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Electoral Participation of Immigrants in European Cities

Electoral Participation of Immigrants in European Cities. Amparo González-Ferrer CSIC-IEGD & Univ. Pompeu Fabra Localmultidem Project Brussels, 28th January 2009. The research questions. Do immigrants assimilate in voting behaviour?

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Electoral Participation of Immigrants in European Cities

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  1. Electoral Participation of Immigrants in European Cities Amparo González-Ferrer CSIC-IEGD & Univ. Pompeu Fabra Localmultidem Project Brussels, 28th January 2009

  2. The research questions • Do immigrants assimilate in voting behaviour? • If not, what are the factors accounting for the lack of assimilation? • In particular, which is the role played by immigration regulations and naturalisation regimes? • Do we observe variations across generations? Why?

  3. Previous Research • Voting behaviour of naturalised immigrants in the US • Scarce research on immigrants’ voting in Europe, except from UK • Alternative focus of interest: political engagement, associational membership, informal political action, etc. • (Ethnic vs. Cros-ethnic) Social Capital • POS (national and sub-national level)

  4. Main theoretical approaches • Resources model • Political orientations model • Immigration model • (Ethnic) social capital hypothesis • Political opportunity structures • Contextual factors (polarisation, presence of anti-immigrant parties)

  5. Previous Results • Against expectations, naturalised immigrants do not participate more • There is no a clear intergenerational pattern, but it varies across origin groups. In any case, no linear assimilation • Inconclusive results about differential effect of ethnic & cross-ethnic social capital effect • Support for the POS approach, although poor measurement and little attention to cultural dimension

  6. Hypotheses about POS • Naturalisation Selection Effect • Escape into naturalisation • Combined effect?

  7. Definitions Nauralised Immigrant: Individual of immigrant origin that acquired the host nationality after birth Second Generation: Individual of immigrant origin born in the country of residence

  8. Sample size by group & city

  9. Sample size by group & city

  10. The dependent variable: turnout in the host country's national elections

  11. Assimilation in voting behaviour?

  12. Naturalisation Selection Effect?

  13. Escape into Naturalisation?

  14. Effect of these two specific POS indicators on voting probability

  15. Intergenerational Patterns • In general, second generation vote more than naturalised first generation immigrants (also for Muslim groups) • The role of ethnic associations and their impact on voting behaviour seems to vary across generations but gap with autochthonous still remain

  16. Technical and Theoretical Limitations • A major question on representativeness and selection bias! • Lack of cross-groups comparisons • Mobilisation indicators (residential concentration, length of group's residence) • Other institutional characteristics (electoral system, open candidates' lists, etc...)

  17. What to do? • Focusing on naturalised and take out the second generation • If so: 1. Analysis of turnout gaps 2. Complementary analysis on the selection process involved in naturalisation???

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