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Climate Change

Climate Change. What causes temperature change? Man? Nature? Can/should we do anything about it? What effects may result in our attempts to do so? Is it a problem? To what extent are these things (sea level change, drought, increased storms, etc.) happening? Is it happening?

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change

  2. What causes temperature change? • Man? • Nature? • Can/should we do anything about it? • What effects may result in our attempts to do so? • Is it a problem? • To what extent are these things (sea level change, drought, increased storms, etc.) happening? • Is it happening? • Nobody asks this anymore

  3. Australians and Canadians feel similar views

  4. What is global warming and cooling based on? • We have to look at what regulates the temperature of the Earth …

  5. What’s wrong with this pie chart?

  6. So how do we calculate the human contribution to global warming?

  7. Melting Ice / Rising Sea Levels • How much have sea levels risen? • How much will they rise? • What makes them rise? • What can we do about it?

  8. “… one thing is certain. No sea ice means no seals which means no polar bears.” – Skeptical Environmentalist • WHAT?!

  9. How much have they risen? • About a foot since 1860 • Is this outside the realm of human experience? • How much will they rise? • About another foot (UN, 2007)

  10. But what about all the melting ice? • Glaciers and sea ice have increased and decreased many times • Greenland and Iceland during the Medieval Warming

  11. But what about all the melting ice? • Larsen B ice shelf • Did not affect sea levels • .02% • Worst case scenario for Antarctica vs. Reality

  12. But what about all the melting ice? • Larsen B ice shelf • Greenland • It is losing some ice mass • How long would it take to affect sea levels? • A lot of warming in the 1990s, but after a lot of cooling

  13. But what about all the melting ice? • Larsen B ice shelf • Greenland • Kilimanjaro • What is the main reason for the loss of ice? • What do you think the Tanzanian farmers’ real concerns are?

  14. Then what makes sea level rise? • Warmer temperatures have effects • Time is a factor • How will we handle it?

  15. Spreading Disease • Climate change as a scapegoat for government failure • Mosquito-borne diseases • Malaria • Dengue fever • Yellow fever

  16. Central America • Northern South America • Tropical Asia • Areas of the Mediterranean • Former USSR

  17. What is the ‘Mosquito line’? • Another example of the wrong cause and the wrong solution • How did it end up in the IPCC report?

  18. The best ways to keep these diseases under control … • “The principle factors involved are deforestation, new agricultural practices, population increase, urbanization, poverty, civil conflict, war, AIDS, resistance to anti-malarials, and resistance to insecticides, not climate.” Paul Reiter, “Global Warming and Vector-borne Disease in Temperature Regions and High Altitude,” Correspondence, author’s reply, The Lancet 351, no. 9105 (March 14, 1998): 839-840.

  19. What about altitude and latitude? • Dengue in Greece (1920s) • 600k dead in the USSR (1920s) • High altitudes in the Himalayas and the Andes

  20. What kind of damage has been done by excessive worry about climate change? • Our various scares and ‘solutions’ cause a lot of damage in the 3rd world • The worry over malaria provides one example

  21. The Precautionary Principle is used by many people • Be positive about something before you use it • Where would we be with this philosophy?

  22. One example: • The hampering of energy needs in the 1st and 3rd worlds due to the terror of nuclear power

  23. Our example today: Malaria and DDT • Developed in 1944 • Cheap and easy • Disappeared in Europe and in North America • What about success in the 3rd world? • 3m to 7300 in Sri Lanka • 75m to 50000 in India • Importance of developed world? The US gave $1.3bn to the effort

  24. Human cost? • Economic cost?

  25. Upon what was the decision based? • What we know DDT has done positively vs. what might happen negatively • Link to Malthus?

  26. Increased extreme weather • Two things to look at today: • There is no evidence of hurricanes’ greater frequency or power. • So why/how are more people dying and more property damage being done?

  27. Who is Dr. Christopher Landsea? • Atmospheric Scientist • A member of the National Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • Won an award for being the top in his field • Writes for top publications • Contributed to the IPCC several times

  28. His story teaches us a valuable lesson • Resigned from the IPCC after Kevin Trenberth’s announcement • The announcement did it’s damage • 2007 report: no data to support the claims • What did the media do?

  29. “There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and intensity.” - Landsea • “There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.” – IPCC

  30. “The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.” – Summary Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

  31. More people, more valuable property, more dangerous areas • Hurricane Andrew: 1992 vs. 2002 • Association of British Insurers • No human change but continued global warming: • 10% increase in damages • No climate change but continued societal change: • 500% increase in damages – Bjorn Lomborg • What does this tell you?

  32. Insurer-initiated hurricane-loss-prevention methods used at nearly 500 commercial locations along the Gulf Coast avoided $500 million in property damage from Hurricane Katrina, one-eighth less damage than properties that did not make the engineering improvements. Insurer FM Global says the $500 million in savings came after customer investments of only $2.5 million and helped make the company profitable in a year of record claims across the industry. • Evan Mills and Eugene Lecomte Ceres, “From Risk to Opportunity: How Insurers Can Proactively and Profitably Manage Climate Change,” Kiplinger Business Resource Center. March 2007. http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/summary/archive/2007 /ceresglobalwarming.html. Found: January 23, 2009.

  33. Threats to Species • How does this work? • Have the planet’s various species seen climate changes before?

  34. What really causes species endangerment?

  35. Asteroids • Yucatan • Australian coast

  36. Hunting • North America • Australia

  37. Agriculture • A greater amount of land taken by humans

  38. Agriculture (cont’d …) • Half as many extinctions late 20th C. as late 19th C.

  39. Famine and Drought • What really causes famine? • USSR, Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia

  40. Technology has a greater effect on agricultural output than does climate • The era of ‘scientific agriculture’ and the Green Revolution

  41. But what about the warming of Europe? • The importance of transportation and storage • Look at Japan

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