Low-Carbon Urbanisation: Contemporary Trends in Global Cities

1. Low-Carbon Urbanisation: Contemporary Trends in Global Cities Can China become a global pioneer for low-carbon urbanisation? Prepared by David Adam of Global Cities Ltd. November 2013

2. The Urban Century 10%lived in cities in 1900 50%living in cities in 200775%will be living in cities in 2050 180,000 people move to cities every day 60 million per year people from developing countries move into cities Over the next 15 to 20 years, many cities in Africa and Asia will double in size.

5. When it comes to carbon the facts speak for themselves

6. Smart Cities • Future Cities • Green Cities • Intelligent Cities • Sustainable Cities • Low-Carbon Cities • Eco-Cities • Healthy Cities • Liveable Cities Policy-makers and business leaders the world over are discussing:

7. Deep Green - In this deep ecological approach there have to be limits to economic development, consumption is stigmatised- individuals, business, and government must restrict their levels of consumption and one might argue there is a desire to turn back time to pre-industrial conditions. • Examples: Dharavi Slums, Mumbai

8. Light Green - This model focusses much more onliveability, emphasis is put on the health and experience of the individual, the welfareof the citizen is paramount and regulation and infrastructure are priorities to encourage individual behavioural change and to enable transit via walkability and bike-ability • Examples: Copenhagen, London, New York, Cheonggyecheon River - Seoul

9. Bright Green - Many theorists, corporates and urban practitioners have been captivated by the business and technology-led opportunities creating sustainable outcomes through green growth. Practitioners refer to intelligent buildings, smart technology, green job growth, smart grids and smart metering, efficient energy consumption and the ‘Technology Fix’. City Examples: Dongtan, Songdo City, Gongqing - Jianxi Province, Danyang (Jiangsu Province) Corporates with a Smart City Focus: Cisco, IBM, Siemens, Cap Gemini, Philips, Nokia -Siemens, Microsoft.

10. 100 resident per hectare is the optimum amount of density to encourage and nurture trade and exchange _ Manhattan in 300 p/h

11. China experiences the intensity of these urbanising trends more than any other part of the world • An emphasis on the technological and infrastructure solutions is important • Better urban planning - greater density, improved public transport etc.  • BUT it must also give an important emphasis on liveability • Does China have the ability to become a global pioneer in low-carbon city development? What is China’s role in this new urban century?

12. Solar 5000 times more solar energy falling on the planet than we use in one year Solar power in the deserts of North Africa enough to supply 40x present worldwide elecriticy demand Over the past 30 years for every doubling of global PV production costs have dropped by 20% Solar prices are dropping at 5 to 6% annualy and capacity is growing at 30% accounting for 1% of our energy supply 1% penetration at an annual growth of 30% puts us 18 years away from meeting 100% of our energy needs from solar The Technological Fix - Bright Green Futures?

13. Energy Storage What’s required is ‘grid-level’ storage collecting energy during the day and releasing it at night Currently lithium batteries would need to improve 20-fold and to be scalable they need to move to earth-abundant elements The Technological Fix - Bright Green Futures?

14. Energy • Transit Oriented Development or Mixed-Use planning • Combined heat and power (CHP) • Renewable Energy • District Heating and Cooling • Waste • Sharing Waste Sorting • Pneumatic Waste Collection • Anaerobic Digestion • Water • Rainwater Management • Graywater systems • Greenspace Some areas for action

15. Some Examples

16. Energy • Each district has a centralized heating system that takes waste heat from electricity generation and uses it to heat buildings. • Transportation • World-class infrastructure for non-automobile transportation, • Extensive and expanding subway system, bus networks, and a suburban rail system. All residents live within 400 metres of public transportation. • There are 388 km of cycling routes and 50 percent of commuting trips are by bicycle. • Facilitate the rollout of electric vehicles by installing charging infrastructure. • Water • In 2001, replace entire watermain network over the course of the century, upgrading 1% of the network, or 9km each year. • Water leakage is now 5%, compared with an average of 20 to 25% for most European cities. • Modernized the sewage system - rainwater reservoirs, storing wastewater during storms until there is capacity in the sewage system, • Systems to clean the water and minimize nutrient salts and heavy metals. • Waste • Regulations, incentives, and information campaigns encourage waste diversion, • Pilot plant separates household waste into organic and inorganic materials and produces biogas and bioethanol: used as an energy supply for district heating. • Neighborhoods • Piloting carbon-neutral neighborhoods: energy-efficient residential and commercial buildings, sustainable energy networks including renewable-energy installations, and low-emission transportation systems. Case Study Copenhagen

17. New York The 2011 retrofit of New York’s Empire State Building transformed the approximately 80-year-old building into a landmark of green construction and placed it in the top 25 percent of US commercial office buildings in terms of energy efficiency. The retrofit implemented cutting-edge technologies, including windows, automated monitoring and controls systems, and high- efficiency cooling equipment. The $13.2 million invested in energy efficiency reduced annual energy consumption by 38 % generating a payback period of 3.5 years and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 100,000 metric tons over 15 years. Case Study New York Retrofitting

18. Today, over 4,700 climate change actions are in effect in the nearly 60 Cities of the C40, with almost 1,500 further actions under active consideration • Example Shifting traffic lighting to LED modules: • are brighter, last up to 15 times longer, and reduce energy consumption by up to 88%, which means fewer burnouts and safer traffic City to City collaboration LED lighting pilot project in New York City, followed by pilots in Sydney, Tianjin, London, & Kolkata Low carbon lighting technology is ready to be brought to scale.

19. Participant Organisations and PeopleLondon Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC): Public body responsible for the remediation, management and marketing of the London Olympic Park. • Shell UK: London HQ of global group of energy and petrochemical company. • Greater London Authority (GLA): Responsible for governance of London’s transport and economic development. • Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA): - UK government department representative from National and Local Air Quality Atmosphere and Local Environment Programme • Ken Livingstone - Mayor of London 2000 - 2008 • Transport for London (TfL) - Unitary Transport Authority for London directly answerable to GLA • Cambridge Clean Tech Cluster - Intermediary business advisory network of companies specialising in clean technology in the Cambridge and surrounding area. • National EPSRC Centre for Industrial Sustainability • The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research - Research centre part of the Department of Land Economy at Cambridge University Our own experience Study Tour of the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau 25-26 June 2013

20. Study Tour of the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau 25-26 June 2013

21. Outcomes

22. Hollow Urbanisation • China must avoid Hollow urbanisation - urbanisation without any of the benefits of urbanisation  • Not enough density - too much sprawl • China Density figures - average 19%, with industrial zones inside cities, as much as 40- to 50% • New York - 7% London - 2.7%. However, this took cities in the US and Europe 150+ years. • Can China a complete the exercise in just 50 years? The answer to the problem of urbanisation may be more urbanisation • China must re-engineer its pattern of urban development • Densification • Mixed-Use • Greater compact forms • Change incentives for growth - promotion through sustainable initiatives  • Transport links between cities and inside cities • Satellite city structures (more cities of a 200,000 size) • Focus on liveability and let demand drive sustainable solutions

23. Perhaps in the first instance the ‘sustainable city’ might be the liveable city which prizes all those attributes of quality of life, walkability, work-life balance, and cultural celebration. “The innovativeness of the megacities will depend in part on their openness to ideas and people, and on liveability” ( Yusuf & Nabeshima,Two Dragon Heads, 2009) How might China define and determine this new urban century?