The Ecological Implications of Climate Change (and what we can do)

1. The Ecological Implications of Climate Change (and what we can do) U3A group 5 June 2011 Prof Ray Wills Chief Executive Officer Sustainable Energy Association of Australia. Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia

2. A changing climate for business and the community • The science is in, the globe is warming, and we must both mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly prepare for adaptation to climate change. • A raft of immediately accessible and affordable solutions to reduce greenhouse emissions and provide alternative sources of energy are available today, and bring more and more business opportunity. • Spatial technology will be a key part of getting it right!

3. Greenhouse and global warming • Greenhouse theory is not new • Basis first proposed by in 1824 • Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” - average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C • Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s • UN and IMO lead debate late 1979 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988 • Rio 1992 Earth Summit, Kyoto 1997 … • Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level. • The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis- it is empirically and theoretically well-established.

4. Drivers of climate change

5. Instrumental record - temperature

6. Instrumental record - temperature

7. Five-Year Av. Global Temp Anomalies from 1880 to 2010 • Image deleted to reduce file size – see ref at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

8. History of world temperature

9. Evidence of global warming

10. Climate and sea level changes http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_level.html

11. About WA

12. About Australia • Warming of 1.0°C will move climate belts ~ 150 km south. • Regional temperature change of 2 °C will serious impact on most life forms (CSIRO forecast 5 °C for SW WA by 2070). Changes by 2040

13. About WA • Climate change is arguably the most important key threatening process to all biota. • Biota in narrow climatic bands are likely to suffer changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance of a range of species. • Impacts both direct - climate affecting plant species establishment and persistence, and indirect - climate impacting bushfire regimes or increased summer rainfall increasing the spread of dieback. • Rise of 2ºC results in loss of 66% of Dryandra species, 41% of Australian eucalyptus species (including many WA species), and 100% of Acacia species. • Similar studies for fauna - all frog and mammal species

14. About WA • If global warming and drying of the south coast in WA sees temperature increases > 2° C combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm many species of Proteaceae in WA's SW will be lost. • Eucalypts and Acacia too. • Likely the iconic Banksia and Dryandra will die out. • So too the animals that live on them.

15. About WA • Climate is key determinant for your garden - changes in climate will impact on what will grow.

16. About WA • Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes in climate will impact on crops and livestock. • Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures. • Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted • Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced. • Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion. • Climate is a key influence in grape selection. • Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. • WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium categories.

17. Sea level changes Mandurah at 1m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

18. Economic models and paradigms www.greenhouse.wa.gov.au/ documents/EGWAGO15.8.2005_000.pdf

19. About WA • Other WA impacts will be the same as around the world • Sea level rise and storm surge • Temperature – minimum rise faster than maximum • Changing rainfall and extreme storm events • Health and safety • Emergency response function • National security • Global warming will act as a ‘threat multiplier’ • International security

20. Copenhagen

21. Global impact • FlightSuite, NHAW, Technorama, NASA - world flight patterns over 24 hours • Image deleted to reduce file size – see ref at • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XBwjQsOEeg

22. The price of non-renewable

23. Global renewables 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011… • 2008 - world invested more in total on renewable energy ($155 billion) than on traditional energy ($140 billion) • Almost 50% of new generation built around the globe in 2009 was renewable energy - 80 GW of renewable power capacity built compared to 83 GW of fossil fuel plants • China almost half of 2009 total with 37 GW of renewables – China now world's leader in renewable energy. • Renewable sources in 2009 25% global electricity capacity1,230 GW out of 4,800 GW total (all sources, including coal, gas, nuclear) • In Australia renewable projects 24% - according to ABARE data • 2010 early report $240 billion investment in 2010 Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010, released on 15 July 2010United Nations Environment Programme / Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century

24. Global renewables 2009

25. Global renewables 2009

26. World clean energy Bloomberg-Liebreich.www.iea.org

27. World clean energy Bloomberg-Liebreich.www.iea.org

28. World clean energy Bloomberg-Liebreich.www.iea.org

29. World clean energy Bloomberg-Liebreich.www.iea.org

30. Cheaper solar pv

31. Renewable energy generation Biomass • The resource • Resource distribution - solar, geothermal,wind, wave, tidal,ocean current • Bioenergy and biomass productivity Solar Geothermal Wind Wave Current

32. All technologies have paybacks

33. Personal mobility

34. Private transport • Fuel efficiency, other energy sources • Transport • Energy storage key • New technologies may be disruptive

35. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids • Mitsubishi Fuso • London Bus • GE Haul Pak • Honda prime mover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

36. Electric mass transit • Siemens Bordeaux light rail • Bombardier wireless light rail • Slim Ride -15 passengers • Series 700 Shinkansen train – 285 km/h

37. Green homes

38. Smart grids, smart houses (and offices) • Integrated energy planning • Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

39. Green precincts, green towns, green cities, smart cities • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China for 350 000. • $10bn green new city for 225,000 people, Portugal. • Masdar City $US22 billion for 50 000. • Australia • City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 • City of Melbourne • StirlingCity Centre • Cockburn Coast • Fremantle • Alkimos • Yanchep Beach

40. Don’t build in disaster

41. Smart politics

42. Energy efficiency

43. Sustainable energy - and energy efficiency • Energy efficiency in all forms • Distributed, renewable energy • Known costs, resource life 1000++ years • Stored energy in commodities, desal • Energy storage key to: • improved energy delivery • increased reliability • reduced emissions • Walmart • Wesfarmers

44. Waves of innovation

45. What we can create with energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy

46. Image removed to reduce file size – visit http://www.thefuntheory.com/piano-staircase

47. Industry chamber for any businesses / enterprise in sustainable energy or being more sustainable • Based in Perth, over 400 members nationally • Information, communication, and networking businesses • Government advocacy (lobbying) • Policy development • Legislation, regs and taxation - barriers and incentives • Education, skills and training • Calls for government leadership - and procurement • Industry mapping • Energising Kids – energy for the next generation

48. www.seaaus.com.au