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Novel Ecosystems + Climate Change = ???

Novel Ecosystems + Climate Change = ???. Scott Goodrick USDA Forest Service Athens, GA.

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Novel Ecosystems + Climate Change = ???

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  1. Novel Ecosystems + Climate Change = ??? Scott Goodrick USDA Forest Service Athens, GA

  2. Disclaimer: All content provided in this presentation is for informational/entertainment purposes only. The presenter makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. The presenter is a meteorologist, not an ecologist. The presenter will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. This policy is subject to change at anytime.

  3. Novel Ecosystems

  4. Novel Ecosystem Revised

  5. Illustration of Novel Ecosystem

  6. Mapping Environmental Risk • Saxon et al. 2005 • Classified pixels based on 14 environmental variables • Compare current conditions with those simulated by climate model

  7. Current Conditions

  8. Future Conditions

  9. Change

  10. Domains that disappear in future

  11. No analog climates

  12. Human Footprint Index

  13. Conclusions • Novel ecosystems becoming the rule rather than the exception • Future climate conditions in U.S. Will likely have few analogs to current conditions • Historical ecosystems will become less relevant

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