Issues in the Budget Debate

1. Issues in the Budget Debate Bob Greenstein July 19, 2011

2. Medicare and Medicaid Expected to Rise Rapidly, Other Programs (Except Social Security) to Shrink, As Share of GDP Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP Source: CBPP projections based on CBO data.

3. Economic Downturn and Legacy of Past Policies Drive Record Deficits in the Decade Ahead Source: CBPP analysis based on Congressional Budget Office estimates.

4. Tax Expenditures Are Substantial Note: Tax expenditure figures exclude Recovery Act provisions that were allowed to expire, but include those that have been extended. Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office.

5. Medicare and Medicaid Controlled Costs Better than Private Insurance Over the Last Decade Average Annual Growth Rate, 2000-2009 Private Per Capita, Comparable to Medicare Medicaid Per Beneficiary Medicare Per Beneficiary Private Employer Insurance Premiums Source: CBPP analysis.

6. Nearly Two-Thirds of Proposed Cuts in Ryan Plan Come From Low Income Programs Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution

7. Ryan Proposal Would Double Health Care Spending of Typical 65-Year Old Source: Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director, Congressional Budget Office, Letter to the Honorable Paul Ryan, April 5, 2011, and CBPP calculations. Current Medicare is CBO’s alternative fiscal scenario. Note: Beneficiary’s share of spending includes premiums out-of-pocket costs for covered services, and any payments for supplemental insurance.

8. Reductions in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Under Corker Cap If the Spending Reductions Are Achieved Through the Bill’s Automatic Cuts Source: CBPP analysis based on Congressional Budget Office data

9. What the RSC Budget Does • Eliminates 70% of non-defense discretionary funding — including older Americans’ Act programs — by 2021. Cuts these programs more than $3 trillion over 10 years, compared to the FY 2011 funding levels Congress approved in April. • Similar to Ryan budget in Medicare, except that its Medicare cuts are even deeper than Ryan’s. • Raises Social Security retirement age to 70. • Cuts Medicaid, SSI for the elderly and disabled poor, and food stamps in half. • Cuts Medicaid and CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program) by over $2 trillion over 10 years.

10. Deficit in 2021 Would Be Cut Nearly in Half Simply by Letting All of the Bush Tax Cuts Expire Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from the Congressional Budget Office.

11. Federal Income Taxes Historically Low Source: Treasury Department, 1955-1996; Tax Policy Center update, 1997-2010.

12. Cost of Extending Tax Cuts Exclusively for Upper-Income Taxpayers Roughly Equals Social Security Shortfall Source: Social Security Administration, CBPP based on Congressional Budget Office and President Obama’s FY 2012 Budget.

13. Highly Uneven Income Growth Has Substantially Worsened Income Inequality Source: CBPP calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.