Science and Diplomacy Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances

1. Science and Diplomacy Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances K. Madhava Sarma and Stephen O. Andersen

2. Pioneering Antarctic Treaty • Deeply Rooted in Scientific Cooperation • First to Protect a Global Commons • Applying Precaution to Limit Development • Serving as a Framework for Other Agreements • Institutionalizing Polar Atmospheric Monitoring • Setting the Stage to Discover the Ozone Hole • Hosting the Science that Condemned CFCs • Critical to Confirm Science of Ozone Recovery

3. PNAS Reducing Abrupt Climate Change Risk Using The Montreal Protocol And Other Regulatory Actions To Complement Cuts In CO2 Emissions Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Donald Kaniaru

4. The Montreal Protocol and its Amendments & Adjustments Worlds avoided Total ODS abundance • > The Montreal Protocol reduced global ODS production and consumption in developed and developing nations • (Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer signed 22 March 1985, Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer signed 16 September 1987; Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol entered into force 1 January 1989) UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006

5. Montreal Protocol Protects Climate Montreal Protocol has provided 10-11 times climate protection that Kyoto seeks From: Velders Guus J. M., Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey, and Mack McFarland, The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online Mar 8, 2007.

6. The Antarctic & Ozone Science The Antarctic Treaty provided a research platform for the science behind ozone depletion The Antarctic: Was where ozone depletion was observed at alarming rates Is the location of a frightening “ozone hole” that inspired the global action, Was where scientists proved the link between CFCs and ozone depletion, Is where recovery of the ozone layer will first be scientifically confirmed.

7. 1987 Montreal Protocol on ODS (as amended from time to time) • Most successful environmental Treaty ever • Only Treaty with all 195 countries of the world. • Collaboration of scientists, governments, NGOs, media, and the United Nations • Multilateral Fund built assists all developing countries • All countries implement the agreements faithfully and report data on the 96 controlled ODSs • Atmospheric abundance of ODSs peaked in 1994 and has been steadily declining • Montreal Protocol is indeed working • Ozone layer will recover by the year 2050 • Without Montreal Protocol- ozone decrease by two-thirds, many more skin cancers, cataracts, …

8. Reasons for Montreal Success • Strong role played by scientists, technologists in pace and evolution of the Protocol control measures • Development and deployment of ozone-safe technologies by industry • Protocol financial regime transferring technologies to developing countries on fair and favourable terms

9. Science asEarly Warning • 1957/1958 Geophysical Year - worldwide network of stations developed to measure ozone • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established framework for ozone-observing, research, & publications • 1970 - Paul Crutzen warns of catalytic loss of ozone by the reaction of nitrogen oxides,even from agricultural fertilizer • 1971 - Harold Johnston warns that nitrogen oxides from proposed supersonic aircraft (SST) could deplete ozone • 1972 – Crutzen estimates ozone depletion from proposed SSTs • 1971 - James McDonald warns that even a small change in stratospheric ozone could significantly increase skin cancer • 1974 – Mario Molina and Sherwood Rowland warn that CFCs used in ordinary products can destroy the ozone layer

10. Science as a Force for Change • Rowland and Molina presented finding at a press conference at a meeting of the American Chemical Society • Warning that even a 10 percent depletion would cause 80,000 additional cases of skin cancer each year in the United States alone, along with genetic mutations, crop damage, and even changes in the world’s climate • Media coverage prompted consumer groups to demand a ban on the use of CFCs in aerosol products • The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) petitioned the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission to ban the use of CFCs in cosmetic and convenience aerosol products • Many Governments – including Canada, Sweden and USA -- took measures to reduce the ODS consumption where alternatives are available

11. Science as Confidence-Building • UN organized scientists from many countries in a collaborative effort • UNEP 1977 meeting in Washington D.C developed a World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer • WMO coordinated atmospheric research • WHO assessed the impacts on human health, FAO assessed biological effects, WMO developed computational climate models, FAO developed Regional climate effects • UNEP, ICC, OECD,& ICAO evaluated socio-economic aspects • UN specialized agencies and international, national, intergovernmental, NGO, and scientific institutions identified institutions to implement controls • UNEP established the Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer (CCOL)

12. Science as a Beacon to Industry • 1975-80 - DuPont, Allied, and ICI identified safe alternatives for some CFC applications, but did not pursue • Science warnings caused industry to fear local regulation; Vienna Convention further confirmed regulation was certain • 1987: After a decade of opposition to regulation, industry claimed lack of regulation prevented it from introducing alternatives • Within the year, industry, environmental NGOs, and U.S. EPA as also Canadian and Japanese companies announced voluntary national CFC phase-out in some sectors

13. Science as a Tool of Diplomacy • 1989 Assessment concludes: Protocol inadequate and that return of Antarctic ozone layer to pre-1970s level needs complete elimination of all ODS, technically and economically feasible, developing countries need funding and transfer of technology • 1990 Protocol agrees to completely phase out by 2000, with ten-year grace period for developing countries and a Multilateral Fund financed by the developed countries • 1991 assessment led to 1992 amendment, HCFCs, HBFCs and Methyl Bromide as controlled substances;. • Phase out of many ODS advanced to 1996 and halons to 1994. • Further strengthening in 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2007 • 96 chemicals are on schedule for phase out

14. Many Other Roles of Science • Mechanism for monitoring and verification • Source of Assessment Reports, Antarctic Ozone Bulletins, and more • Measure of performance: 2006 Assessment Report concluded that the Montreal Protocol is a success and that the ozone layer will recover • Record of faster phaseout, lower costs & better products • Quantification that the Montreal Protocol has reduced greenhouses more than the Kyoto Protocol and can buy time while CO2 reductions take hold

15. Ozone-Safe Technology Development • Many companies innovated new technologies fast • Industry Motivated byrespect for science, social reputation and good will; regulatory, economic and strategic advantage; and public relations, and employee motivation • Global Industry--in cooperation with government agencies and scientists--accelerated the pace of toxicity testing, determinedenvironmental fate and impacts of alternatives, speeding the elimination of ODSs and supporting phaseout and health and safety regulations • Costs of eliminating ODS far less than the consequences of ozone depletion and far less than feared

16. Technology and Economic Assessment Process • Annual, up-to-date, technical assessments, 6 technical options committees (TOC) - Governments cannot interfere with findings • Governments may propose members to TOCs, but Co-chairs decide • Industry on the TOCs and the TEAP provides access to cutting-edge data, often not yet published • Code of conduct for TEAP and TOCs • TEAP and TOCs spearheaded more aggressive phaseout, solve the many problems faced by the Parties, and recommended levels of MLF replenishment for phaseout in developing countries

17. The Protocol Rolein Spreading Technologies • Early action, continuous learning, progressively tougher action, universal agreement and compliance • Involvement of all the Stakeholders • Training of those involved • Regulations and Policies, financial incentives, disincentives, and taxes to speed up phase out

18. Fund & Implementing Agency Technology Transfer • Developing and developed Parties equally represented in the Fund Executive Committee • Contributions to the MLF, 2.5 US$ billion so far • Written indicative list of incremental costs, and the right of MLF to interpret each entry • National focal points and 9 regional networksfacilitate feedback to the MLF, learning from each other, with the transfer of expertise and technology from one country to another (including south-south and south-north cooperation) • Donor countries bilateral programmes encouraged but must be approved by the Executive Committee

19. Conclusion • The International Geophysical Year and Antarctic Science Ultimately Helped Justify Fast Action by the Montreal Protocol • The Montreal Protocol Avoided Millions of Deaths from Skin Cancer and the Destruction of Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems • All Countries Joined the Montreal Protocol • ODS Greenhouse Gas Reductions Are Buying Time While Climate Protocols Kick In

20. Contact Information K. Madhava Sarma Sarma_Madhava@yahoo.com Stephen O. Andersen SOliverAndersen@aol.com

21. Backup Slides

22. Ozone Layer and ODS • The ozone layer protects life on earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation (UV) • Emissions of human made ozone-depleting substances (ODS) destroy ozone • UV radiation increases skin cancer, weakens human immune systems, damages crops and natural ecosystems and degrades paint and plastic • Most of these ODS are also powerful greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change that threatens prosperity and life on earth

23. Ozone Depleting Substances • Ozone-depleting CFCs invented in 1928 to replace flammable and toxic refrigerants • CFCs are ‘wonder gases’ non-reactive, non-flammable, low toxicity and a long atmospheric life • By the late 1980s, more than 250 separate product categories were made-with, or contained, ODSs • Critical uses of ODSs-medical applications (metered dose medicine inhalers, sterilisation); refrigeration; air conditioning; foam; solvents for cleaning of electronic and mechanical components; soil, building and commodity fumigation and fire protection

24. The Success of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Ozone > The Montreal Protocol has slowed and reversed the accumulation of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) in the stratosphere. • (Effective stratospheric chlorine is the weighted sum of chlorine and bromine gases in the stratosphere.) UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006

25. CFC Connection • 1973 - James Lovelock observed CFCs everywhere • 1974 - Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that CFCs could reach the stratosphere, decompose, release chlorine atoms, become a catalytic chain reaction; with a single chlorine atom would destroy as many as 100,000 molecules of ozone. • “If industry continued to release a million tons of CFCs into the atmosphere each year, atmospheric ozone would eventually drop by 7 to 13 percent.”

26. Antarctic Ozone Hole Discovery • 1984 Shigeru Chubachi - Japanese Meteorological Research Institute - quietly reports Antarctic ozone depletion • 1985: Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone layer: further research, but no steps for curbing CFCs • 1985: Assessment of the state of the ozone layer • 1985: Joseph Farman, B.G. Gardiner, and J.D. Shanklin – British Antarctic Survey-- loudly report discovery of the ozone hole

27. Montreal Protocol 1987 • 1987: Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment’s “smoking gun” data to prove link of CFCs to ozone depletion • September 16, 1987: 24 Governments agreed on the Montreal Protocol • Only mild control measures in first Protocol so that all countries could come aboard • Article 6 of the Protocol agreed periodic scientific, technological and economic assessment, Protocol will be revised based assessment • 1988: Scientific, Environmental, Technology, and Economic Assessments were initiated