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Uncharted Territory: What’s New for 2012 Redistricting

Uncharted Territory: What’s New for 2012 Redistricting. Presented by: David Wasserman Cook Political Report February 2011 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict. Five Redistricting Frontiers. New Census Data New Technology New Reforms

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Uncharted Territory: What’s New for 2012 Redistricting

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  1. Uncharted Territory:What’s New for 2012 Redistricting Presented by: David WassermanCook Political Report February 2011 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.comWeb: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict

  2. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  3. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  4. Better Know a District (Or: Apportionment in the Age of Colbert)

  5. But Wait, There’s New Data • Explosion in Hispanic/Latino Population, especially in TX, CA, FL • Total Population (TPOP) vs. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) • New: American Community Survey (ACS) 1, 3 & 5 Year Census Estimates • Which Data to Use?

  6. Texas: Send in the Lawyers…

  7. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  8. There’s (Not Just One) App for That • Proliferation of Do-It-Yourself Redistricting

  9. But Will It Change the Outcome? • One Thing’s for Sure: More Public Scrutiny

  10. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  11. California: Props 11 & 20 • New 14-Member Citizens’ Commission • 5 D, 5 R, 4 Neither • 9/14 Required to Pass • What’s it add up to? 53 Very Scared Incumbents

  12. Florida: “Fair Districts” Amendments • Districts should not “favor or disfavor” incumbents or political parties and should conform to existing county, city boundaries • Brown (D) & Diaz-Balart (R) odd bedfellows suit • Gov. Scott (R) withdrawal of preclearance request

  13. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  14. Let the Games Begin • Republicans hold authority to redraw 196 congressional districts, Democrats just 49 • GOP not likely to build significantly on their House majority, but will shore up 2010 gains • Best GOP opportunities: NC, GA, PA • Best Dem opportunities: IL, FL, TX

  15. North Carolina: 7-6 D to 10-3 R? • Four Dems at Risk: Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler

  16. Illinois: 11-8 R to 12-6 D? • Nine GOP at Risk: Bobby Schilling, Aaron Schock, Joe Walsh, Judy Biggert, Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Tim Johnson, Bob Dold, Don Manzullo

  17. Five Redistricting Frontiers • New Census Data • New Technology • New Reforms • New GOP Authority • New Democratic Oversight

  18. First Time a Democratic Justice Dept. Will Oversee Redistricting • 1982: Reagan • 1992: Bush • 2002: Bush • 2012: Obama

  19. How Aggressive Will the DOJ Be? • And how many states will go another route?

  20. The House • Bottom Line: GOP nets 0-5 seats, but leaves fewer targets for Dems

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