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Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience

Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience. Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D Distinguished Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute UNDESA: Expert Group Meeting 15-16 October 2008. Outline of Presentation. The name of the game!

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Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience

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  1. Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D Distinguished Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute UNDESA: Expert Group Meeting 15-16 October 2008

  2. Outline of Presentation • The name of the game! • Relevant normalizations of indicators • Sustainability trajectories • The real issue for developing countries: adaptation

  3. The Name of the Game: Blame India, China, Brazil…

  4. HDI and Energy Consumption • Modern energy use is critical for development • Over 450 million people without access to electricity. • India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic and social well being. This is not possible without increased energy use. • We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of 8%+ per annum over 20-30 years is essential to lift the bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of life. Development and poverty eradication is also an imperative for adaptation to climate change 4

  5. Energy is Critical For Development and Improving HDI 5

  6. Present day per capita CO2 emissions- those at the top of the curve want the ones at the bottom to take action to combat climate change! Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons! 6 6

  7. Relevant Normalizations of Sustainability Indicators:

  8. Source: TERI analysis (various data sources) 8

  9. Into the Trash It Goes The food an American family throws away each month. New York Times: May 18, 2008.

  10. Municipal solid waste Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use) GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp) 10 Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries

  11. Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km) Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources 11

  12. The Importance of Development Trajectories:

  13. Sustainable Development Trajectories: • Kuznets curves: • During a country’s development, several development related indicators at first worsen, and then improve • Historically, with environmental Kuznets curves, present developed societies have shown turning points at c. $ 6000-8000 PPP per capita

  14. Schematic representation of the Environmental Kuznets curve Indicator Income: PPP$ per capita c. PPP$ 7000 (Typical for current developed countries)

  15. Turning Points: Energy Intensity Parameter: Kgoe per PPP$ GDP Source: Econometric analysis by TERI, based on IEA data, 2008

  16. India’s turning point for energy intensity was reached in the 1980s Source: Planning Commission 16 16

  17. The fossil fuel CO2 intensity of the Indian economy in 2004 was the same as Japan; better than Germany! Data: “Growth and CO2 Emissions – How do different countries fare?” : Roger Bacon and Soma Bhattacharya: World Bank, 2007: 17

  18. 18 Source: BEE, 2007

  19. Specific Energy Consumption in Integrated Steel Plants 22% reduction in SEC from 1990-91 to 2004-05 Actual impact higher as share of D/R rising Source: Steel Authority of India Ltd.

  20. 20 Source: BEE, 2007

  21. Cement: Energy Consumption Profile (Dry Process - Wtd. Avg.) BEST IN INDIA BEST IN WORLD THERMAL ENERGY KCAL/KG CL. WET KILNS: INDIA 5% US 18% SHARE OF BLENDED CEMENT OVER 60% ELECTRICAL ENERGY KWH/T CEMENT Source: CMA

  22. 22 Source: BEE, 2007

  23. India has the world’s most energy efficient oil refinery! Source: Shell Global benchmarking study in ‘Energy & Loss’ performance

  24. EKC Curves: Turning Points for Air Quality, PPP$ per capita Sources:CRB: Cole et.al., 1997; MK: Mukherjee and Kathuria, 2006

  25. EKC Curves: Water Quality: Turning Points for BOD and COD PPP$ per capita Sources: GK: Grossman and Krueger, 1995; TERI: The Energy & Resources Institute, 2008

  26. The Real Climate Change Issue for Developing Countries: The Costs of Adaptation

  27. Reality check! India’s fiscal expenditures on programs directly related to adaptation to climate variability was 2.63% of GDP in 2006-07! 27

  28. Where the money went… Development is the best form of adaptation! 28

  29. India Doesn’t Need Lesson’s on Sustainability!

  30. Thank You for Your Attention! 31

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