Examining the Future..

1. Examining the Future.. 2020 Design..

2. Today.. • Key elements of our future.. • Research shows that what we are looking at is highly likely to happen.. • Latest info!

3. Worldwide Economic Growth.. • Worldwide, economic growth is likely to continue as we approach 2020 • BRICS community growth • G8 Nations remaining stable but working hard to use high level skills and technology to sustain income and standard of living. • Infrastructures in the UK and Europe require modernisation but fraught with difficulties. • Whilst less established nations begin to expand and adapt more easily.

4. Global Warming Continues.. • Though new technologies and initiatives such as greater recycling and alternative energies reduce global warming, it continues to be a massive issue for every nation. • BRIC’s communities and Developing Nations do not have the right type of focus to initiate large scale eco-changes as they are more concerned with supporting economic growth rates. • Even if technology produces ‘THE’ solution – alternative energy that is clean easy to use, the ‘turnover’ to this type of technology will take many years.

5. Population Growth.. • Population growth continues unabated with 9 Billion people now on the planet. • Urbanisation levels give birth to the first Mega Cities with populations of 80 million. • Energy needs and pressure on life essential resources such and food and water are increasingly short. • Major changes in the way we live have occurred – lifestyles and communities. • Age and life expectancy is an issue… the world ‘deals’ in intelligent, skilled young workers!

7. Access to Knowledge.. • The human race is highly educated and highly skilled in many nations.. Perhaps now it is the G12 nations? • Knowledge is the key to handling life in 2020 as it is incredibly complex, we have truly worldwide relationships, we are enabled by intuitive and semantic technologies that everyone can use.. We can use this to transport ourselves all over the world.. • Developing nations now have rapid economic growth.. With growing wealth to invest in education and migrating workers seeking better, freer lives. • Lets have a look at some of the latest technologies..

8. Identity.. • How you identify yourself may change.. • Globalisation, mass travel and experience due to the different ways people interact will affect the way we think and have relationships.. • Already many families are split across the world.. • Increasing international careers • Incentives based on skill – countries attracting the skills they need! • What will your 2020 ID be?

10. Thinking about the future.. • Consequences? • War or collaboration? • Beliefs – Social change, availability of goods and services.. • Competition.. • Technology.. • Where will you be? • Design and Marketing predict the future and monitor change.. Especially as complexity increases and product development time does too.. • Contextualising these ideas with scenarios.. • Great film to watch – ‘Children of Men’

11. Silver Community.. • THE DRIVERS - Economic growth - Global Warming - Population growth contained – Wealth & power lies with 50+ people in major markets – Enabling technologies – free and easy access to knowledge..

12. Silver Community.. In this scenario population growth has been contained. Underdeveloped countries are managing their birth rates and within developed countries the birth rate remains low. The ageing population have slowly become the dominant force in many key markets – Europe, Japan, Russia and increasingly China. There is a growing reliance on them to be active participants in their community and to remain economically active and so the ‘Silver’ community emerge as an important force across the globe. Governments and business recognise that the Silver community possess the wealth, power and wisdom they need to help manage the complexity of life in 2020 and respond by exploring ways to engage with them and provide for their needs. Empowered by their value, enabled by technology and with easy access to knowledge and information, they make a significant contribution to the regions and communities in which they live. They bring wisdom and understanding; tackling and resolving big issues, such as determining environmental legislative needs and helping to find localised solutions to resource problems. The strength of the Silver communities means that people identify themselves more strongly with local, regional or like-minded communities, rather than seeing themselves as part of a global cultural melting pot.

14. Effects.. On the products and services we are providing: • Usability of products. • Shifting from product/service complexity to product/service simplicity (relevant to all). • Product design and communication interface design. • Product and service integration into one product. • New opportunities in service offerings • New consumers from developing markets. • Tailoring services to meet the needs of this group. • On the way they engage design: • More strategic design, people with strong insight skills, ability to create user-led design solutions.

15. BRIC’s Power.. • THE DRIVERS - Economic growth - Global Warming – Continued Population growth – Wealth & power lies with the BRIC economies, particularly China and India – Mega-cities Urbanisation – Free and easy access to knowledge - Identity shaped by strong regional alignments

16. BRIC’s Power.. • China and India have become powerful forces within the world economy. Russia’s power lies in its control of energy resources, amassing huge individual wealth. Brazil’s economic growth and large population gives it global bargaining power. The BRIC’s have established strong regional identities and their people are proud to associate themselves with their nation’s success. This shift towards regional/local identity has meant that ‘Glocalisation’ rather than ‘Globalisation’ has taken place. Multinational companies respond to the situation by producing goods and services that are ‘Mass-Glocal’ rather than Mass-Global. • Across the world, regions have become highly competitive, placing huge pressures on their populations to work hard, compete and maintain leading positions in the world market. China and India have seen significant growth over the last decade including size of population, wealth and demand for consumer goods with significant impact on energy and life essential resources worldwide. • Within all of these countries there is endemic social change. Whilst the impact on the quality of life for many has been positive, the move towards urbanisation and the emergence of Mega-Cities means many are still living in extreme poverty. Globally, there is an ever-widening void between those that have wealth and those that do not.

18. Effects.. • On the way they do business: • New business models, built around localising products/services, and maintaining value. • More competitive, with increasing penetration. • Mass-glocal might impact on how organisations ability to maintain a coherent message for a brand • On the products and services they deliver: • More people flying, reconsider product offering (planes how they are configured, more business, more economy etc?) • Rapid change, faster maturing markets, maintaining value and profitability, whilst still meeting each market consumers needs. • On the competencies they require: • Agility, and ability to create services, not just making product. • Ability to work with different cultures. • On the way they engage design: • Different design skills from designing single things to designing complex systems.. Expect them to challenge thinking not just offer the same capabilities with cost cutting.

19. Eco-Imperialism.. THE DRIVERS - Economic growth - Global Warming – Continued Population growth – Power lies with those who have life essential resources and those who have working age population – Mega-cities Urbanization – Technology enabled developing worlds - Free and easy access to knowledge – Globally diffused identity..

21. Eco-Imperialism.. • Global warming is a major issue! There is massive demand for the supply of energy and the other life essential resources on a global scale due to strong economic growth and population explosion, particularly in developing countries. Progress and technology in countries like Africa have enabled the developing world to participate in the global economy; becoming increasingly affluent and urbanised. Medical science has helped combat major diseases such as AIDS, improving the health and life expectancy of its population. • The world is split between those that have easy access to the life-essential resources and those that have a working age population. The management of the energy and people resources has created a global power struggle between those that have the wealth to purchase what they need; exploiting less wealthy countries that possess the energy resources they require. • A form of Eco-Imperialism exists, with Western environmental ideals being imposed on developing countries, often to detrimental effect. Countries like China hold political sway over chunks of oil rich Africa and can take ownership of oil produced in those countries. In Europe, breakthroughs in the development of alternative energy have provided the power to use new knowledge as a negotiation tool with other markets similar to the nuclear arms race. • However, in the major parts of Europe, the quality of life enjoyed for many years is now threatened by the ageing population and the expansion of the EU, which has put tremendous pressure on health and welfare systems, which has limited the regions potential to compete with thriving, younger economies in India and China. Europe now trades working age population to boost its workforce, ‘importing’ young workers from developing countries.

23. Effects.. • On the products and services they deliver: • Anticipate market growth for many businesses. • More business travel and more leisure travel - requiring new service approaches, more personalised, and culturalised. • Power/fuel/costs all need to be reduced and alternative solutions / alternative energy / alternative materials (e.g. bio-plastics) provided. • Changing demographics of consumers/travelers impacts on brand experience and strategy. • On the competencies they require: • Improved project management, improved networks, and technology that enables remote working. • On the way they engage design: • Innovation from those with a more fluid perspective or from a broad base of disciplines - chemistry, bio-chemistry, engineering, people with a rich world view. Awareness of diversity, and local knowledge in newer markets. • Ability to help organisations grow their own innovation culture. Experience design.