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Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. Caveat: No analogs future. Williams & Jackson, 2007. Major impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Distribution & abundance shifts (terrestrial, aquatic, marine) Phenology shifts (terrestrial, aquatic, marine)

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Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

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  1. Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

  2. Caveat: No analogs future Williams & Jackson, 2007

  3. Major impacts of climate change on ecosystems • Distribution & abundance shifts (terrestrial, aquatic, marine) • Phenology shifts (terrestrial, aquatic, marine) • Direct impacts of temperature (& acidity) on species (mainly aquatic & marine)

  4. How are distributions shifting? Parmesan & Yohe, 2003

  5. How are distributions shifting? • Movement poleward & upward • 80% of 1500 studies (before 2003) recorded shifts in these directions (Root et al., 2003) • “polar” species decline in abundance, “temperate” species increase in abundance (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)

  6. Updated estimates of range shifts • As of a 2011 meta-analysis: • Movement poleward at 16.9 km/decade • Movement upward at • 11 m/decade • 2-3 times faster than 2003 estimates Chen et al., 2011

  7. Range Shifts in Yosemite Moritz et al., 2008

  8. Projected Kudzu Invasion

  9. Projected range shifts Kueppers et al., 2005

  10. Plant Range Shifts in California Kelly & Goulden 2008

  11. Plant Range Shifts in California Breshears et al., 2008

  12. Range shifts could respond to precipitation more than temperature Species range shifts to lower elevations correlates with maintaining water balance Crimmins et al., 2011

  13. Abundance Declines in Concord Species whose flowering times do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance Flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species Climate change may decrease abundance of whole orders of species Willis et al., 2008

  14. Abundance Declines in Concord Willis et al., 2010

  15. Range Shifts and Fish Traits Perry et al, 2005

  16. Distribution & Abundance Shifts • A lot of the effects of climate change will be felt locally as community assemblages shift (especially along edges of biomes or ecosystems) • Extinctions are a primary concern, but local extirpations are likely to create greater ecological consequences

  17. Phenology Shifts with Climate Change Phenology: Seasonal biological events

  18. Phenology influences lots of processes

  19. Evidence of phenology shifts Parmesan & Yohe, 2003

  20. Evidence of phenology shifts (Root et al., 2003)

  21. Evidence of phenology shifts Advancing >3 days/decade Advancing 0-3 days/decade No significant change Cloned lilac network

  22. Evidence of phenology shifts Badeck et al., 2004

  23. Evidence of phenology shifts Date of egg laying for Great Reed Warbler

  24. Evidence of phenology shifts in Mass Miller-Rushing et al., 2006

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