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Operational Analysis for HQ 1(UK)Armd Div on Op TELIC

Operational Analysis for HQ 1(UK)Armd Div on Op TELIC. John G Owen Jarrod Cornforth Dstl Support to Operations Group. OA Support Pre-Deployment. Work during Nov 02 - Jan 03 Conducted and reported by analysts at HQ Land Command Supported by analysts at Dstl

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Operational Analysis for HQ 1(UK)Armd Div on Op TELIC

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  1. Operational Analysis forHQ 1(UK)Armd Div onOp TELIC John G Owen Jarrod Cornforth Dstl Support to Operations Group

  2. OA Support Pre-Deployment • Work during Nov 02 - Jan 03 • Conducted and reported by analysts at HQ Land Command • Supported by analysts at Dstl • Examination of ‘Northern Option’ plan • Land combat modelling • Logistic estimates (reworked for ‘Southern Option’)

  3. OA Support on Deployment • HQ started to deploy in mid-Jan 03 • 2 analysts deployed 28 Jan 03 • Remained with Div HQ Main throughout • Analysts attached to G3 Plans • Worked for cells in HQ and DSG • Also for Brigade HQs • Some reachback support from NCHQ and UK • But little used because of comms problems

  4. OA Workspace

  5. Accomodation for Analysts

  6. Local Scenery

  7. OA Tasks in Support of Warfighting • Static Scoring and Force Ratio estimates • Battle modelling • Outcomes and casualty levels • Risk to helicopters from ground fire • Campaign intensity and duration • Logistic and movement estimation • Ammunition requirements • Logistic reach • Spreadsheet tools of convoy movement

  8. Example Questions • What is the ability of units of 16 Air Asslt Bde to occupy GOSPs against opposition? • What is the effect of exchanging a BG of 16 Air Asslt Bde for a square BG of 7 Armd Bde?

  9. Methods Used • Examination of force ratios using the BAMS static scoring system • Estimation of attrition and battle outcome using the combat model WPT

  10. Force Comparisons Iraqi Force 3RHA Square Armd BG 4 BGs exchanged Square Armd BG 3 Square Armd BG 2 Square Armd BG 1 7RHA 3 Regt AAC D Sqn HCR Pathfinder Pl BAMS Scores 1 R Irish 3 Para 1 Para 0 16 Air 7 Armd 16 Air 7 Armd Inf Bn + Tk Regt Mech Inf Inf Bde Mech Arm Bde Asslt Bde Asslt Bde Mor Bn Bn + Arty Bde + + Div Bde Bde Regt Div Arty Arty

  11. Fighting in the GOSPs • Do not want to damage the installations • Limited lines of sight, built-up area – urban combat? THEREFORE: • No UK Arty, Avn or Air support • Iraqi artillery can be used • Apply degradation factors, from historical analysis, to attrition rates

  12. Impact of Combat Work • Military planners also do modelling • Force ratio work and battle modelling generally reinforced rather than contradicted military assessment • No ‘wargaming’ carried out - no time! • Provided a degree of independent corroboration

  13. X Km from RSG to Fwd Ech MATERIEL Z DAYS BULK FUEL Z DAYS Logistic Reach Y Km from Viper to Fwd Ech RSG AT KUWAIT MATERIEL STRETCH BULK FUEL STRETCH BFI AT VIPER TIME REQUIRED TO MOVE START UP STOCKS & SUSTAIN FWD ELEMENTS

  14. Moving Into Iraq

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