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Humboldt County Economy 2007

Humboldt County Economy 2007. Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007. Humboldt County Economy 2007. By Erick Eschker Department of Economics Humboldt State University Humboldt Economic Index www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm. Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors.

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Humboldt County Economy 2007

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  1. Humboldt County Economy2007 Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007

  2. Humboldt County Economy2007 By Erick Eschker Department of Economics Humboldt State University Humboldt Economic Index www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm

  3. Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

  4. Six Sectors and Composite • Energy • Lumber-based manufacturing • Employment • Hospitality • Retail • Housing • Composite

  5. Energy • Not much has changed in two years

  6. Lumber Manufacturing • Structural Decline but high variability The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

  7. Employment • Very little change in overall employment • Unemployment rate has risen recently

  8. Hospitality • Slight upward trend The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

  9. Retail • Based on our own survey (we’re always looking for more data providers!) The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

  10. Housing • New Real Estate Page on the Index • Significant sales drop since summer 2005 • 40% drop July-Sept (record drop) • Sales now at 1997 levels

  11. Housing

  12. House Price to Rent Ratio • Rose very quickly starting in 2003

  13. Composite • Decline since May • Housing and Manufacturing the main reason

  14. Forecast • We don’t do forecasts • Two local Leading Indicators show slowing

  15. Forecast • This is an important time • Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation? • Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22 • Uncertainty: • Financial Markets • Housing • Energy Prices • Consumer Spending

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