M ulti- A gent C omplex S ystems - wide range of ideas, techniques and applications in

1. Multi-Agent Complex Systems - wide range of ideas, techniques and applications in • Health (disease spread), - Biology (immune system)- Culture (economic value of cultural environment), - -- Governance …Desert Reclaim, Economic Sustainability, Financial Stability Real Estate Policy, Immigration effects,Social Policy… - cannot be even enumerated in a short talk. This talk limited to: specific examples of theoretical scientific concepts(even rigorous theorems)leading to concrete applications of interest to policy makers(most of the present audience)

2. Theoretical abstract: Multi-Agent Logistic systemsdisplay - the spontaneous emergence of spatio-temporal localized phases that break spontaneously the translational space time symmetry and - the emergence of resilient collective objects with adaptive behavior that have fractal / scaling / singular geometry and lead to intermittent (Levy) fluctuations of the global system This is proven both numerically and theoretically

3. Application abstract: The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies-singular local elements of growth(even at early stages where, as whole, the system seems in regress). - spatio-temporal patterns of resourcesand- socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanismsleading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition). In the concrete case of post-liberalization Poland.- identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth - prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to widening social inequality and economic instability (but also to novelty emergence). The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development. - Propose extension of study to other regions (Piemonte…)

4. Logistic Equation (Mathus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster Growth ~a Size - Nonlinear Terms(Competion/Saturation) “almost all the social phenomena… obey thelogistic growth”Elliot W Montroll I would urge…logistic equationearly in the education … in the everyday world ofpolitics and economicsLord Robert May Solution: Size a > 0 a < 0

5. Multi-Agent Complex Systems Paradigm: In reality, in Growth ~a Size, a is the result ofmany spatio-temporal distributed discrete individual contributions rather then totally uniform and static

6. Multi-Agent Complex Systems (MACS) Implications: one can prove rigorously that the DE prediction (uniform spatial and temporaldecay): Logistic MACS<a>< 0prediction Logistic Differential Equation a<0 Is ALWAYS wrong ! Instead: emergence of singularspatio-temporal localizedcollective islands with adaptive self-serving behavior => resilience and sustainabilityeven for <a> << 0!

7. ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 0 Andrzej Nowak lab Seemingly similar regions before liberalization Poland Post-Liberalization Social-Economic-Political Development: MACS wins over DE

8. ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 1 Emerges islandof growth Large region of decay 1989 1990 1991 1992 Nowak First year: Global Decay; - MACS predicts Future Growth- DE predicts continuous decay (based on the same Logistsic parameters !) MACS DE

9. ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 2 1989 1990 1991 1992 Most regions are devastated Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse But MACS sees already nuclei of growth

10. ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 3 Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country 1989 1990 1991 1992 MACS MACS wins over DE (for the same Logistic parameters) DE

11. What were the A’s ?

12. Nowak EDUCATION (‘88)(partial answer) What were the A’s ?

13. Economic Growth is in turn “A’s”for Political Transformation Nowak Voting for Reformist Parties

14. fractal space-time distribution Prediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg

15. Desertification/ Reclaim patterns (patchy organic matter distribution) Lavee+Sarah Mediterranean; uniform Semi-arid; patchy Desert;uniform 500mm 200mm

16. Piemonte Romania Piemonte Belarus

17. Infinite Competition Range =Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations) Intermediate Range Zero Range=Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable))

18. Distributionof individual wealth ~(by Prediction) Distribution of market fluctuations Levy Social equityis good for the financial stability!

19. Other Crucial real Fact: Scaling; Power laws No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern…Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics Pareto’s curve … great generalizations of human knowledge.Snyder 1939 WALMART GATES Buffet ALLEN 20 Dell real world is controlled by the ‘tails’ of distributions… by the exceptional, not the mean; by the catastrophe, not the steady by the very rich, not the ‘middle class’. We need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking Phil W Anderson Zipf plot of the wealths of the investors in the Forbes 400 of 2003 vs. their ranks. The corresponding model results are shown in the in set.

20. Theorem : Multi-Agent Complex Logistic systems=>Pareto Laws Experimental Confirmation Nr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimens Nr of Species vs their life timeNr of Languages vs number of speakers Nr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. population Nr of product types vs. number of units sold Nr of treatments vs number of patients treated Nr of patients vs cost of treatment Nr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenth Nr of meteorites vs their sizeNr of voids in universe vs their size Nr of galaxies vs their sizeNr of rives vs the size of their basin The 100year oldPareto puzzle is solved by combiningthe 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterraequation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics

21. Conclusions • The organic connection between a few classical complexity features Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations,Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns,Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster systemPercolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects is explained within a comprehensive coherent framework. • Its applications in monitoring and inducingstable growth and sustainable development is demonstrated.