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Indian coal power and climate: Turning a challenge into opportunity?

Indian coal power and climate: Turning a challenge into opportunity?. Ambuj Sagar Chaturvedi Prof. of Policy Studies IIT Delhi. Ananth Chikkatur Senior Associate ICF International * Washington DC. IRADe Energy and Climate Summit Feb 3, 2009.

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Indian coal power and climate: Turning a challenge into opportunity?

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  1. Indian coal power and climate: Turning a challenge into opportunity? Ambuj Sagar Chaturvedi Prof. of Policy Studies IIT Delhi Ananth Chikkatur Senior Associate ICF International* Washington DC IRADe Energy and Climate Summit Feb 3, 2009 * Views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of ICF International

  2. Coal power in India – key issues • Capacity addition • Coal availability • Climate concerns • Technology availability • Way(s) forward?

  3. Capacity addition • India has low per-capita electricity consumption • India: 500kW/capita; World average: 2660kW/capita; OECD: 8380kW/capita (2006 data) • Significant growth projected for the upcoming decades; will need large capacity additions • 2005-06: total installed capacity 144 GW; generation ~ 700 TWh • 2030-31: capacity 800-1000GW; generation 3600 – 4500 TWh • Coal-based power expected to dominate • 2030: 1-2 billion tons (BT) for power sector alone • Domestic capability for rapid capacity addition?

  4. Source: Chikkatur and Sagar (2007)

  5. Coal availability • Uncertain extractable reserves (56-71 BT) • Total reserves ~ 248 BT, but all cannot be extracted • Under BAU: Coal needed for power plants (existing and projected until 2030) over a plant’s lifetime (~50 years) > estimated current coal reserves • Worsening coal quality • Increasing socio-environmental concerns • Land acquisition and R&R issues need to be resolved • Rising demand for imports • Imports currently ~6% of consumption • 2031-32: 11-45% of total annual coal consumption • Coal imports increasingly part of India’s energy future

  6. Source: Modeling by Chikkatur (2007)

  7. Climate constraints 2005 data (CAIT) India 4th highest annual CO2 emissions. But low per-capita emissions Global CO2 Concentrations: 384 ppm  Getting closer to “dangerous” human interference Increasing pressure to take global action / commitments Increasing pressure on India to demonstrate ‘action’

  8. Technology availability • Future technology pathways need to consider • Efficiency improvement & air pollution mitigation • Carbon emissions constraints • Supercritical PC • -- Broadly-deployed technology globally; India already moving in this direction • -- Needs indigenization; adaptation to Indian coals • Ultra-supercritical PC • -- Commercial technology • -- Need to establish feasibility under Indian conditions • -- Materials development, etc.

  9. Technology availability (contd.) • IGCC • -- Multiple demonstration projects globally but pre-commercial • -- Demonstrated technologies only compatible with low-ash coals (entrained-flow gasifiers) • -- Fluidized-bed and moving-bed gasification possibilities for Indian coals BUT need significant development • Carbon Capture and Sequestration • -- No large-scale demonstration • -- Expensive; reduces capacity & efficiency • -- Capture with IGCC currently more economic than with PC Large RD&D effort needed for high-efficiency/carbon capture technologies (USC and IGCC) based on Indian coal Commercial deployment could be 10-15 years away!!

  10. India coal power – a way forward • (Making lemonades out of lemons…) • A “clean-coal” deal • -- Annex-I countries to provide advanced coal-power technologies (USC, IGCC) based on imported coals • -- ‘Transformational’ technologies (beyond BAU) • -- Performance contracts • -- Long-term coal-supply contracts • -- Commit to CCS only after significant international commercial experience (for example, after at least 10 CCS plants deployed globally, 5 yrs of CCS operation) • -- Incremental costs borne by Annex-I countries

  11. India coal power – a way forward (contd.) • Advantages for India • -- Help meet the country’s power demand • -- Reduce technology risks • -- “Prove” viability of cleaner-coal technologies in India • -- Reduce pressure in climate talks • -- Shifts pressure to Annex-I countries for proving CCS (links Indian deployment to global CCS deployment) • -- “Conserve” Indian coal and secure supplies of imported coal • -- Incremental costs borne by Annex-I countries • -- Strengthen domestic technical capabilities

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