Acknowledgements

1. The effects of global weather events on local anadromous fish dynamics: Tambora and the “Year Without a Summer” William B. Leavenworth, Karen E. Alexander, Theodore Willis, Carolyn Hall, Emily Klein, Benjamin Carr, and Adrian Jordaan

2. Acknowledgements • Funding Provided by • New Hampshire Sea Grant • Mia Tegner Foundation • National Science Foundation • NOAA • The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation • The Richard Lounsbery Foundation • Lenfest Ocean Program of the Pew Charitable Trust • History of Marine Animal Populations (HMAP) Programfunded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation • Boston University Marine Program • Logistical Support • Massachusetts State Archives • Maine State Archives • Boston Public Library • Co-Authors • William B. Leavenworth • Karen E. Alexander • Theodore Willis • Carolyn Hall • Emily Klein • Adrian Jordaan

3. “Forgetting We Remembered We Forgot”: Fighting the Shifting BaselineWaldman Running Silver Population trajectories are set by interactions between society, economics and ecology in an endless socio-economic system Historical Ecologyis a tool for discovering past lessons that will help us better manage ecosystems of the future Gordian Knot

4. Massachusetts Fish Inspector Reports Required that all exported pickled or smoked fish inspected in their town of origin be reported to the MA Secretary of State Created an 83 yr record for MA, 16 yr for ME (1820)

5. Penobscot River Kennebec River St. Croix (Cobscook Bay) • Data collated by watershed but available by town • 1804-1820 in ME • 1804-1830 in MA Portland (Casco Bay) Cape Cod to Cape Anne Cape Anne North Warnicke’s Map of Maine, 1814

6. Fish exports from fledgling America • Summarizes export fishery only • More of an index than accounting of harvest • Vulnerable to supply, demand and supply chain interruption • 50% or more of harvest was used locally

7. Fish exports from fledgling America • Pelagics = mackerel and herring (majority mackerel) • Anadromous = alewife, salmon, shad (majority alewife) 1816?

8. How did climate and socio-political change combine to produce the earliest documented collapse in North American anadromous fisheries?

9. Climate Upheaval • Dalton Minimum • Low sunspot cycle from 1790s to 1820s = lower global annual temperatures

10. Climate Upheaval cont. Tambora Eruption • 5 day eruption ending on April 10, 1815; largest ever recorded • Blew over 1000 m of mountain + ash and volcanic gasses 43km into the stratosphere • Cooled the northern hemisphere by an average 0.7°C in 1815 • Widely accepted as the cause of foul weather and famine around the North Atlantic in 1816 (“Year without a summer”)

11. Climate Upheaval cont. Tambora Eruption • 5 day eruption ending on April 10, 1815; largest ever recorded • Blew over 1000 m of mountain + ash and volcanic gasses 43km into the stratosphere • Cooled the northern hemisphere by an average 0.7°C in 1815 • Widely accepted as the cause of foul weather and famine around the North Atlantic in 1816 (“Year without a summer”) ~12,000 died in eruption, 37,825 displaced, 36,275 refugees Sigurdsson & Carey 1992

12. Climate Upheaval cont. Tambora Eruption • 5 day eruption ending on April 10, 1815; largest ever recorded • Blew over 1000m of mountain + ash and volcanic gasses 43km into the stratosphere • Cooled the northern hemisphere by 0.7°C in 1815 • Widely accepted as the cause of foul weather and famine around the North Atlantic in 1816 (“Year without a summer”) ~12,000 died in eruption, 37,825 displaced, 36,275 refugees Sigurdsson & Carey 1992

13. No. Growing Days Southern ME Baron 1992 1816: Mother Nature pulls a string, hard:cold & drought…. Frost as far south as Trenton, NJ on May 15, Jun 5 – 10, Aug 22, Sep 28 Summer drought concurrent with record cold – lowest summer rainfall between 1814 and 1840 Produced the shortest growing season in 50 years in southern ME, southern NH and eastern MA

14. Socio-economic systems pulls back… $40/ bushel in 2012 dollars • Food shortages and famine in New England, Britain, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, France from fall 1816 to spring 1817 • In New England commodity prices spiked, livestock flooded market Stomel and Stomel 1983

15. Anadromous crash and market replacement: MA data • We posit that poor weather affected anadromous fish and farm alike • Lethal thermal limit for alewife is 3°C; 3-5 years at sea • 1811 & 1812: Near record exports • 1816: Poor anadromous reproduction on account of freezing weather • 1817: Heavy harvest for local use and export • 1820 & 1821: record low recruitment to export fishery from 1816 & 1817 reproduction 1 2 1815 Tambora War Embargo 2 1

16. Tambora reshaped America…. • 1816 & 1817 were peak years of emigration from New England • Entire towns banded together into corporations and moved to Indiana and Ohio • Young men flooded fishing and whaling ports; women started to turn to factory work • Starvation related to 1816 ultimately resulted in the Penobscot Indians giving up almost all of their lands • River fisheries had limits, even without dams obstructing habitat • As an international market, river fisheries lost cache • Made way in people’s minds for dams and industrialization

18. What did Tambora teach us about climate change and Solar Radiation Management through geoengineering? • Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: The injection of sulphate aerosols into the lower stratosphere to cool the climate • Seeks to mimic the effect of large volcanic eruptions • Claimed to be the most affordable, effective and timely strategy to combat climate change • Carries moral/ global hazard and does not deal with the underlying causes of climate change • SAI is not likely to stabilize global temperatures, slow sea-level rise AND maintain regional precipitation Hulme 2012 • Tamboraaffected countries, economies and ecologies over 12,000 km away “Sunset” 1883 after Krakatoa, by: JMW Turner

19. Geoengineering – what do we already know? • Solar Radiation Management • Statospheric Aerosol Injection • Claimed to be the most affordable, effective and timely strategy • SAI is about limiting global climate deterioration linked to other large scale human changes to the environment – “climate remediation” • In many cases research leads unreflectively to development and ultimately deployment • Advocated by a small cadre of western scientists • Few people have heard of and half as many understand geoengineering – support of scientific research is based on framing a “climate emergency” into the question • Carries moral/ global hazard and does not deal with the underlying causes of climate change • “Fundamentally new international rules, observing systems and enforcement will be needed….” • Potential for increased ozone depletion • Not likely to stabilize global temperature, slow sea-level rise AND maintain regional precipitation • The injection of sulphate aerosols into the lower stratosphere to cool the climate seeks to mimic the effect of large volcanic eruptions

20. Fish exports declined:Low Demand? • Should have been hi demand in 1817 • for local use • to relieve famine in US cities • to relieve famine in European • Embargo and War were demand side impediments that were quickly recovered • Fish waiting on docks for boats • Export conditions (shipping) were good in 1817,1818 and 1819 • Sequential cold weather may have contributed to low exports • Small pelagics (i.e., mackerel filled the market void) Embargo? Tambora? War?

23. 1816: Weather in contextIt’s all about timing…markets….

24. Southern ME

25. Changes in Fishing when Considering Demographics

29. 1816: Weather in context

30. 1816: Weather in contextIt’s all about timing…drought….

32. Year Without a Summer Jefferson Embargo

33. War of 1812 Tambora Eruption Jefferson Embargo Year Without a Summer

35. War of 1812 Tambora Eruption Year Without a Summer Jefferson Embargo Full trade with Great Britain

36. War of 1812 Tambora Eruption Year Without a Summer Jefferson Embargo Full trade with Great Britain

39. Southern ME Southern NH Eastern Mass