Planning for the Ecological Consequences of Climate Change in the Greater Yellowstone Area

1. Planning for the Ecological Consequences of Climate Change in the Greater Yellowstone Area Molly Cross, Ph.D. Wildlife Conservation Society mcross@WCS.org Greater Yellowstone Area Clean Air Partnership meeting November 3, 2009

2. Talk outline • Past and future climate changes in the GYA • Current and potential ecological responses • Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes

3. Talk outline • Past and future climate changes in the GYA • Current and potential ecological responses • Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes

4. Climate changes over last 100 years (source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR4 report 2007)

5. Historic changes in the GYA Trend in Annual Mean Temperature 1961-2006 (°F/yr) Temp. Trend (°F/yr) 0.11 0.07 0.04 0 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 (source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)

6. Historic changes in the GYA Trends in Seasonal Mean Temperatures 1961-2006 (°F/yr) Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Temp. Trend (°F/yr) 0.11 0.07 0.04 0 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Temp. Trend (°F/yr) 0.11 0.07 0.04 0 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 (source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)

7. Historic changes in the GYA Trend in Annual Precipitation 1961-2006 (mm/yr) Precip. Trend (mm/yr) (source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)

8. Historic changes in the GYA Trends in Seasonal Precipitation 1961-2006 (mm/yr) Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov (source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)

9. Future temperature changes From: S. Gray

10. Future precipitation changes Bradley (2009)

11. Future precipitation changes Bradley (2009)

12. Future changes for Western U.S. • Warmer temperatures  +3-7F by 2040 • Precipitation changes less certain – possible  in winter,  in summer • More frequent extreme events • Decreased extreme cold events

13. Talk outline • Past and future climate changes in the GYA • Current and potential ecological responses • Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes

14. Ecological responses Changing climate likely to influence: • Snow, ice and water • Timing of spring events • Disturbances • Vegetation • Wildlife

15. Snow, ice and water: Decreased snowpack Linear trend in April 1 snow water equivalent (1950-2000) Mote 2003

16. Snow, ice and water: Decreased snowpack Percent snow depth changes in March (2041-2070 compared to 1961-1990) Analysis by Plummer et al. 2006 in IPCC 2007 AR4 report

17. Snow, ice and water: Melting glaciers

18. Snow, ice and water: Melting glaciers

19. Snow, ice and water: Altered stream flows • Increased winter flows • Diminished summer and fall flows

20. Timing of spring: Earlier spring runoff J. Bailey Stewart et al. 2005

21. Timing of spring: Plant and animal phenology Mark D. Schwartz dirttime.ws

22. Disturbances: More frequent & severe wildfires Westerling et al. 2006

23. Disturbances: More pest outbreaks Jeff Hicke 2004

24. Changing vegetation: Treeline species Engelmann spruce Subalpine fir Whitebark pine Current Climate Increased Temperature + Precipitation ~43%  17% ~29%  5% ~12%  .02% Schrag et al (2008)

25. Changing vegetation: Plant functional types Unpublished research by Guy Pinjuv with Ron Neilson’s group at USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station – contact guy@ptarmiganforestry.com for additional details

26. Changing vegetation: Plant functional types G. Pinjuv unpublished data

27. Changing vegetation: Plant functional types G. Pinjuv unpublished data

28. Changing vegetation: Plant functional types G. Pinjuv unpublished data

29. Wildlife response: Adapt, move, go extinct?

30. Challenges facing natural resource management How to make applicable to my system? Where to begin? What to manage FOR? Uncertainty? Complexity? J. Kastner

31. Reframing management goals Increase RESISTANCE to change Promote RESILIENCE to change Enable ecosystems to RESPOND to change Adapted from Millar et al. 2007, Ecological Applications and USFS Climate Change Resource Center

32. Challenges facing natural resource management How to make applicable to my system? Where to begin? What to manage FOR? Uncertainty? Complexity? J. Kastner

33. Talk outline • Past and future climate changes in the GYA • Current and potential ecological responses • Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes

34. Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation working group • CONVENED BY: • PARTICIPANTS: Academic, government agency and conservation NGO researchers • GOAL: Develop a participatory and iterative framework for making place-based climate change-informed management decisions.

35. Climate Change Adaptation Framework PLAN EVALUATE AND LEARN re-evaluate strategies as needed ADJUST DO Adapted from www.cmar.csiro.au/research/mse/

36. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal TARGET: Species Ecological process Ecosystem Cross et al. in prep.

37. Climate Change Adaptation Framework CLIMATE DRIVERS TARGET SPECIES / SYSTEM ECOLOGICAL DRIVERS SOCIO- ECONOMIC DRIVERS Select conservation target and Define management goal CONCEPTUAL MODEL Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios Cross et al. in prep.

38. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios From Peterson et al. 2004 Cross et al. in prep.

39. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios Identify intervention points and management actions Cross et al. in prep.

40. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios Revisit target / goal? Identify intervention points and management actions Cross et al. in prep.

41. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios Revisit target / goal? Identify intervention points and management actions Evaluate actions Cross et al. in prep.

42. Climate Change Adaptation Framework Select conservation target and Define management goal Monitor and evaluate action effectiveness Build conceptual model Assess climate change impacts Identify future climate scenarios Implement action plan Revisit target / goal? Identify information needs Identify intervention points and management actions Develop action plan Evaluate actions Cross et al. in prep.

43. Next steps: Testing the framework Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Northern U.S. Rockies Ecological processes River flows Species Grizzly bears Wolverine Ecosystems Yellowstone River Sagebrush steppe

44. A few summary points • Climate changes are already influencing hydrological and ecological systems • We can anticipate future changes, but there remains uncertainty • However, we already have enough information to begin proactive planning for climate change

45. Thanks to collaborators + funders Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation Working Group: G. Tabor (Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Y2Y) E. Fleishman (UC-Santa Barbara) E. Zavaleta (UC-Santa Cruz) G. Hayward (USFS) S. Shafer (USGS) B. Petersen (UC-Santa Cruz) C. Enquist (TNC) J. Lawler (Univ. of Washington) M. Brooks (Southern Illinois University) L. Graumlich (Univ. of Arizona) C. Groves (TNC) L. Hansen (EcoAdapt) L. Hannah (Conservation International) D. Scott (University of Waterloo) J. Malcolm (Univ. of Toronto) R. Shaw (TNC) D. Bachelet (Oregon State Univ., USFS) M. Koopman (NCCSP) J. Weaver (WCS) Funders: Kendall Foundation Marisla Foundation Surdna Foundation Turner Foundation Hewlett Foundation Weeden Foundation

46. Thank You!! Thank you!! Question, comments, suggestions?? Questions? Comments? B. Karesh, WCS

47. Testing the framework Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Northern U.S. Rockies Ecological processes River flows Species Grizzly bears Wolverine Ecosystems Yellowstone River Sagebrush steppe

48. Select target and define management goal Yellowstone River flows (ecological process) To maintain Yellowstone cutthroat trout

49. Build conceptual model agricultural practices forest management wildfire withdrawals (agri., urban) flood plain condition upland forest type/structure urban growth impervious surfaces temperature + precipitation beaver riparian cover snowpack groundwater grazing practices Yellowstone River flows quantity, temperature, timing

50. Initial climate scenario: Warmer & drier agricultural practices forest management wildfire withdrawals (agri., urban) ∆ flood plain condition upland forest type/structure urban growth ? + ∆ Lower baseflows Warmer water temps Earlier spring peak impervious surfaces - warmer & drier climate - - -? ? beaver riparian cover snowpack -? groundwater grazing practices -