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Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making. 16th- 17th October 2008. Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies. Augusta Maria Paci Maria Stella Chiacchio. ITIA-CNR.
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Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Augusta Maria Paci Maria Stella Chiacchio ITIA-CNR
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Rationale • FTA in research and innovation is the relevant process for planning collaborative development of future industrial technologies. • New approach to technology foresight – coupled with the roadmapping and impact assessment for implementation. • The Rolling programme method to bring R&I forward processing multiple inputs from multiple stakeholders to producea unique common direction for multiple stakeholders serving as a new input for action.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Foresight F R Roadmapping Implementation VISION I M Monitoring Rolling Programme: FRIM cycle Foresight: demand driven process for future technologies with attractiveness and feasibility analysis. Roadmapping: open process for screening and planning of the RTD prioritization of next generation technologies with feasibility and traceability of industrial expected impacts by time horizons. Monitoring: the assessment and evaluation process towards innovation knowledge capture and CBA. Implementation: the process towards consistency of efforts for stakeholders interventions. Plans of priorities to minimizing threats, maximizing opportunities and reducing risks for new HAV products/services, processes and business models.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies EPPLab, 2008 Rolling Programme visibility Rolling Programme ensures through Knowledge Management for Innovationeffectiveness, efficiency and consistency to futuring-oriented technologies for production systems emerging paradigms. The goal is to track and make the end to end visibility of the advancements towards turning knowledge into innovation.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies The Background: Leadership SSA project • Leadership Information Base • 25 manufacturing sectors and Sectoral roadmaps; • 147 industrial targets from the industrial survey of 120 KOLs; • 49 RTD macro areaspublished in the Overall ManuFuture Roadmap; • 491 technology fact sheets produced by the Leadership Roadmapping. The empirical study: Impact assessment • The autonomous study “Transectoral technologies’ impact on sectors”, carried onby EPPLab in the FP6 SSA Leadership project, deals with: • RTD pre-competitive areas analyzing the industrial expected impact at European level; • Industrial targets of innovation of 25 manufacturing sectorsthatare analyzed with regard to the futuring expected impact of 49 RTD areas; • the synthetic Impact view thatis in the “Initial Impact Matrix” consistent with the ManuFuture reference model.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies www.leadership-ssa.org Empirical study: Initial Impact Matrix temporal distribution of sectors’ innovation 6 ManuFuture SRA Pillars Interested Sectors • Main results: • the cross-referenced demand driven prioritization of RTD areas • 100 top topics for Call Topics for the Stakeholders and for the European Commission multi-annual planning in the FP7 Programme 4.3 “New Production”.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Application of demand driven Futuring Model Demand driven FRIM cycle
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Empirical study: Operative method flow INFORMATION ANALYSIS of sectoral Roadmaps EXTRACTION Sectors’ targets • Focus on: • sectors HVA targets; • Time horizon; • multi-sectoral perspective; • multi-technological perspective. CATCHING Sectors’ targets content and time horizon RELATIONSHIP • Macro areas and sectors, giving: • Traceability of transectoral macro areas • by the multiple sectors demand; • Visibility of time horizon; • Prioritization of macro areas. SCOPE RESULTS • Hierarchy of precompetitive • innovation needs: • A transectoral technology need • A multisectoral need • A sector need • Initial Impact matrix • Twofold view matrix
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Development of FTA in research and innovation Empirical Study: twofold view
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies FTA in research: example of RTD Macro Area view Offer: RTD Macro area Indirect element: Traceability Expected impact (grey color) Demand: 25 Sectors Direct element: Time horizon Continuous need Indirect element: Traceability No expected impact (white color)
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies FTA in research and innovation for policy and decision making • The empirical study: • supports European stakeholders, researchers, Industries and Policy Bodies at multilevel for competitiveness and sustainability to develop new capabilities to generate anticipatory initiatives that require impact assessment analysis to understand the entire transformation process. • contributes to the direct involvement of stakeholders on planning and coordinating future actions in terms of R&D programmes, competitive calls and funded projects. • responds to the need of “Sound Intelligence support” already envisaged by CREST Multilevel Policies Report, 2007.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Conclusions: a new futuring context A new futuring context for research and innovation requires: • to build an open environment networking industrial research and innovation communities; • to develop new foresight method - from a linear to a complex approach - to respond to the increasingly complex, interdependent and uncertain realms of today’s business and policy strategy in the Knowledge economy; • to create a value upstream through availability of existing competences and of sound directions; • to support FTA for Industrial Research with the rolling programme. This is the new futuring context of research and industry stakeholders to operate more effectively andto proceed faster toward the common goal.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Acknowledgments The authors are pleased to acknowledge Mr. Andrea Gentili, Coordinator for the European Commission of the ManuFuture Platform, and Mr. Jyrki Suominen, Scientific Officer of European Commission and Project Officer of Leadership project, for their precious collaboration and suggestions. Acknowledgements are also due to ManuFuture European Technology Platform, to ManuFuture National Technological Platforms and to the Leadership Consortium. A particular appreciation is to industrial key opinion leaders of about 120 companies and to roadmappers of research organizations involved in the roadmapping activity of the Leadership project.
Futuring the changing world for Industrial Technologies Augusta Maria Paci EPPLab Responsible Maria Stella Chiacchio doctoral student in Economic and Management Engineering at “Tor Vergata” University in Rome EPPLab of ITIA-CNR (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche) Via dei Taurini, 19 00185 Rome, Italy +39 06 4993 7870 maria.chiacchio@itia.cnr.it