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Evidence for Effective Food Security Decisions

Evidence for Effective Food Security Decisions. John Scicchitano USAID/Food For Peace FEWS NET Program Manager. Horn of Africa Vegetation Feb 2012 vs. Feb 2011. Geography of food insecurity. Food Security Conditions Somalia March 2012. Magnitude of food insecurity.

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Evidence for Effective Food Security Decisions

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  1. Evidence for Effective Food Security Decisions John Scicchitano USAID/Food For Peace FEWS NET Program Manager Horn of Africa Vegetation Feb 2012 vs. Feb 2011

  2. Geography of food insecurity Food Security Conditions Somalia March 2012

  3. Magnitude of food insecurity Ethiopia 2012 Beneficiary Estimates1,2 1 6-month equivalent 2 Reflects local population needs only. Does not include refugee needs. ________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 3

  4. Severity of food insecurity Food Security Conditions Oct-Dec 2011

  5. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

  6. Timing of food insecurity Seasonal Context Somalia

  7. Causes of food insecurity

  8. Who is FEWS NET? 27 year-old activity National, Regional, International institutions Kimetrica

  9. Where is FEWS NET? 24 FEWS NET offices 18 Africa - National 3 Africa - Regional 1 Haiti 1 Guatemala 1 Afghanistan Non-presence coverage of others Nationality of FEWS Field Representatives American = 0 African = 24 Guatemalan = 1 Afghani = 1 Haitian = 1

  10. A fundemental focus on markets Monitoring prices Understanding how markets function

  11. Markets and Trade Structure and Conduct of Markets

  12. Satellite Products Vegetation Indices (NDVI) Crop water requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) Multiple-source daily rainfall estimation (RFE)

  13. www.fews.net www.fews.net www.fews.net

  14. Climate Change: Food Security impacts FEWS analyzes historical patterns of change in weather to inform today’s adaptation planning.

  15. How many people? www.populationexplorer.com

  16. 4 3 C A 1 B Timor l’Este 2 A, B, C = Existing AgMet monitoring focus 1-4 = possible AgMet monitoring windows New Agro-Meteorological Monitoring Windows

  17. Horn of Africa - context Excellent Oct-Dec 2011 rains Source: FEWS NET/NOAA __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

  18. Mar-May 12 rainfall forecasts __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

  19. Importance of Mar-May rains Average March-May rainfall as a percentage of average annual rainfall Source: FEWS NET/NOAA/USGS __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

  20. Evolution of Mar-May rains Precipitation Anomaly: 1 Feb – 7 May

  21. Current Conditions Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

  22. www.fews.net John Scicchitano jscicchitano@usaid.gov

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