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Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic vision

Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic vision. Kristian Petrick Managing Director Factor CO 2 Ennova Barcelona, September 2010 www.factorCO2.com. Introduction. With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects.

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Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic vision

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  1. Europe 100% renewable in 2050A logical explanationfor a realistic vision Kristian PetrickManaging Director Factor CO2 EnnovaBarcelona, September 2010www.factorCO2.com

  2. Introduction With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects „I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon andreturning him safely to the Earth." John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961

  3. Agenda What is required to be convinced of a vision?– An open mind to follow logical arguments Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

  4. Europe 1.a Concept of Energy Autonomy Animated slide Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, ... Regions / Countries Cities, Industries Appliances: Washing machines, motors, ... Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, .... Homes and buildings Apartment buildings, vehicles, ... Wind parks, solar plants, geothermal, wave power, … Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, ... Villages and municipalities

  5. 1.b Examples: Devices Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid Existing… Probably soon… Solar-mobile phones Solar-calculators Solar-MP3 Player Designed by Albert Bellot Solar-Notebooks

  6. Gas / Oil South South 1.b Examples: Appliances and buildings Accept higher efficiency standards, generate your own energy – and show your pride with convincing words Today … Future … New appliances only with highest standards allowed „Power Plus House“ Avoid misleading / unattractive terms like „Passive House“ or „Zero Energy House“

  7. Vehicles Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing Until now … From now on … 3-liter Porsche 3-liter Lupo E-Car Think E-Mini

  8. 1.b Examples: Industry Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe Today … Maybe soon … Aluminium plant with hydro power, Norway Aluminium plant with solar power, Spain Aluminium plant with biomass power, Netherlands Aluminium plant with wind and ocean power, UK

  9. Renewable generation Self-sufficient municipality Fossil/nuclear power plant Coal Uranium Gas Oil Oil Gas Municipalities and regions Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby Europe today … Europe in 2050 …

  10. 1.c Energy Outlook Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently– and the vision will come true automatically Energy Use • Energy Conservation / Savings • Energy Efficiency • Intelligent („passive“) use of energy 100% „Active“ use of energy Fossil and nuclear energies Renewable energies Today 2050 Small or easy applications/installations Complex industries/cities

  11. Agenda So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

  12. 2.a Cost curves Accept that the times of cheap energy are over – and realize that only renewables can become cheaper • Fossil/nuclear energies • Depletion • Internalization of emissions • Security of supply • Renewable energies • Economies of scale • Technical improvements Energy costs Affordable for... developed countries Countries in transition developing countries Today Time (depending on technology and location)

  13. 2.b Business- vs. socio-economic costs Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean Fossil economy Renewable economy State State Socio economics taxes subsidies / support schemes € € taxes subsidies / support schemes Damages € € € kWh kWh Business economics € € € Equipment & financing Equipment & financing Fossil Fuels & security of supply

  14. Agenda If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

  15. 3.a Urgency xxBe aware that we have to get on the right track now– and not waste time and money anymore Use of energy Savings, eficiency and intelligent use Fossil & nuclear Renewables 2009 2015 2050 < 80 months Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide • We need a convincing vision to • implement renewables faster • avoid investments in old technologies • avoid unnecessary emissions • get innovative ideas of more people • create optimism

  16. 3.b Stakeholder Analysis Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies Interests Stakeholders Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables • Deciders / Multipliers: • Politicians • Managers / Entrepreneurs • Private „Budget Holders“ Target Group • „Normal“ Population: • Private citizens • Employees / Workforce • Administration European Population

  17. Serious humor Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it “Save the hand axe industry!” “The metal workers destroy our workplaces” “Union Stone and Axe: Maintain the subsidies” “Save us” Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag

  18. 3.c Recommendations Act consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today • Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change • Buy smart(= considering energy) • Switch / turn off what you don‘t use Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians & „normal“ citizens & employees / workforce & administration staff • Invest smart(= considering energy) • Improve & support renewable technologies • Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs • Implement consistent policies quickly • Provide infrastructure and support • Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities

  19. A European Vision Get inspired by a fascinating vision– for yourself, our children, nature and mankind „We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal,before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies andliving in a sustainable way on Earth." The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union, the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2010

  20. Europe 100% renewable in 2050 Conclusion “Europe 100% renewable in 2050” is a realistic vision – just spread the word! Thank you for your attention! Contact: Kristian Petrick Factor CO2 Ennova +34 93 272 38 48 kpetrick@factorCO2.com

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