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Value of Meteorological Information for Energy Revolution in Germany

This study examines the value of meteorological products and services for the energy revolution in Germany, focusing on the forest fire warning index. The study is being conducted by adelphi research GmbH and will last 12-15 months.

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Value of Meteorological Information for Energy Revolution in Germany

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  1. SEB-studies in Germany Thomas Schuhmacher, DWD

  2. Content • Current stage of proceeding of DWD SEB-study on the value of meteorological information for the energy revolution • valuation of forest fire warning index in Germany SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  3. DWD SEB-study Basic information Topic: the value of meteorological products and services for the energy revolution Special tasks:research on the value chain comparison of products (DWD and private providers) Structure:Topic 1: formulation of a conecpt note Topic 2: realization of the study Length: 12 -15 month SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  4. DWD SEB-study Currentstageofproceeding • Contractforrealisationofthestudyisawardedto a German companynamedadelphiresearch GmbH (www.adelphi.de) • adelphiis a think tank for policy analysis and strategy consulting • adelphi offers solutions and services regarding global environment and development challenges for policy, business, and civil society communities. • kick-off meeting: July 13 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  5. Value of forest fire danger index Basic information on forest fires in Germany • average number of forest fires per year: 1160 • average area burned per year: 740 ha • reasons for forest fires 22 % fire raising 24 % negligence 9 % other 4 % natural 41 % unknown SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  6. Value of forest fire danger index Basic information on forest fire danger index • from March to October forest fire danger forecasts (4 days) for Germany • index from 1 (=very little danger) to 5 (=very high danger) SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  7. Value of forest fire danger index Socioeconomic benefits of forest fire danger index customers actions benefits SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  8. Value of forest fire danger index damage caused by forest fires in Germany = value of the loss of wood + reforestation costs (9.000 €/ha) + extinguishing costs (~ 3.000 €/ha) (+ loss of (bio-)diversity) (+ risk of death) SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  9. Value of forest fire danger index Damage caused by forest fires in Germany (2009-2013) SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  10. Value of forest fire danger index Application: Value of warning system in Bavaria SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  11. Value of forest fire danger index Method 1: naturalexperiment • estimation of damage with and without forest fire warning system (=benefit) • damage with warning system (2011): 1.200.000 € • estimation that damage without warning system depends on additional forest burned without control flights (2011): SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  12. Value of forest fire danger index Method 1: naturalexperiment • costs (2011): • Bavarian forest authorities (+ control flights): 117.000 € • German Meteorological Office: ~ 3.000 € • total costs: ~ 120.000 € SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  13. Value of forest fire danger index Method 2: cost-lossapproach • costs of control flights in Bavaria = 290 €/flight • control flights with an forest fire danger index 4 or 5 • additional damage without control flights: 0,4 hectares (~10.550 €) • benefits of control flights in 2011 for Bavaria ~ 50.000 € Control flights/forest fires in 2011: Expenses (€): SEB Workshop – 06/2015

  14. Contact Diplom-Volkswirt Thomas Schuhmacher Deutscher Wetterdienst Regionale Messnetzgruppe München Helene-Weber-Allee 21 80637 München mail: thomas.schuhmacher@dwd.de fon: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9240 fax: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9292 SEB Workshop – 06/2015

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