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Trade Demand Forecasts Q4 2006

Confidential. Trade Demand Forecasts Q4 2006. Prepared by: Group Research & Development (GRD) January 2006. Table of Contents. 0.0 : Global Trade Index 1.0 : Transpacific Trade 2.0 : Asia Europe Trade 3.0 : Transatlantic Trade 4.0 : Latin America-North America Trade

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Trade Demand Forecasts Q4 2006

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  1. Confidential Trade Demand ForecastsQ4 2006 Prepared by: Group Research & Development (GRD) January 2006

  2. Table of Contents • 0.0 : Global Trade Index • 1.0 : Transpacific Trade • 2.0 : Asia Europe Trade • 3.0 : Transatlantic Trade • 4.0 : Latin America-North America Trade 5.0 : Intra Asia Trade

  3. 0.0 :Global Trade Index

  4. Global Trade Index • Global trade growth is estimated to grow by 10.4% in 2006, and then moderate slightly going into 2007, in line with the expected moderation in world economic growth from an estimated 3.9% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2007 • All the major trade lanes are likely show growth moderation following a strong year in 2006. • China’s trade with the rest of the world are expected to remain a key contributor to global trade growth in 2007, driven by demand from developed countries, especially EU and Japan, as well as it’s demand for semi-processed goods and raw materials, particularly from Asia.

  5. 1.0 : TRANSPACIFIC TRADE ROUTE

  6. TPEB • TPEB trade decelerated to 9.1% in 3Q 06 from 19.2% though growth was still healthy. • The deceleration in growth was in line with the slowdown in US economic growth to 3.0% in 3Q, compared to 3.5% in 2Q. • Going forward, continued weakness in the housing market is expected to impact negatively on consumer and capital spending, though declining gasoline prices may help. • China remained the main exporter, although its contribution to growth fell by 6.2% pts alone in 3Q.

  7. TPWB • TPWB trade maintained growth at about 2.8% in 3Q 06, the momentum of growth is likely to continue into 2007, supported by the continued needs to import raw materials, machinery and agricultural products to meet industrial needs, as the world’s production center remains in Asia. The major importers that contributed to growth in 3Q are Hong Kong and Taiwan. China is also a major importer though its contribution fell quite sharply in 3Q. • Going forward, Asian economies, led by China and India, are expected to continue expand albeit more moderate as the Chinese government has already taking steps to cool down over-heated sectors.

  8. 2.0 : ASIA EUROPE TRADE

  9. ASEU (North, Eastern & Central Europe) - • After five years of stubbornly slow growth, the euro area economy has shown signs of a strong recovery since the beginning of the year. In tandem, ASEU trade expanded further by 12.7% in 3Q 06, albeit lower than 2Q. China was the main exporter in 3Q. • In 4Q 06, employment grew at a healthy pace, and a substantial rise in consumer confidence led to a fall in household saving rates. Capacity utilisation was moderately above its long-term average, creating demand for new investment in fixed assets. This points to continued demand for imports from Europe. Nonetheless, the pace is set to slow next year as interest rates are expected to rise more, fiscal policy will be tightened in key countries (notably Germany and Italy), the euro is rising, and export growth should slow.

  10. ASEU (Med) • Demand from Med Europe was very strong; growth was phenomenal at 32.5% in 3Q 06. China was the main exporter. The key importing countries contributing to growth in 3Q are Spain, Italy and Ukraine. • However, the balance of risks is on the downside. Housing markets in several euro area countries, most importantly in Spain, have become substantially overvalued, leaving the risk of a correction, with substantial negative repercussions for residential investment and consumer demand. The British housing market suffered through a mild correction a couple of years ago, but have since rebounded. In a weak growth environment, though, house price appreciation is unlikely to be sustained anywhere.

  11. ASEU (Combined North and Med Europe)

  12. EUAS (North, Central & Eastern Europe) • Asian containerized imports from North, Central and Eastern Europe grew 4.3% in 3Q 06, slightly slower as compared to 5.7% in 2Q. China is the main importer, contributing 11.1% pts to growth. China’s GDP growth was a sizzling 10.6% in the first half of 2006, and continued at a pace of 10.7% in the third quarter. • Going forward, we expect continued steady growth for Asian imports. Asia will need to meet her industrial needs and infrastructure development needs as the economies are expected to remain healthy. We expect some moderation in China next year, mostly because of the government’s measures to dampen investment spending. Strong growth in China is currently partly fuelled by overinvestment in certain sectors.

  13. EUAS (Med) • 3Q 06 saw a significant increase in EUAS (Med) trade growth. Growth picked up to 14.8% from 6.6% on average in the first half of 2006. China alone contributed 19.7% pts in growth. We expect healthy growth right into 2007 as a result of the growing economies in Asia. High savings and/or low gross fixed investment have allowed emerging markets to run external surpluses and previous strong export-led growth has also bolstered demand in many Asian economies.

  14. EUAS (Combined North and Med Europe)

  15. 3.0 : TRANSATLANTIC TRADE

  16. TAWB (North Europe) • TAWB (North Europe) trade slowed to 2.6% in 3Q 06. Germany contributed 1.8% pts to growth. Over the medium term, we expect a moderate growth in line with the slower growth in the US.

  17. TAWB (Med) • Mediterranean export growth fell back to -1.6% in 3Q 06 after somewhat recovering in 2Q. Italy, its largest exporter dragged down growth by 2.1% pts. • Going forward, we expect growth to dip slightly to 1.5% in 2007, in line with overall US economic performance. • US consumption is expected to slow further as the housing market weakens, although business investment should rebound against the background of strong profits and limited spare capacity. Risks, however, are slanted to the downside.

  18. TAEB (North Europe) • Growth of North Europe’s imports from US fell to a mere 1.1% in 3Q 06. The major drag came from UK whose poor imports performance deducted 2.2% pts off growth. This was in spite of UK posted a 2-year high economic growth of 2.8% in 3Q. The strong growth was driven by the services sector rather than the manufacturing sector. We remain conservative about the near term outlook. Europe still remain exposed to the possibility of sharp currency appreciation that could undercut exports and overall growth.

  19. TAEB (Med) • Med Europe’s imports from across the Atlantic fell back to -1.0% growth in 3Q 06 after a decent 6.3% in 2Q. Israel and Spain were the strongest importers while Turkey proved to be a drag on growth. • We are still cautious about the outlook especially when housing markets appear to be over-valued in some European countries. • We expect very modest growth of 0.0% in 2006, due to a weak start last year. Growth should inch up higher to 2.7% this year.

  20. 4.0 : LATIN AMERICA-NORTH AMERICA TRADE

  21. LTAM • LTNB posted a marginal growth of 4.2% in 3Q 06 compared with modest growth of 1.1% in 2Q. Given the current slowing in US economic activity, we do not expect any significant improvement in trade performance going forward and forecast growth to be 2.0% for 2006 on average before moderating slightly to 1.8% this year. • LTSB growth increased to 8.4% in 3Q06 from 1.4% in 2Q, in line with a modestly healthy economic growth in Latin America. These economies have been bolstered by strong demand from the US earlier in the year and high prices for soft commodities. • However, structural weakness is expected to depress Latin American performance, especially in comparison with other emerging regions. Although the share of gross fixed investment in GDP has risen in Latin America, it remains low, and this will continue to depress the region's long-term growth potential. Of all the emerging markets, Latin America will bear the brunt of a US slowdown and global monetary policy tightening. We expect growth of 4.0% in 2006 before easing to 3.5% in 2007.

  22. 5.0 : INTRA ASIA TRADE

  23. INTRA-ASIA • The Far East and Middle Eastern trade is expected to see a moderation of its trade to sustainable levels. The moderation in Asian economies will also see a moderation of imports of semi-intermediates such as petrochemicals from Middle East. • Oil prices have eased but should still keep oil rich Middle East economies importing finished products from Far East, though the growth may moderate somewhat. • Intra Asia trade is expected to grow 9.3% in 2006 and 9.1% in 2007 driven largely by final demand in China. Moreover, the Asian economies have undertaken disruptive economic restructuring to move up the value chain to better complement the Chinese economy rather than compete with it. This should enhance the Intra regional trade. The factor that could undermine the robust trade is a drastic slowdown in the Chinese economy. • We expect the trade between Indian Subcon and Far East to remain healthy in 2007. Growth will continue to be propelled by continued economic growth in these two regions. The agricultural sector of Indian Subcon should do well and will support private consumption. There are very few signs of overheating in the Indian economy although growth is likely to moderate slightly over the course of 2007. Source: Far East/Mid East are based on Conf Stats, Intra Far East and Far East/Indian Subcon based on Global Insight

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