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We are not in a climate crisis! By Bill Gray

We are not in a climate crisis! By Bill Gray. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. -- Charles Mackay. Fcst. 2020. 2040. CO 2 ’s Very Small Relative Energy Contribution. W/m 2.

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We are not in a climate crisis! By Bill Gray

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  1. We are not in a climate crisis! By Bill Gray

  2. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. -- Charles Mackay

  3. Fcst. 2020 2040

  4. CO2’s Very Small Relative Energy Contribution

  5. W/m2 SOLAR LONGWAVE ∆CO2 W/m2 ALBEDO DAILY 1975- 2008 Since 1850 Late 21st Century

  6. ENERGY INVOLVED (Watts/m2) Daily water vapor replacementrate is over a million times faster than the rate of CO2 buildup ATMOSPHERIC CONDENSATION SFC EVAPORATION 2008 SFC RAINFALL CO2 (double) ATM. EVAP CO2 150 yrs 250 yrs

  7. Popular Textbook ∆ Temperature from CO2 being doubled by the end of the 21st century

  8. What is the cause of the warming hysteria?

  9. The Ascendancy of the Religion of Numerical Modeling and the loss of Meteorological Judgment and Reality.

  10. NUMBERS VIRTUAL WORLD FORECASTERS REAL WORLD FORECASTERS

  11. ORACLE AT DELPHI Climate Model Department GOD We prostrate ourselves before our all knowing GOD. We humbly accept your GLOBAL WARMING judgement.

  12. ORACLE AT DELPHI Climate Model Department GCM Computer GOD i.e. - GOD We prostrate ourselves before our all knowing GOD. We humbly accept your GLOBAL WARMING judgement.

  13. OTHER DIFFICULTIES • Ocean Circulation • Viscosity • Numeric • Etc., etc., etc. • Can’t Forecast

  14. Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.” • (Nikola Tesla, inventor and electrical engineer, 1934).

  15. Butterflies World of Chaos NO CULTURE t = 0 Real World Modelers Virtual World Modelers 0 15 days 50 yrs 100 yrs

  16. CLIMATE COMPLICATION OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE THERMAL INERTIA OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

  17. GLOBAL DIMMING CHANGES THERMO-HALINE CIRCULATION GREENLAND ICE SHEET ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND RAIN DISTRIBUTION OCEAN & ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS (ANNULAR MODES, GYRES, ENSO) METHANE HYDRATES IN PERMAFROST AND OCEANS CLIMATE COMPLICATION GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL EXTREME EVENTS - INCLUDING FLOODS, DROUGHT, FIRE, HURRICANES & STORM SURGES BIOMASS FEEDBACKS PERMAFROST MELTING From – A. Berrie Pittock (22 August 2006, EOS Article) “Are Scientists Understanding Climate Change?”

  18. PRIMARY DIFFICULTIES • System too Complex to be modeled • Water-vapor Feedback Wrong • Deep Full-Ocean Circulation not yet accurately modeled

  19. OTHER DIFFICULTIES • Ocean Circulation • Viscosity • Numeric • Etc., etc., etc. • Can’t Forecast

  20. Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.” • (Nikola Tesla, inventor and electrical engineer, 1934).

  21. AGW Modeling Gravy Train

  22. HANSFORD WHOI GISS GFDL LIVERMORE NCAR NASA SCRIPPS LAM HUNTSVILLE UNIVERSITIES GOVT. LABS

  23. NUMERICAL MODELING GROUPS (31)

  24. Funding Publication R R R Reality Barrier R R Reality R R Public Downward

  25. Basic Error in Modeling Physical Assumption Water Vapor Increase

  26. FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE (1979) STUDY (The Charney Report) • Doubling CO2 will lead to global ∆T change of 1.5-4.5oC (~3oC) • Due to positive water vapor feedback ∆T∆ moisturereduced OLR

  27. BEING A PRISONER OF THE CLAUSIUS-CLAPEYRON MYTH i.e. – constant RH, increase q CC WATER VAPOR (q) Obs. ΔΤ

  28. 400 mb Specific Humidity Yearly Average Standardized Anomalies for 90oN-90oS, 0-360

  29. 30oN-30oS; 0-360o 1984-88 P.W. (440-550 mb) ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) P.W. (Total) ∆ Ave. 16 Years 2000-04 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

  30. q (g/kg) YEAR

  31. OLR OLR 191 W/m2 W/m2 WET 198 W/m2 191 198 H2O vapor DRY 0.3 g/cm2 WARM 24 0.3 g/cm2 ht H2O vapor COLD T = 241oK ht T = 243oK 241o 243o COLD WARM Lapse-Rate TEMP.

  32. HANSEN – early model Changes for a doubling of CO2 + 50% + 6% Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Δq ΔRH Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)

  33. JAMES HANSEN

  34. Jun-Jul-Aug 100 16 km 300 10 km 4 Height 500 5 km Pressure (mb) 4.1 3 700 3 km 3 900 1 km Dec-Jan-Feb 100 16 km 300 10 km 4 5 Pressure (mb) 500 3 Height 5 km 700 3 km 900 1 km UK Met. Service

  35. -1 0 1 2 Height Pressure (mb) 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 Latitude Jun-Jul-Aug -1 0 0 1 1 Pressure (mb) 2 2 Height 3 4 3 3 5 NCAR Dec-Jan-Feb Latitude

  36. 2 Pressure (mb) 3 Height (km) 4 4 3 GFDL – ANNUAL AVERAGE

  37. WARM COLD (from Douglass et al. 2007)

  38. OLR = 3 w RH = 70% 0 Vertical Motion (w) GRID SPACE OLR = 5 wd w Wu RH = 50%

  39. Water Vapor Correlation Coefficient

  40. WHAT GCM MODELS SAY FOR DOUBLING OF CO2 (neglect deep ocean circulation) SUN ∆(IR + Albedo) 2oC ∆IR 1oC MORE WATER VAPOR INCREASE LOWER ALBEDO + 3oC NET WARMING + Doubling CO2 GAS

  41. LIKELY REALITY FOR DOUBLING OF CO2 (neglect deep ocean circulation) SUN ∆(IR + Albedo) – 0.5oC ∆IR 1oC LESS WATER VAPOR INCREASE HIGHER ALBEDO + 0.5oC NET WARMING + Doubling CO2 GAS

  42. NEW GLOBAL DATA SETS 1950 Reanalysis Data 2007 1984 2004 ISCCP Data

  43. – 400 2008 382   .60 w/m2 1975 332 – 300 BACKGROUND (290) – 200 CO2 -ppm ∆ E ≈ 0.6 W/m2 ∆ T ≈ 0.14oC – 100 – 0 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028

  44. ENERGY CHANGES (W/m2) 30oN-30oS; 0-360o (2001-06) minus (1973-78) ~ 28 YEARS ∆ OLR ∆ Rain ∆ CO2 0.60 2.84 2.17

  45. ENERGY CHANGES (W/m2) 30oN-30oS; 0-360o (2000-04) minus (1984-88) ~ 16 YEARS ∆ OLR ∆ OLR + Albedo ∆ Rain ∆ CO2 1.62 0.57 3.47 2.06 0.71 ∆ Albedo

  46. Concentrated and Deeper Cumulus Convection Enhance OLR

  47. OLR 238 (W/m2) 234 230 226 Emission Level Sfc. Temp.

  48. Increase in Upper Level Water Vapor Significant Global Warming ~ 3oC Increased Surface Evaporation and Global Rainfall GCMs Decrease of OLR + Albedo to Space Less Increase in Upper Level Water Vapor Little Global Warming ~ 0.5oC Increased Surface Evaporation and Global Rainfall REALITY Increase of OLR + Albedo to Space

  49. What is the Primary Cause of Global Temperature Change?

  50. H H 3 1 2 Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

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