CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION - AND MASS STARVATION BY 2050?

1. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION- AND MASS STARVATION BY 2050? Tim Curtin Presentation to the ANU EMERITUS FACULTY 20th February 2008

2. Carbon Stocks and Flows

3. Increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide 1958-2006 in parts per million by volume (ppmv)

4. If only inflation was as low as CO2 growth at less than 0.2% p.a.

5. Measuring Global warming in 1885: the data base year

6. GLOBAL Temperature Anomalies 1880-1900in .01 C base period: 1951-1980

7. Global climate science • If “global” temperatures in 1885 were below the average for 1951-1980, when in the 1880s there was in effect zero instrumental temperature coverage of the tropics, where is the “science”? • Clearly a case of lies, damned lies, and…

8. Measuring AGW 1945

9. Measuring “global” warming – in 2005if it existed it was mostly measured in the USA

10. Measuring Global warming • How global warming is measured by GISS, Miami Arizona

11. Rise in temperature at Miami AZ after relocation of weather station in 2001 (station used to be in Magma copper mine pit workings)

12. Lampasas Texas – new location 2001

13. Hey presto, global warming! Or how Jim Hansen made 2005 the warmest year ever

14. Mr Micawber’s basic accounting identity – and mine • Y = income, X = expenditure • Y > X = happiness • Y < X = misery • Y – X = S (Saving) • M = emissions of CO2 in year t • C = change in atmospheric concentration of CO2 in year t • U = uptakes of CO2 by terrestrial & oceanic photosynthesis in year t • Ct = Mt – Ut, so Ut = Mt – Ct • In 2000-2006 on average, Mt = 9.1 GtC, Ct = 4.1 GtC, so Ut = 5.0 GtC • That is, 9.1 – 4.1 = 5.0 • So uptakes by photosynthesis averaged 5 GtC p.a. equal to 55 per cent of CO2 emissions from 2000-2006 (Source: Canadell et al PNAS 2007)

15. Sensitivity to estimation error – each under-estimate of CO2 emissions means an equal and opposite understatement of CO2 uptakes

16. What of Human CO2 emissions?(aka breath)

17. Micawber’s Climate Stocks and Flows

18. Fig.1 Falling proportion of retained emissions (unvarnished data)

19. Fig.2. The massaged (by Canadell et al) version of the data - rising proportion of emissions retained in the atmosphere

20. How to fudge data • Canadell & co justify the data massaging they did to get the declining trend curve in Fig.1 to turn up as in Fig.2 in the Supporting text to their PNAS October 2007 paper. • Despite having an annual time series of more than 40 years they considered it necessary (1) to remove intra-annual variability of the Mauna Loa series due to the spring flush of the NH, and (2) the inter-annual variability associated with El Nino (ENSO) and volcanic data. • Step (1) is unnecessary for an annual end-of year series. The success of Step (2) in reversing the trend of the raw data implies that ENSO and volcanic activity themselves had a secular trend to act as sinks, soaking up CO2. • The truth is that Canadell et al have been striving for years in a great profusion of papers and books to prove that there is already “Saturation of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink” (that is the title of their chapter 6 in their latest book on all this). • But Micawber’s identity defeats them, for the annoying truth is that virtually every year since 1960 more than half of recorded CO2 emissions has been taken up by globally, so less than half has stayed up, as confirmed by comparing CGIAD and IEA data on emissions with Mauna Loa.

21. Fig.3 Saturation of the Earth’s sinks? The declining trend of the airborne fraction since 1993 again indicates increasing sinks

22. Fig.4 Another refutation of Canadell’s saturating terrestrial sink: world food production absorbs CO2 via GPP

23. Fig. 5 Relationship between CO2 emissions and world food production – emission flows more important than the atmospheric stock because of partial pressure and altitude effects

24. Effect of elevated CO2 on yields

25. In defence of oil palm

26. Mass suicide plans of the IPCC, EU and Mr Rudd • 55 per cent of CO2 emissions are taken up by photosynthesis, and this equates to Mr Micawber’s savings and happiness. • But the IPCC, EU and Mr Rudd (along with Ms Wong and Ross Garnaut) require us to reduce emissions to 40 per cent of the 1990 level by 2050. • McKinsey claimed last week Australia could do better by achieving 40 per cent of the 1990 level by 2030, at a cost per person equal to just one mobile phone call a day. • The global 1990 level of emissions was 8.36 GtC (including land use change of 2.26 GtC),, so reducing to 40% of the 1990 level means a level of 3.35 GtC, which is 33% of the 2006 level of 9.94 GtC, and (for Australia) 27% of the 2030 BAU level. • Emissions reduced to 3.35 GtC will be well below the current uptake level of CO2 of over 5 GtC a year, and that must impact on productivity of agriculture forestry and fisheries

27. Fig.6 How to create a shortage of carbon dioxide by reducing emissions to 40% of 2000 level by 2050

28. Fig.7Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)after global emissions reduction to 40% of level in 2000 by 2050

29. Will agricultural production at today’s level and growth be sustainable with 60% cuts in emissions from the 1990 level by 2050? • Obviously Figs. 6 and 7 & depend on the assumption that CO2 uptakes continue even if China and India join the US, EU, and Australia et al in going for the minimum 60% cuts in 1990 emission levels by 2050 (Stern wants 80%). • Probably they will not. But if not, what then for the agricultural production levels and growth in Fig.5? • They will not be sustainable if emissions are cut by that amount, and starvation resulting from the ever rising food prices we are already witnessing will soon be the lot of all our grandchildren.

30. The Hansen-Sato emission reduction rule • James Hansen and Makiko Sato (PNAS, 16 Nov 2004): the growth rate of methane (CH4) emissions is down by 66% since 1980. • N2O growth shows zero trend since 1978. • That means a reduced need to cut CO2 emissions for any targeted level of forcings. • “Stabilization of atmospheric composition requires CO2 emissions to be reduced to match the CO2 absorbed by the ocean and biosphere”. • Why then do UK, EU, and Australia seek to reduce emissions below the rate of absorption?

31. Why not set targets by latitude?

32. Enforcing Kyoto: the Garnaut Plan • “There is already influential talk in the United States (amongst those supporting firm mitigation policies at home) and the European Union, of trade sanctions against non-cooperating countries. • I myself worry about the risk of capture by other interests favouring protection for other reasons. Withdrawal of opportunities for trade in greenhouse gas credits and development assistance would seem to be less problematic instruments of ‘punishment’.” (Lee Lecture, 29/11/07) • The suggested “punishments” look more like toothless tigers: if China and India decline to subscribe to Kyoto II, that itself indicates a lack of interest in emissions trading credits, and both are doing quite well enough without development assistance. • The EU’s threat to impose trade sanctions is of course largely protectionist, but very dangerous, as trade wars can lead to real wars (remember Pearl Harbor).

33. The Garnaut Emission Trading Scheme • Ross Garnaut has already sketched what he has in mind for his ETS Report: • Targets or Caps will not be fixed or enforced on an annual basis so long as at the end (2020, 2030, or 2050) the respective target has been achieved. • The Trading in Credits will be managed by a kind of “Reserve Bank”. • Problem: For any given Cap to be achieved, enough firms must emit enough less than their caps to earn credits for sale to non-performing firms to cover their excess emissions.

34. Emissions Trading in Practice: the case of Rio Tinto • Rio Tinto’s Aluminium operations increased their emissions of CO2e from 166,486 tonnes in 2004 to 973,977 tonnes in 2006 (2007). Had the ALP won the 2004 election and introduced emissions caps and trading, presumably the expansion of output leading to these growing emissions could only have happened if Rio had bought credits. Even if the carbon dioxide price that emerged from the ETS was only A$60 per tonne of CO2e (A$16.34 per tonne of carbon), (McKinsey mentioned A$65 last week) Rio would have had to buy credits costing A$50 million p.a. (assuming the cap had been set only at 80% of the 2004 level), equal to 20 per cent of its capital expenditure in 2006, or 6.76 per cent of net earnings in 2006. Given that the ETS credits would have to be purchased every year, how long would it take for Rio to determine that piping the CO2 into Gladstone harbour was more cost effective. It would moreover be able to recover the cost of this by selling the resulting earned credits to those with less easy disposal options. A good news day for the Barrier Reef!

35. Emission caps & trading could promote CCS with its potential for more harm that that of nuclear waste • In 1986 the volcanic lake on Cameroon’s Mount Nios produced a cloud of carbon dioxide that drifted down the mountain and killed 1750 villagers as they slept. This was many more than the 36 or so who died at Chernobyl just a few months earlier. • In 1979, an explosion at Dieng volcano in Indonesia released 200,000 tonnes of CO2, smothering 142 people on the plain below. Any gas at concentrations approaching 1 million ppm is highly dangerous, apart from oxygen

36. Cargo cult of the 21st century (Peter Walsh) • The Hawke government finance minister Peter Walsh has warned the Rudd Government that cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would send Australian living standards back to the Middle Ages. (The Australian, 26 January 2008)

37. References • Ainsworth, E.A. and S.P. Long 2005. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? New Phytologist, 165: 351-372. • Australian Greenhouse Office 2006. Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts. AGO, Canberra. • Canadell, J. and C Le Quéré, M.R. Raupach, C.B. Field, E.T. Buitenhius, P. Ciais, T.J. Conway, N.P. Gillett, R.A. Houghton, G. Marland 2007a. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA, October 25, 2007. • Canadell, J., and P. Ciais, T. Conway, C. Field, C. Le Quéré, S. Houghton, G. Marland, M. Raupach, E. Buitenhuis, N. Gillett 2007b. Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget. Global Carbon Project, Canberra. • CDIAC 2007. see Marland et al. 2007 • Coase, R.H. 1990. The Firm the Market and the Law. University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London. • Denman K.L. et al. (including P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, P. Bousquet, J. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, C. Le Quéré, M. Raupach, and W. Steffen) 2007. Couplings between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry, in WGI 2007. • Dyson, F. 2007. A Many-colored Glass. Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe. University of Virginia Press. Charlottesville and London.

38. More References • Garnaut, R. 2007. Will climate change bring an end to the Platinum Age? Inaugural S.T. Lee Lecture. • Hansen, J. and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, November 16, 2004, vol.101, 46, 16109-16114. • Hoyle, F. 1981. Ice. Hutchison, London. • Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf 2007.Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppmv) at Mauna Loa. Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO), from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2 • Lomborg, B. 2007. Cool it. The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming. Marshall Cavendish, London. • Marland, G, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andrews 2007. Trends; a compendium of data. CDIAC, Oak Ridge (availble at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/ Metz, Metz B. et al. (eds) 2005. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. IPCC Special Report. Summary for Policy Makers. IPCC, WG III. • Nicholls, R.J. and R.S.J. Tol 2006, ‘Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the 21st Century’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 361 (1841), 1073-1095. • Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G.Boyer 2000, Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. • Penner, J.E., D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J. Dokken, M. McFarland 1999. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. IPCC, CUP, Cambridge.

39. And more references • Rio Tinto 2007. Annual Report and Financial Statements 2006. Rio Tinto Limited, Melbourne. • Robson, A. 2007. A Solution in Search of a Problem. Lavoisier Group, www.lavoisier.com.au, Melbourne. • Shergold, P. 2007. Report of the Task Group on Emissions Trading. Australian Government, Canberra. • Stern, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. CUP, Cambridge. • Stoy, V. 1965. Photosynthesis, respiration, and carbohydrate accumulation in spring wheat in relation to yield. Physologia Plantarum Supplementum IV, Lund. • Tol, R.S.J. and G.W. Yohe 2006, ‘Of Dangerous Climate Change and Dangerous Emission Reduction’ in H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe (eds.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 30, pp. 291-298. • UIG (Universal Industrial Gases) 2007. Carbon Dioxide Properties, Uses, Applications. UIG, Easton PA. (available at www.uigi.com/carbondioxide.html) • WGI (Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007. Climate Change 2007.The Physical Science Basis. CUP, Cambridge. • WGIII (Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.

40. Annex: Freeman Dyson and carbon dioxide(not used at Presentation) The effect of carbon dioxide is important where the air is dry, and air is usually dry only where it is cold. Hot desert air may feel dry but often contains a lot of water vapor. The warming effect of carbon dioxide is strongest where air is cold and dry, mainly in the arctic rather than in the tropics, mainly in mountainous regions rather than in lowlands, mainly in winter rather than in summer, and mainly at night rather than in daytime. The warming is real, but it is mostly making cold places warmer rather than making hot places hotter. To represent this local warming by a global average is misleading. The fundamental reason why carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is critically important to biology is that there is so little of it. A field of corn growing in full sunlight in the middle of the day uses up all the carbon dioxide within a meter of the ground in about five minutes. If the air were not constantly stirred by convection currents and winds, the corn would stop growing. About a tenth of all the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is converted into biomass every summer and given back to the atmosphere every fall. That is why the effects of fossil-fuel burning cannot be separated from the effects of plant growth and decay.

41. More Freeman Dyson Greenhouse experiments show that many plants growing in an atmosphere enriched with carbon dioxide react by increasing their root-to-shoot ratio. This means that the plants put more of their growth into roots and ess into stems and leaves. A change in this direction is to be expected, because the plants have to maintain a balance between the leaves collecting carbon from the air and the roots collecting mineral nutrients from the soil. The enriched atmosphere tilts the balance so that the plants need less leaf-area and more root-area. Now consider what happens to the roots and shoots when the growing season is over, when the leaves fall and the plants die. The new-grown biomass decays and is eaten by fungi or microbes. Some of it returns to the atmosphere and some of it is converted into topsoil. On the average, more of the above-ground growth will return to the atmosphere and more of the below-ground growth will become topsoil. So the plants with increased root-to-shoot ratio will cause an increased transfer of carbon from the atmosphere into topsoil. If the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to fossil-fuel burning has caused an increase in the average root-to-shoot ratio of plants over large areas, then the possible effect on the top-soil reservoir will not be small.

42. Freeman Dyson, cont. There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the warming is not global. I am not saying that the warming does not cause problems. Obviously it does. Obviously we should be trying to understand it better. I am saying that the problems are grossly exaggerated. They take away money and attention from other problems that are more urgent and more important, such as poverty and infectious disease and public education and public health, and the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans, not to mention easy problems such as the timely construction of adequate dikes around the city of New Orleans. We don’t know how big a fraction of our emissions is absorbed by the land, since we have not measured the increase or decrease of the biomass. The number that I ask you to remember is the increase in thickness, averaged over one half of the land area of the planet, of the biomass that would result if all the carbon that we are emitting by burning fossil fuels were absorbed. The average increase in thickness is one hundredth of an inch per year. The point of this calculation is the very favourable rate of exchange between carbon in the atmosphere and carbon in the soil..

43. Freeman Dyson, concluded To stop the carbon in the atmosphere from increasing, we only need to grow the biomass in the soil by a hundredth of an inch per year… If we plant crops without ploughing the soil, more of the biomass goes into roots which stay in the soil, and less returns to the atmosphere. If we use genetic engineering to put more biomass into roots, we can probably achieve much more rapid growth of topsoil. I conclude from this calculation that the problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a problem of land management, not a problem of meteorology…. We do not know whether intelligent land-management could increase the growth of the topsoil reservoir by four billion tons of carbon per year, the amount needed to stop the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. All that we can say for sure is that this is a theoretical possibility and ought to be seriously explored. [But clearly it will not be explored by the Garnaut Review]