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Hitting ‘em where they are

Hitting ‘em where they are. Peeling back the veil on baseball’s greatest statistical mystery. Words of wisdom. “Hit ‘em where they ain’t”. Pitching to contact.

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Hitting ‘em where they are

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  1. Hitting ‘em where they are Peeling back the veil on baseball’s greatest statistical mystery

  2. Words of wisdom

  3. “Hit ‘em where they ain’t”

  4. Pitching to contact • Don’t try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls. It’s more democratic. —Crash Davis, “Bull Durham,” 1988

  5. Vörös: Hungarian for “Eureka”

  6. “Fascist” (Defense-independent) • Strikeouts • Walks • Home runs • Hit by pitch • “Democratic” (Defense-dependent) • Singles • Doubles • Triples • Fielded outs

  7. Which of these is not like the others

  8. Madness without method 1999 2000

  9. DIPS 1.0

  10. “I feel stupid for having not realized it 30 years ago…Voros’s realization has become one of the pivotal points in the history of sabermetrics.” —Bill James, Boston Red Sox

  11. Exceptions: Knuckleballers

  12. Aces

  13. Minor leaguers

  14. Nolan Ryan’s BABIP, year by year

  15. Fielding Independent Pitching

  16. Statz on the Interwebs

  17. I got it

  18. Popping up year after year (2010-11)

  19. Popups in 2010 v. BABIP in 2011

  20. Big whiffer

  21. An A grade for Z-Contact

  22. Z-Contact in 2010 v. BABIP in 2011

  23. Recency bias • To predict Z-Contact in a given year, I use:

  24. Everything is relative .003 above league average… .019 below teammates’ average

  25. Forecast popup rate vs. BABIP above teammates, 2005-11

  26. Forecast Z-Contact vs. BABIP above teammates, 2005-11

  27. Forecast BABIP above team vs. actual, 2005-11

  28. Most seasons projected for BABIP >.015 below teammates, 2005-11

  29. Who da man 2008 forecast BABIP: .043 below teammates 2008 actual BABIP: .037 below teammates Lifetime BABIP: .254

  30. Most seasons projected for BABIP >.007 above teammates, 2005-11

  31. Glutton for punishment Qualifying seasons: 2 Rank among 387 projected seasons: 379 (2010) and 382 (2009) Lifetime BABIP: .323 Rank among 49 active pitchers with at least 1,000 IP: 49

  32. Overfitting: “The most important scientific problem you’ve never heard of” —Nate Silver, “The Signal and the Noise”, 2012

  33. Forecast BABIP aboveteam vs. actual, 2012

  34. BABIP predictor ♥ Jered Weaver 2012 forecast: .041 belowteammates 2012 result: .042 belowteammates 2012 BABIP: .241

  35. Forecast BABIP aboveteam vs. actual, 2012, excludingJeredWeaver

  36. 2012: We have a winner

  37. The ultimate prize

  38. Swing and a miss 

  39. All lefty soft-tossersare not created equal High projected BABIP Low projected BABIP

  40. Thank you for your interest! • Please feel free to contact me at DanRosenheck@economist.com.

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