and Applied Research in the underlying Social Sciences is Required. Some ideas are: • Empirical Approaches to collecting field data • Validating collected data • Looking at the intersection of disciplines