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Tassos Haniotis Director - Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations

On trade and trade-related questions: some personal reflections CEAS/AES Conference on Regional Trade Agreements 24 June 2011 Keynes College, University of Kent. Tassos Haniotis Director - Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG for Agriculture and Rural Development

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Tassos Haniotis Director - Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations

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  1. On trade and trade-related questions:some personal reflectionsCEAS/AES Conference on Regional Trade Agreements24 June 2011Keynes College, University of Kent Tassos Haniotis Director -Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

  2. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What could the role of agriculture be in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the overall economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? 2

  3. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What could the role of agriculture be in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the overall economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? 3

  4. Recent trends in commodity prices Fertilisers + 163 % Energy + 223 % Agriculture + 50 % Source: World Bank.

  5. Price developments in the EU food chain FOOD PRICE CRISIS PRODUCER LAG RETAIL LAG DEJA VU? Agricultural commodity prices Food consumer prices Food producer prices Overall inflation (HICP) Source: European Commission – DG Economic and Financial Affairs, based on Eurostat data

  6. EU agricultural prices Source: Eurostat

  7. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What is the role of agriculture in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? 7

  8. Where does trade fit in all this? • exogenous strong influence on price effects • unpredictable short-term price swings • predictable long-term tariff adjustments Tariffs and market access • diminishing role of price support • increasing role of environmental support • uncertain role of indirect measures Domestic support • irrelevance of export subsidies • unpredictability of export bans • relevance of net-trade position Export competition

  9. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What is the role of agriculture in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? 9

  10. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What is the role of agriculture in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? 10

  11. Four basic questions on trade-related agreements Why do we continue to seek today more trade agreements? What is the role of agriculture in them? What is the impact of trade agreements on the economy? Are available analytical tools sufficient? Conclusion: paradigm shift needed, but nowhere in sight 11

  12. Thank you

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