Report from the Scientific Project Manager

1. Report from the Scientific Project Manager 7th COSMO GENERAL MEETING 18 – 21 September 2006 Bucharest Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

2. Report from the Scientific Project Manager Scientific activities will be presented by WP coordinators and by our colleagues. I will report only general comments about our activities during the past year COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

3. Boundary Conditions for activities planning in COSMO Perspectives in European Numerical Forecasting • GCM 10 km horiz. resolution • LAM ~1 km horiz. Resolution • Assimilation of frequent/high density data • New developments are required in the new generation of models • Direct model output attractive for users (hydrology, air quality)!!! • New evaluation/verification procedures • Model adaptation/probabilistic interpretation • Increasing development of Ensemble Prediction Systems both as a complement of deterministic forecasting and for assimilation systems COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

4. COSMO Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years) • Develop and improve ensemble prediction systems based on LM (including cloud resolving scale) • Assimilation of ‘all’ available observationssfc / profiles / radar / satellites…high resolutionalso slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) • LM performance known, critically discussed and improved Need for more collaboration with other Consortia Mathias Rotach Talk COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

5. Priority Projects • To better concentrate joint COSMO efforts • To optimize the use of COSMO human resources • To facilitate management related to goals which are Considered to be prioritary Problems related to many activities and lack of resources Priority Projects introduced in 2005 COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

6. Scientific Working Groups WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WG6 The present scientific organizationof COSMO SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 SIR 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA LM_Z COSMO Priority Projects RK UTCS SREPS INTERPRETATION TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

8. 16th Meeting of the COSMO STC Zürich, December 1 and 2, 2005 • 12th Meeting of the COSMO SAC DWD - Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 • 13th Meeting of the COSMO SAC ARPA-SIM - Bologna, 7-8 Sept. 2006 • 17th Meeting of the COSMO STC Bucharest, General Meeting 2006 & WGs and Projects meetings & Reporting COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

10. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 • Some of the Projects are still suffering for lack of human resources. For some projects we had tasks without FTE committed and other tasks too crowded. • We still have quite relevant problems about communications. Reports are not delivered on time and, in several cases, not delivered at all. : our COSMO spirit should increase!!! COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

11. Necessity to speed-up the procedure to define activities and projects • May 2006 • The Projects years will be redefined from October to September to be synchronized with the COSMO year. • Projects should be drafted (almost ready) for the SAC meeting of September. • Project drafts will be available on the WEB after the SAC meeting of September. • Projects will be finalized after the contributions coming from the GM discussions • Projects approval by STC will be done at the end of the general meeting. •  • Feedback by STC to project leaders before October the 15th • The project leaders will interact directly with STC members as regards the allocation of FTEs on the different project • Commitments to PL‘s: Nov 15 • Mid November 2006 • May 2005 • SAC (WP Coordinators + SPM) defines a preliminary list of projects fitting COSMO strategy • General Meeting parallel sessions: collection of proposals and fine- tuning of projects • SAC defines a priority list to be submitted to the decisions of STC • STC selects a limited (one-digit) numbers of “top priority projects” • WP coordinators identify Project Leaders • Project Leaders prepare a detailed Project description and a clear project plan (project activities, human resources, milestones) • STC gives the final approval of the projects • STC members assigns human resources to the projects • Final allocation of FTEs after several iterations • Mid of January 2006 COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

12. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 • The paucity of scientific publications is one of the criticality within COSMO. Scientific papers can be included in the list of deliverables of COSMO projects. • It is important to have on the WEB an updated list of publications related to COSMO and also of presentations at meetings. COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

13. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 • The COSMO WEB: the management of the web is now working but the content must be revised and updated regularly. • It is necessary to have a common name for our model. Different names associated to the different national applications induce confusion in the people outside COSMO. COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

14. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 • Evaluation of the FTE actually devoted to the Projects by the COSMO Partners: the computation has been performed and discussed. • Results will be presented at the STC during the general meeting. COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

15. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006: COSMO delegation As decided during the 2005 EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting held in Slovenia, each Consortium will have 15 minutes for the presentation by the SPM and 2 hours to give scientific presentations in the following thematic areas: • Assimilation • Numerics and coupling numerics/physics • Physics • Predictability and EPS COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

16. 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006 13th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006: COSMO delegation • Assimilation C.Schraff : Overview and strategy on data assimilation. The 1DVAR projects to assimilate satellite data. D.Leun: The LHN scheme of COSMO • Numerics and coupling numerics/physics J.Steppeler: Overview and strategy on Numerics. The LMZ including coupling Num. &Phys., D.Cesari: The Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian version of LM_Z • Physics M.Arpagaus: Overview and strategy on LM Physics. D.Mironov: The UTCS project • Predictability and EPS P.Eckert: COSMO ensemble systems C. Marsigli: the COSMO SREPS project COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

17. COSMO Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years) • Develop and improve ensemble prediction systems based on LM (including cloud resolving scale) • Assimilation of ‘all’ available observationssfc / profiles / radar / satellites…high resolutionalso slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) • LM performance known, critically discussed and improved Need for more collaboration with other Consortia Mathias Rotach Talk COSMO General Meeting 2006 - Bucharest

18. Supporting slides