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Marine Pollution Monitoring and Prediction

Marine Pollution Monitoring and Prediction. Bruce Hackett, met.no Eric Comerma, Applied Science Assoc. Pierre Daniel, M é t é o-France Hitoshi Ichikawa, Japan Met. Agency. Outline. What is the marine pollution problem? Focus → marine oil pollution What use are GODAE products?

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Marine Pollution Monitoring and Prediction

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  1. Marine Pollution Monitoring and Prediction Bruce Hackett, met.no Eric Comerma, Applied Science Assoc. Pierre Daniel, Météo-France Hitoshi Ichikawa, Japan Met. Agency GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  2. Outline • What is the marine pollution problem? • Focus → marine oil pollution • What use are GODAE products? • Some examples from oil spill forecasting • Future perspectives Aim: Demonstrate the use and benefits of using GODAE ocean data GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  3. Chocolate mousse à la Prestige – an emulsion What is the marine pollution problem? • A wide range of pollutants in the marine environment • Main impacts are: - harm to life, property and commerce- environmental degradation • Marine oil pollution is a good paradigm for pollution monitoring and prediction: • Indisputably human-caused • Catastrophic events (spectacular) • … and long-term dosages (insidious) • Can be ugly, deadly, illegal and costly • Often transnational • Well-established preparedness; national and international services GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  4. Heavy seas during Statfjord A spill, Dec 2007 What’s the role of GODAE? (1) • We need monitoring and prediction for: • emergency response to spill events • impact assessment, both for specific events and for scenarios • Both need a good description of the metocean conditions • Weather, sea-state, ocean circulation • Observations, hindcast, nowcast and forecast GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  5. What’s the role of GODAE? (2) GODAE is important since: • GODAE systems are providers of observations and ocean circulation forecasts. • GODAE can also provide archival data for past events and statistical studies. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  6. GODAE! What’s the role of GODAE? (3)The simple view of emergency forecast systems Initial and forcingdata User interface Drift model Output data GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  7. Emergency response servicesCritical constraints • Emergency oil spill response services depend on quick and reliable access to drift prognoses • response time <30 min • 24/7/365 availability • Critical component for drift forecasting is real-time access to accurate prognostic forcing data: • NWP models: wind, air temp  • Wave models: Hs, Stokes drift  • Ocean models: currents, temp and salinity  • Access & Accuracy: main challenges to operational ocean forecasting! GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  8. GODAE dataWhat use are they to oil spill forecasting? • “Problem” • GODAE provides data at global to basin scales • Oil spill events are typically near-coastal • Oil spill services are national, with local data sources • Answer: Use GODAE data to help improve the prediction service by • providing boundary conditions for nesting local models • providing for direct forcing (alternatives, backup, ensembles) • extending the spatial and temporal reach of services Examples follow GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  9. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA-SA • ASA-SA as a commercial middle-user: • providing MetOcean data downstream services • facilitator, aggregating added value into the data stream, providing dedicated forecasting services • to understand end-client needs, to deal with constraints and data availability limitations • bridging the gap between global data providers (GODAE) and local, very specific user needs (harbour, offshore platforms, etc.) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  10. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA-SA ASA-SA ocean and oil spill forecasting system for Petrobras, based on nesting in global ocean data products GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  11. SLDMB’s Aggregation of short and long range CODAR Surface Radar Global NCOM and ADCIRC via EDS Aggregation Service GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA-SA Aggregation to cover data requirements Global Product Coastal Product Aggregated Product Regional Product GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  12. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA-SA buoy validation GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  13. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA-SA buoy validation GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  14. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA forecasting service Land / Sea distribution Numerical weather model Global Spectral Model(GSM) Oil Spill Prediction Model Initial step Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Surface wind direction / speed Data input Transport by wind Stokes drift Advection by current Diffusion Evaporation Emulsification Wave condition significant wave height predominant wave period predominant wave direction Current & SST Time integral Ocean data assimilation model (COMPASS-KMOVE) Numerical wave model Global Wave Model (GWM) Coastal Wave Model (CWM) Calculation of positions of the pollution source Since Sep. 2008 Grid resolution : 2 - 30 km Time step : 1 minute Max. calculation time : 192 hour Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Results GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  15. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA forecasting service Land / Sea distribution Numerical weather model Global Spectral Model(GSM) Oil Spill Prediction Model MOVE ocean model: • A GODAE contribution • Development aided by GODAE collaboration • Direct forcing and nesting Initial step Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Surface wind direction / speed Data input Transport by wind Stokes drift Advection by current Diffusion Evaporation Emulsification Wave condition significant wave height predominant wave period predominant wave direction Current & SST Time integral Ocean data assimilation model (COMPASS-KMOVE) Numerical wave model Global Wave Model (GWM) Coastal Wave Model (CWM) Calculation of positions of the pollution source Since Sep. 2008 Grid resolution : 2 - 30 km Time step : 1 minute Max. calculation time : 192 hour Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Results GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  16. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA ocean forecast model (GODAE) COMPASS-K MOVE Tocharian strait Kuroshio route Tokai region GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  17. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA oil drift validation 2001 Feb. 2002 Feb. 1999 Jan. 2001 Nov. 1999 Nov. Standard : drifting buoy for oil spill tracking radius : 20 cm thickness : 5 cm weight : 4 kg material : expanded polyester GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  18. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA oil drift validation : simulation with COMPASS-K : simulation with MOVE-WNP : oil pursuit buoy : Case of East China Sea in November, 2001 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  19. Observations Cedre, MRCC, PREMAR MOTHY Atmospheric models (ALADIN, ARPEGE, IFS) GODAE and oil spill forecasting – EuropeMétéo-France forecasting service Schematic of Météo-France general framework with access to local and GODAE prognostic ocean data sets. Bathymetry Tide Forecasts Images, GIS, Google Earth Internet, email, fax Ocean models (MERCATOR, MFS) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  20. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – EuropeMeteo-France – Prestige simulations Prestige case snapshot 2002-12-13 12 UTC. Prestige trajectory = black line MOTHY (wind only) = blue MOTHY+Mercator = greenMOTHY+FOAM = red. Observed slicks = black triangles Positive impact of adding GODAE current data (Mercator and FOAM) in waters where the large-scale circulation has a significant impact. However, there are large differences between the current data sets (Mercator and FOAM). First use of GODAE / Mersea data was most encouraging GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  21. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – EuropeMeteo-France, met.no, UCY – Mersea simulations 6 PTR buoys Western Mediterranean sea 3 Argosphere buoys Eastern Mediterranean sea GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  22. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – EuropeMeteo-France, met.no – Mersea simulations Findings: • Often large differences in the predicted current fields • Drifter trajectories are better reproduced in stable and well marked circulation (left) • Large discrepancies between the predicted currents in the open ocean reflects the fact that the current field is dominated by unstable mesoscale dynamics (right) • The most accurate results are obtained when applying currents from a local, fine-scale ocean model nested in basin-scale data. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  23. GODAE and oil spill forecasting – EuropeMeteo-France, met.no – Mersea simulations MFS 1/16th Mercator MED 1/15th Mercator Global 1/4th All fields are daily means for 2007-09-24 00 UTC GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  24. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectivesData access and accuracy • Access to ocean data • Immensely improved during GODAE lifetime! • Global GODAE models → global coverage for any oil spill model. • Demonstrated in projects (e.g. Mersea) and by individual middle users (e.g. ASA) … • … still need to improve standards for access and products • Any data policy hindrances remaining? GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  25. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectivesData access and accuracy • Accuracy of ocean data • Still the main source of oil spill forecast error. • GODAE assimilation systems continue to improve forecast accuracy in the blue ocean (e.g., Kuroshio)… • … but still gross errors in some eddy-rich areas. • Need more detailed currents in coastal and shelf seas → • Higher resolution models • Nesting is preferable to direct use • Tides must be included at some stage • Improved forcing from atmosphere (high-resolution, high freq data) • Assimilation of current data (HF radar, drifters) • Need measures of accuracy to propagate into oil spill forecast results! GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  26. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectivesAddressing accuracy Using ensembles to address accuracy / confidence issues: • Single-model – perturbations on one of the models (oil drift and/or forcing) costly! • Multi-model – aggregating several independent oil spill forecasts • Multi-forcing – same oil spill model, different forcing data (enabled by GODAE!) • A combination of the above • Requires good analysis and/or interpretation methods GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  27. End GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  28. Comparison between MOVE-WNP and COMPASS-K GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  29. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  30. Professional Client Thin/Web Client NetCDF Data OGC WMS/WxS Internet Web Service XML Request Web Services • Spatial / Temporal Aggregation • Modelling Services (Oil, SAR) • Resources Monitoring Remote Sources (public/private, e.g. NOAA, Global/Regional OOS) Winds Currents Drifters Weather Modelling Engine Environmental Data Store Catalog Server EDS GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South AmericaASA Environmental Data System GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

  31. February18, 2002 February20, 2002 February21, 2002 February19, 2002 February22, 2002 February23, 2002 February25, 2002 February24, 2002 GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West PacificJMA model drift validation : track of oil pursuit buoy : simulation of MOVE-WNP : Case of southeast sea of Hokkaido in February 2002 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

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