Planning for the 2020 Census

1. Planning for the 2020 Census Presentation to the SDC/CIC Steering Committees Daniel H. Weinberg Assistant Director for ACS and Decennial Census June 17, 2010

2. The Context The rising costs of the 2010 Census were largely driven by three factors: (1) declining self-response rates requiring the hiring of a large field staff, (2) paper-based and labor-intensive methods requiring a large field infrastructure, and (3) substantial investments in major, national updating of the address frame just prior to the enumeration (2009). Census Cost per Housing Unit (2010$) (Projected cost for 2020 assumes no change in design and past patterns of cost growth; it also includes the costs for American Community Survey.)

3. Goals • The strategic outcome is to develop a design which strikes a balance between delivering the highest quality census while reducing costs and managing risks. • The 2020 Census has four strategic goals: • (1) An Accurate and Complete Census, • (2) Embraced and Valued Results, • (3) An Efficient Census, and • (4) A Well-Managed Census.

4. Planning Principles for Identifying Research Projects(1) • Reduces Cost—potential that the project could result in overall reduction in census cost per housing unit versus historical trends; • Improves Quality—potential that the project could result in overall improved census quality; • Reduces Field Timeline—potential that the project could result in reducing the amount of time that field data collection occurs (thus reducing recall bias); • Tailored Response Modes—potential that the project supports customization of response modes by geography and demographics (thus improving response and potentially reducing differential undercoverage); • Leverages ACS—potential that project could integrate software and hardware improvements into the American Community Survey and that testing could occur using the ACS infrastructure (such as the Internet self-response test planned for 2011);

5. Planning Principles (2) • Supports Continual Frame Updating—potential that the project supports the updating and improvement of the address frame and spatial database over the decade; • Supports Agile Decision-making—the potential for the project to be supported by small tests thereby allowing quick and informed decision-making, in support of a more flexible and resilient overall design; • Reuses Data—potential for the project to use administrative records or existing Census Bureau data, including ACS data; • Leverages Systems and Methods—potential for the project to leverage existing systems and/or methods to jump-start development of systems or processes; • Leverages Partnerships—potential for the project to use external partners to support the census design; and • Supports Organizational Solutions—potential for the project to lead to more agency-wide solutions across program areas, rather than development of throw-away solutions and/or duplication of systems and methods.

6. The Process • Solicit bold and innovative ideas both from Census Bureau staff and key stakeholders, including several members of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Panel to Review the 2010 Census, Statistics Canada; • Consolidated the more than 600 ideas into approximately 75 possible research projects, assessed the methodologies needed to carry out those projects; • Assessed the potential research projects against the planning principles, and developed cost estimates for the high and medium priority projects; • Selected those research and support projects that will help determine the likely design of the 2020 Census and included them in a FY 2012 budget initiative.

9. Key FY12-14 Research Questions (1) • Expanded, automated, and tailored response: How do we leverage technology, demographic/geographic response propensities, and new response modes to increase self-response, improve non-response data collection strategies, and improve overall quality? • Reengineered field structure, including Bureau-wide integrated IT infrastructure: How can we modernize and increase the efficiency and utility of our IT and Field operational infrastructure? • Continual address frame updating and targeting: As the (FY11) Geographic Support Systems Initiative proceeds, how will we determine the level of quality needed in the address frame to conduct an accurate census (as distinct from a household survey) and then measure the quality of the continually updated Master Address File for that purpose?

10. Key FY12-14 Research Questions (2) • Using administrative records for non-response: Given the substantial improvements in the quality of administrative records, especially commercial files, how do we leverage such existing information to significantly reduce decennial census cost, while maintaining or improving quality? • General Design Questions: If a greater number of response modes and administrative records are cornerstones of the 2020 Census design, will we be able to effectively unduplicate response data, deal with potential privacy and confidentiality concerns, and reduce or streamline other operations?

11. Implications • The purpose of the research and testing phase is to determine how much change is possible; critical design decisions are required by 2015 to avoid past problems: • To what extent can we target address canvassing in 2019? • How will we collect and integrate respondent information (which response modes will we use and to what extent will we use administrative records)? • What will be the extent of field infrastructure (in other words, how far should we go toward centralization)? • Investment is required early in the cycle to reduce cost and risk as the decade progresses • The more substantial a change to the decennial design that is contemplated, the more must be invested in research up-front

12. Next Steps • Continue development of the research agenda as further external consultations take place, including from a workshop being planned by the NAS Panel for Fall 2010. • To the extent possible, begin work on program management and systems engineering strategies as 2010 Census winds down • Look for opportunities to leverage work on other programs and to begin research efforts earlier than October 2011.