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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups). UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance 2010. แผนเอดส์ชาติ 2555-9 : Getting to Zero.

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การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups)

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  1. การประมาณการจำนวนประชากรกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV (Size estimation of HIV high risk groups) UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance 2010

  2. แผนเอดส์ชาติ 2555-9 : Getting to Zero

  3. Projection of new HIV infections during 2012-2016 using AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) 3

  4. เราห่างจาก ศูนย์ เท่าไหร่? ติดเชื้อ ตาย ตีตรา

  5. ประมาณการกลุ่มเสี่ยงต่อการติดเชื้อ HIV ทำยังไง? 1. สำรวจแหล่งข้อมูลที่มีอยู่แล้ว - คลินิกกามโรค? - ศูนย์บำบัดยาเสพติด? - ห้องฉุกเฉิน? - เรือนจำ? 2. พิจารณา จุดอ่อน จุดแข็ง ของข้อมูลและฐานข้อมูล 3. สำรวจเพิ่มเติม

  6. UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010 วิธีที่เน้นการเข้าถึงกลุ่มเสี่ยง

  7. UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010 วิธีที่เน้นการเข้าถึงกลุ่มเสี่ยง

  8. UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010 วิธีที่เน้นการเข้าถึงกลุ่มเสี่ยง

  9. UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010 วิธีที่เน้นการเข้าถึงกลุ่มเสี่ยง

  10. วิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไปวิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไป UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010 Multi-stage block sampling

  11. Network Scale-up Methods:ค้นหาจาก”คนที่รู้จัก”

  12. วิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไปวิธีที่เน้นการสำรวจจากประชากรทั่วไป UNAIDS /WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2010

  13. Technical working group for national estimation • A technical working group consisted of representatives from various organizations were formed: • Bureau of Epidemiology (BOE) • Chulalongkorn University • East-West Center • MEASURE • National AIDS Management Center (NAMC) • Research Institute for Health Sciences (RIHES) • Thailand MoPH– U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC) • UNAIDS • UNFPA • Six meetings were held during September – December 2011 to discuss and find the best currently available estimates figures

  14. Steps in estimation for each population * • Determine utilization of the size estimation and when it will be needed • To determine program coverage and national cost estimates for programs • Regular national size estimation will be needed e.g. every two years • Define population and geographic area • Population is defined based on recent behavior (e.g. sex with another man in the past year, injecting within the past 2 years) • Area = national estimates (details on how to arrive at the national estimates will be discussed in other section) • Review existing data sources for estimation • Existing data sources for each population were reviewed. Limitations and strengths of each method were discussed.

  15. Steps in estimation for each population (continued)* • Compile existing data and collect additional data e.g. • Proportion of IDU, FSW, MSM behaviors reported in surveillance data over years • Additional mapping data on FSW & MSM from BMA and STI cluster • Discuss with key informants • Identify strengths and limitations from each source and how the existing data could be interpreted e.g. • Minimal or maximum estimates • Overall or sub-groups • Geographic coverage of estimation

  16. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Determine approaches and assumptions to be used for calculating national size estimates of each population • Triangulation of available data sources (e.g. survey data over years, literature review) to get a ‘fixing’ parameter as opposed to picking one estimation method that is currently available • Account for over or under estimates of the existing data source • Verify the estimates with other additional supporting information e.g. • IBBS among male military conscripts and vocational school student to examine distribution of estimated populations • AIDS case data

  17. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Identify follow up issues needed to be addressed for improving future national estimates e.g. • Additional questions on the IBBS survey to identify proportion of population/sub-groups of interest

  18. Sex workers (FSWs/ MSWs):Available Data Sources *from field experience

  19. MSM:Available Data Sources

  20. RDS Recruitment site Network Scal-up Recruitment site Number of participants by districts(Chiang Mai) Estimation: 1,500 (727-6000 N = 309 (Missing data = 1) Muang 228 N=409 in 8 areas (Chiang Mai) Estimation: 2,260 – 4,012 Number of participants in districts 0 1-10 11-20 21-40 >40 Omkoy 32

  21. Conclusion: IDU size estimate for 2010-2011 National Household Survey on Substance Abuse, 2011 Method: Ask direct question ‘Have you ever injected drug?’ Results: Ever injected any drugs = 29,300 IDUs Asian Epidemic Model based on RDS study in Bangkok, 2004 Method: Assumptions 1: 30% underestimation Assumption 2: Bangkok/National AIDS case ratio can be a multiplier. Results: Any injections in the past 6 months = 38,300 IDUs Regional NSUM Survey, 2010 Method: Known population scale-up & Summation: Results: IDUs known in the past 2 years = 40,300 – 97,300 Consensus number (10 Jan. 2012) = 40,300 Technical Consultation: Size Estimation of MARPs in Asian Countries (23-5 September, 2013, Hong Kong )

  22. Migrant workers:Available Data Sources *from field experience

  23. Overview of methods used & results

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