The CAP reform process in perspective: issues of the post-2013 debate

1. The CAP reform process in perspective:issues of the post-2013 debate Tassos Haniotis, Director Directorate for Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

2. The long-term CAP perspective The general context of the CAP debate The question about “P” in the CAP The question about the "C" in the CAP The debate about the two pillar structure of the CAP The post HC context of the CAP debate Volatility in agricultural production and prices Impact of the economic crisis on agriculture Food security in the context of climate change and limited resources The institutional context of the CAP debate New European Parliament and Commission Lisbon Treaty WTO prospects

3. Direct payments Markets Income Risk management Food chain issues Basic rate GAEC Market instruments Other criteria Public goods Rural development Structural adjustment Innovation Environment Territory The CAP debate at a glance Economic crisis Climate change Budget

4. For further information • The CAP after 2013 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm • EU agriculture and CAP reform http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_en.htm • Economic Analysis and Evaluation http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/index_en.htm • Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/perspec/index_en.htm

5. Thank you

6. Markets Modulation The CAP and the budget Pillar I Direct payments Pillar II Rural Development

7. CAP expenditure and CAP reform path EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 Source: European Commission – DG Agriculture and Rural Development

8. Alternative views on the cost of the CAP CAP cost in 2008 (in absolute terms) CAP cost in 2008 (in relative terms) 44% of EU budget 0.43% of EU GDP Source: European Commission – DG Agriculture and Rural Development

9. CAP budget trends in perspective Source: European Commission – DG Agriculture and Rural Development

10. Evolution of commodity price indexes (1960-2009)

11. Cumulative reductions in EU price support Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development

12. The evolving role of EU support prices - wheat Sources: European Commission- DG Agriculture and Rural Developmentand World Bank

13. Impact of CAP reforms on EU net production surplus Sources: European Commission – Eurostat and DG Agriculture and Rural Development

14. Recent trends in some commodity market prices Sources: European Commission- DG Agriculture and Rural Developmentand World Bank

15. Long-term price evolution along the food supply chain Food consumer prices Overall inflation (HICP) Agricultural commodity prices Food producer prices Source: European Commission – DG Economic and Financial Affairs, based on Eurostat and Agriview data

16. Direct payments per ha eligible area (excl. Malta*) *Malta: 801.7 EUR/ha

17. Share of DP and total subsidies in agricultural income EU-15 EU-12 Source: European Commission – DG Agriculture and Rural Development

18. EU developments in agricultural income(agricultural income/AWU in real terms) EU-12 EU-15 Source: Eurostat

19. Recent evolution of agricultural input and output prices Source: Eurostat

20. The three 2007-2013 RD thematic axes in the MS Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development